Upside case
Bull case
$1534+46.3%
BLK would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering BLK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1312
+25.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$874 – $1534
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $162.7B
BLK price targets
Three scenarios for where BLK stock could go
Current
~$1049
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1049
Bear
$874
Base
$1375
Bull
$1534
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1375+31.1%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$874-16.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push BLK down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BlackRock, Inc.
BLK · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, operating a global investment platform that manages money for institutional and individual investors. It generates revenue primarily through investment advisory fees — about 80% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from performance fees, securities lending, and technology services. Its key competitive advantage is the massive scale and network effects of its Aladdin technology platform, which serves both its own investment operations and hundreds of external clients as a risk management ecosystem.
Market Cap
$162.7B
Net Income TTM
$6.1B
BLK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
90%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$11.55/$11.36
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$13.16/$12.24
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$11.93/$12.55
Revenue
$7.0B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$12.53/$11.65
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $11.55/$11.36 | +1.7% | $6.5B/$6.3B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.16/$12.24 | +7.5% | $7.0B/$6.8B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.93/$12.55 | -4.9% | $7.0B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $12.53/$11.65 | +7.6% | $6.7B/$6.6B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$24.7B
+21.2% YoY
FY2
$27.7B
+12.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$48.77
+25.3% YoY
FY2
$55.08
+12.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.9B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BLK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BLK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $20.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Investment Advice
78.9%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
65.7%
+12.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Investment Advice is the largest disclosed segment at 78.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 11.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 65.7%, up 12.7% YoY.
BLK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $767 — implies -27.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
27.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BLK
25.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BLK
25.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+87% premium
vs BLK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.0x
vs
5Y Average
22.8x
+9% premium
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+3%
Financial Services
10.4x
+90%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-1%
Financial Services
13.3x
+87%
5Y Avg
22.8x
+9%
PEG Ratio
3.07x
S&P 500
1.72x
+79%
Financial Services
1.01x
+204%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+33%
Financial Services
11.4x
+77%
5Y Avg
18.0x
+12%
Price/FCF
34.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+64%
Financial Services
10.6x
+228%
5Y Avg
30.3x
+14%
Price/Sales
8.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+155%
Financial Services
2.2x
+258%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+15%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
S&P 500
1.87%
+4%
Financial Services
2.70%
-28%
5Y Avg
2.21%
-12%
| Metric | BLK | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 19.1x | 10.4x+90% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.0x | 25.1x | 13.3x+87% | 22.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.07x | 1.72x+79% | 1.01x+204% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.3x | 15.2x+33% | 11.4x+77% | 18.0x+12% |
| Price/FCF | 34.6x | 21.1x+64% | 10.6x+228% | 30.3x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 8.0x | 3.1x+155% | 2.2x+258% | 6.9x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.21% |
BLK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBLK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BLK generates 9.9% ROE and 3.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$38.93
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$12.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$20.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
48.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
152M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBLK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Downturns
BlackRock's AUM is highly correlated with global market performance. A significant downturn can reduce AUM, lower investment values, and trigger panicked investor withdrawals, directly cutting fee revenue. The magnitude of impact depends on the depth and duration of the market decline.
High Risk
Liquidity Crises
During market downturns, a surge in ETF redemptions could outpace the liquidity of underlying securities. This mismatch could force BlackRock to liquidate assets at distressed prices, impairing cash flow and potentially leading to regulatory scrutiny. The risk is amplified by the size of BlackRock's ETF offerings.
High Risk
Regulatory Reforms
Global and U.S. regulatory reforms may require operational changes, increasing compliance costs and exposing BlackRock to litigation. New rules could negatively affect AUM, revenue, and earnings, especially if they impose stricter capital or reporting requirements. The company’s size subjects it to heightened regulatory attention.
Medium
Aladdin Technology Platform
BlackRock’s growth depends heavily on its Aladdin platform, which is hosted on Microsoft Azure. Any disruption to Aladdin’s infrastructure or partnership terms could impair investment management services and fee generation. The platform’s complexity and reliance on external cloud services add operational risk.
Medium
Corporate & Contingent Liquidity
Failure to maintain adequate corporate and contingent liquidity could harm BlackRock’s ability to meet client redemptions, support AUM, and sustain earnings growth. Liquidity shortfalls would also limit the firm’s capacity to capitalize on market opportunities and could trigger regulatory concerns.
Lower
Overvaluation
BlackRock’s P/E and P/B ratios are higher than industry peers, suggesting the stock may be trading at a premium. If growth expectations fail to materialize, the share price could adjust downward, impacting shareholder returns. This valuation risk is primarily a market perception issue rather than an operational one.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BLK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership and AUM Growth
BlackRock remains the world’s largest asset manager, with assets under management reaching $13.464 trillion as of September 2025. This scale provides a competitive advantage and a stable fee‑based revenue base, with organic base fee growth consistently surpassing internal targets.
Strategic Innovation and Expansion
The firm is actively broadening its product suite, launching new ETFs focused on fixed‑income and alternative strategies. Its iShares ETF platform is a key driver, benefiting from the growing popularity of ETFs for liquidity and diversification, while BlackRock explores AI and tokenization technologies.
Favorable Market Conditions
Anticipated interest‑rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to boost investment across asset classes. BlackRock’s extensive fixed‑income portfolio is well‑positioned to benefit from bond price appreciation in a low‑rate environment.
Financial Performance and Growth Projections
Revenue and AUM have shown strong year‑over‑year growth, and analysts project continued revenue expansion. Earnings are also expected to rise in the coming year, reinforcing the company’s growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BLK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1048.84
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$906.57
+15.7% from the low
52-Week High
$1219.94
-14.0% from the high
1 Month
+9.32%
3 Month
-0.57%
YTD
-3.3%
1 Year
+13.9%
3Y CAGR
+17.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.3%
10Y CAGR
+11.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BLK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 11.2x median
+76% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.2%
vs +2.8% median
+659% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BLK BLK BlackRock, Inc. | $162.7B | 19.7x | +21.2% | — | Buy | +25.1% |
STT STT State Street Corporation | $42.0B | 12.0x | +2.8% | — | Buy | +7.9% |
BEN BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $15.8B | 11.2x | -1.3% | — | Hold | -5.6% |
IVZ IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $11.9B | 10.4x | -0.6% | — | Hold | +10.8% |
AMG AMG Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | $8.1B | 9.2x | +15.4% | — | Buy | +9.2% |
TRO TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22.7B | 11.3x | +2.9% | — | Hold | -2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BLK Dividend and Capital Return
BLK returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 1.95% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
Payout Ratio
48.7%
How BLK Splits Its Return
Div 1.95%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.95%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$20.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
152M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.73 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $20.84 | +2.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | $20.40 | +2.0% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $20.00 | +2.5% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $19.52 | +18.2% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsBLK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1312, implying +25.1% from the current price of $1049. The bear case scenario is $874 and the bull case is $1534.
02What is the BLK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BLK is $1312 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1393 (+32.8% from today), and the low-end target is $1200 (+14.4%). The base case model target is $1375.
03Is BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) stock overvalued in 2026?
BLK trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BLK in 2026 are: (1) Market Downturns — BlackRock's AUM is highly correlated with global market performance. (2) Liquidity Crises — During market downturns, a surge in ETF redemptions could outpace the liquidity of underlying securities. (3) Regulatory Reforms — Global and U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BlackRock, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BLK will report consensus revenue of $24.7B (+21.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $48.77 (+25.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $27.7B in revenue.
06When does BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BLK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BlackRock, Inc. generate?
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) generated $3.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BLK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).