Upside case
Bull case
$487+227.5%
STT would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
State Street Corporation (STT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
18 bullish · 5 bearish · 37 covering STT
Strong Buy
1
Buy
17
Hold
14
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$160
+7.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$136 – $487
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.0B
STT price targets
Three scenarios for where STT stock could go
Current
~$149
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $149
Bear
$136
Base
$286
Bull
$487
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$286+92.5%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$136-8.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push STT down roughly 9% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
State Street Corporation
STT · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
State Street is a global financial services firm that provides investment servicing, investment management, and other financial solutions to institutional investors. It generates revenue primarily through investment servicing fees (around 60% of total revenue) and investment management fees (around 30%), with the remainder coming from trading services and net interest income. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale as one of the world's largest custodians—with over $40 trillion in assets under custody—and its entrenched relationships with institutional clients that create significant switching costs.
Market Cap
$42.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.0B
STT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.53/$2.35
Revenue
$5.8B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.78/$2.64
Revenue
$5.7B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.97/$2.84
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.84/$2.64
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.53/$2.35 | +7.7% | $5.8B/$3.4B | +72.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78/$2.64 | +5.3% | $5.7B/$3.5B | +66.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.97/$2.84 | +4.6% | $3.7B/$3.6B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.84/$2.64 | +7.6% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.6B
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$27.3B
+20.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.09
+26.5% YoY
FY2
$15.81
+20.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
STT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
STT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $13.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Investment Servicing
82.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.8%
+9.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Investment Servicing is the largest disclosed segment at 82.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.8%, up 9.9% YoY.
STT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $166 — implies +9.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STT
18.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
28% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
STT
18.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+36% premium
vs STT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.1x
vs
5Y Average
12.2x
+48% premium
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Financial Services
10.4x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-28%
Financial Services
13.3x
+36%
5Y Avg
12.2x
+48%
PEG Ratio
2.05x
S&P 500
1.72x
+20%
Financial Services
1.01x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
-9.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-161%
Financial Services
11.4x
-182%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
5.7x
—
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Financial Services
2.2x
-14%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-2%
Dividend Yield
2.30%
S&P 500
1.87%
+23%
Financial Services
2.70%
-15%
5Y Avg
3.28%
-30%
| Metric | STT | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg STT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 19.1x-37% | 10.4x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.1x | 25.1x-28% | 13.3x+36% | 12.2x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.05x | 1.72x+20% | 1.01x+103% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | -9.3x | 15.2x-161% | 11.4x-182% | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 5.7x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 2.2x-14% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.30% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.28% |
STT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
STT generates 10.8% ROE and 0.8% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.34
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
10.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$116.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$79.3B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
10.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.2%
Dividend
2.3%
Buyback
6.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.42
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
38.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
302M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSTT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
State Street’s Net Interest Income (NII) is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and changes in client deposit behavior. Monetary policy shifts can compress asset margins, directly impacting earnings.
High Risk
Market & Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical and market uncertainties can trigger volatility that affects asset valuations and client investment behaviors. This volatility can reduce assets under management and fee income.
High Risk
Technology Transformation Risk
The company’s massive technology transformation, including the State Street Alpha platform, exposes it to significant operational risk. Failures or delays could disrupt custody services and erode client confidence.
High Risk
Cyber Attack Exposure
State Street is vulnerable to cyber-attacks and security breaches, which could lead to significant costs, reputational damage, and business disruptions. A successful breach could compromise client data and regulatory compliance.
High Risk
Infrastructure Failure Risk
Reliance on technology infrastructure means that failures to update or maintain it, or vulnerabilities in its or partners’ systems, can be detrimental. Such failures could interrupt custody operations and client services.
High Risk
Custody Service Disruption
The core custody business is at risk if underlying technology fails. System outages could halt settlement processes and erode client trust.
Medium
G-SIB Compliance Costs
As a Global Systemically Important Bank, State Street faces stringent regulatory scrutiny and higher compliance costs. Evolving regulations across jurisdictions can increase operational expenses and affect strategic decisions.
Lower
Insider Activity
Recent insider selling is noted as a minor risk. While it may signal management concerns, its impact on financial performance is limited.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financials and Growth
State Street reported earnings per share of $2.97, surpassing analyst expectations. Revenue grew 7.5% YoY, while net income jumped 38% from 2023 to 2024. Assets under custody and administration rose to $46.56 trillion, an 11% increase year‑over‑year.
Strategic Investments in Alpha & Private Markets
The firm is investing in its integrated Alpha platform and Private Markets initiatives to drive organic growth and operational efficiencies. Platforms such as State Street Alpha and Charles River are expanding the company’s service offerings.
Scale and Market Position
State Street manages approximately $49 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $5.1 trillion in assets under management, positioning it as a cornerstone of global asset servicing.
Technical Strength and Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong uptrend, with key technical indicators suggesting further upside if support levels hold. Recent chart patterns indicate sustained bullish momentum.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$148.68
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$89.19
+66.7% from the low
52-Week High
$156.18
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
+14.19%
3 Month
+15.52%
YTD
+15.2%
1 Year
+64.2%
3Y CAGR
+29.5%
5Y CAGR
+11.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 14.9x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.8%
vs -1.8% median
+258% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STT STT State Street Corporation | $42.0B | 12.0x | +2.8% | — | Buy | +7.9% |
BK BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | $91.1B | 15.1x | -1.8% | — | Buy | +5.7% |
NTR NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $29.9B | 14.9x | -20.3% | — | Hold | -4.9% |
BEN BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $15.8B | 11.2x | -1.3% | — | Hold | -5.6% |
IVZ IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $11.9B | 10.4x | -0.6% | — | Hold | +10.8% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $285.5B | 15.5x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +8.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STT Dividend and Capital Return
STT returns capital mainly through $2.9B/year in buybacks (6.9% buyback yield), with a modest 2.30% dividend — combining for 9.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
9.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.9%
Dividend Yield
2.30%
Payout Ratio
38.4%
How STT Splits Its Return
Div 2.30%
Buyback 6.9%
Dividend 2.30%Buybacks 6.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.42
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
302M
At 6.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.12 | +45.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.14 | -18.9% | 9.8% | 13.3% |
| 2023 | $2.64 | +10.0% | 15.3% | 19.2% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | +10.1% | 5.7% | 9.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is State Street Corporation (STT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
State Street Corporation (STT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $160, implying +7.9% from the current price of $149. The bear case scenario is $136 and the bull case is $487.
02What is the STT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STT is $160 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+14.3% from today), and the low-end target is $144 (-3.1%). The base case model target is $286.
03Is State Street Corporation (STT) stock overvalued in 2026?
STT trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for State Street Corporation (STT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STT in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Sensitivity — State Street’s Net Interest Income (NII) is highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and changes in client deposit behavior. (2) Market & Geopolitical Risk — Geopolitical and market uncertainties can trigger volatility that affects asset valuations and client investment behaviors. (3) Technology Transformation Risk — The company’s massive technology transformation, including the State Street Alpha platform, exposes it to significant operational risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is State Street Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STT will report consensus revenue of $22.6B (+2.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.09 (+26.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $27.3B in revenue.
06When does State Street Corporation (STT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for STT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does State Street Corporation generate?
State Street Corporation (STT) had a free cash outflow of $6.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. STT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.3% yield) and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).