Upside case
Bull case
$202+94.0%
TROW would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
38
analysts
8 bullish · 6 bearish · 38 covering TROW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
24
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$101
-2.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$88 – $202
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.7B
TROW price targets
Three scenarios for where TROW stock could go
Current
~$104
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $104
Bear
$88
Base
$114
Bull
$202
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$114+9.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TROW — at roughly 12x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$88-15.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push TROW down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
TROW · NASDAQFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
T. Rowe Price is a global investment management firm that provides mutual funds, retirement plans, and other investment products to individuals and institutions. It generates revenue primarily through investment advisory fees — typically a percentage of assets under management — with additional income from administrative services and distribution fees. The company's competitive advantage lies in its long-term investment performance track record, strong brand reputation in active management, and deep client relationships built over decades.
Market Cap
$22.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
TROW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.24/$2.15
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.81/$2.54
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.46
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.52/$2.37
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.24/$2.15 | +4.2% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.81/$2.54 | +10.6% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.46 | -0.8% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.52/$2.37 | +6.3% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.5B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$7.7B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.90
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$10.15
+2.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.3B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TROW beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TROW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Asset Management
98.8%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Asset Management is the largest disclosed segment at 98.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.2% YoY.
TROW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $158 — implies +52.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
52.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TROW
11.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
55% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
TROW
11.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
16% discount
vs TROW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.3x
vs
5Y Average
13.7x
18% discount
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Financial Services
10.4x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-55%
Financial Services
13.3x
-16%
5Y Avg
13.7x
-18%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-50%
Financial Services
11.4x
-33%
5Y Avg
8.8x
-12%
Price/FCF
15.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-27%
Financial Services
10.6x
+45%
5Y Avg
17.5x
-13%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-1%
Financial Services
2.2x
+39%
5Y Avg
4.0x
-23%
Dividend Yield
4.91%
S&P 500
1.87%
+163%
Financial Services
2.70%
+82%
5Y Avg
4.47%
+10%
| Metric | TROW | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg TROW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.3x | 25.1x-55% | 13.3x-16% | 13.7x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7x | 15.2x-50% | 11.4x-33% | 8.8x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 15.3x | 21.1x-27% | 10.6x+45% | 17.5x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 2.2x+39% | 4.0x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.91% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 4.47% |
TROW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTROW Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TROW generates 17.6% ROE and 14.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.38
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
17.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
17.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.6%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$621M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.11
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
54.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
218M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageTROW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Net Outflows & Fund Performance
T. Rowe Price is experiencing persistent net outflows due to its focus on active funds, which are losing ground to passive investment options. This trend is exacerbated by the company's investment performance lagging behind benchmarks, particularly in U.S. equities, which negatively impacts its competitive standing and organic growth.
High Risk
Fee Compression
The asset management industry is facing a trend of declining fees, which is putting significant pressure on T. Rowe Price's profit margins. This fee compression could adversely affect the company's overall profitability and financial health.
High Risk
Deteriorating Business Model
Analysts have raised concerns that T. Rowe Price's business model is deteriorating due to the shift away from active management and its inability to adapt its fee structure. This situation raises alarms about the company's long-term cash flows and sustainability.
Medium
Rising Expenses
Inflationary pressures have led to increased operating expenses for T. Rowe Price, including higher wages and administrative costs. This has resulted in a deteriorating cost-to-income ratio, which could impact profitability.
Medium
Missed Earnings Estimates
T. Rowe Price has recently missed consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates, raising concerns about its future profitability. Continued misses could lead to further negative sentiment among investors.
Medium
Market Volatility
The value of T. Rowe Price's securities can fluctuate daily due to various market factors, leading to potential losses. This market risk is compounded by the company's relatively high beta, indicating greater volatility compared to the overall market.
Lower
Interest Rate & Currency Risk
Rising interest rates can negatively impact bond values, while fluctuations in currency exchange rates can affect investment gains or losses. These risks are particularly relevant given T. Rowe Price's diverse investment portfolio.
Lower
Geographic Concentration Risk
Investing a large portion of assets in specific geographic areas increases volatility and risk due to localized economic or political conditions. This concentration could expose T. Rowe Price to heightened risks in certain markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TROW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Growth Areas
T. Rowe Price is focusing on expanding its offerings in ETFs, alternative investments, and personalized retirement products. Partnerships and product development are expected to drive growth in assets under management (AUM) and fee revenue.
Margin Improvement and Share Buybacks
The company's strategy includes a view that margins can increase, and share buybacks are anticipated to reduce the number of outstanding shares. These factors combined are expected to support higher earnings.
Cost Management
T. Rowe Price has a demonstrated ability to manage costs effectively, even in challenging revenue environments. The company's commitment to low single-digit growth in non-market expenses in the coming years suggests a disciplined approach that could maintain or improve profit margins.
Flow Stabilization
A key catalyst for a potential re-rating of the stock is the stabilization of investment flows. Management is targeting flat to slightly positive net flows in 2025, supported by retirement assets, ETF momentum, and expansion into private markets.
Financial Strength
The company is described as cash-rich and debt-free, with a consistent dividend payment history and a current yield of approximately 4.84%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TROW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$104.11
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$85.51
+21.8% from the low
52-Week High
$118.22
-11.9% from the high
1 Month
+16.55%
3 Month
+13.14%
YTD
-0.5%
1 Year
+13.9%
3Y CAGR
-1.1%
5Y CAGR
-10.9%
10Y CAGR
+3.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TROW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 10.4x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs -0.6% median
+616% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRO TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22.7B | 11.3x | +2.9% | — | Hold | -2.8% |
BEN BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $15.8B | 11.2x | -1.3% | — | Hold | -5.6% |
IVZ IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $11.9B | 10.4x | -0.6% | — | Hold | +10.8% |
AMG AMG Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | $8.1B | 9.2x | +15.4% | — | Buy | +9.2% |
VRT VRTS Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | $959M | 5.6x | -8.6% | — | Hold | +13.8% |
BLK BLK BlackRock, Inc. | $162.7B | 19.7x | +21.2% | — | Buy | +25.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TROW Dividend and Capital Return
TROW returns 7.6% total yield, led by a 4.91% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
4.91%
Payout Ratio
54.8%
How TROW Splits Its Return
Div 4.91%
Buyback 2.7%
Dividend 4.91%Buybacks 2.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.11
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$621M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
218M
At 2.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.08 | +2.4% | 2.7% | 7.7% |
| 2024 | $4.96 | +1.6% | 1.5% | 6.0% |
| 2023 | $4.88 | +1.7% | 1.1% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $4.80 | -34.4% | 3.4% | 7.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsTROW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $101, implying -2.8% from the current price of $104. The bear case scenario is $88 and the bull case is $202.
02What is the TROW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TROW is $101 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+5.7% from today), and the low-end target is $89 (-14.5%). The base case model target is $114.
03Is T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) stock overvalued in 2026?
TROW trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TROW in 2026 are: (1) Net Outflows & Fund Performance — T. (2) Fee Compression — The asset management industry is facing a trend of declining fees, which is putting significant pressure on T. (3) Deteriorating Business Model — Analysts have raised concerns that T. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TROW will report consensus revenue of $7.5B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.90 (+5.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.7B in revenue.
06When does T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TROW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. generate?
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. TROW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.9% yield) and share repurchases ($621M TTM).