Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing BNTX more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BioNTech SE (BNTX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering BNTX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$137
+44.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.9B
BNTX price targets
Three scenarios for where BNTX stock could go
Current
~$95
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BioNTech SE
BNTX · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
BioNTech is a biotechnology company that develops mRNA-based immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases. It generates revenue primarily through COVID-19 vaccine sales — which accounted for the vast majority of its income during the pandemic — and through partnerships and licensing deals for its oncology pipeline. The company's key advantage is its pioneering mRNA technology platform, which enables rapid development of targeted therapies and vaccines.
Market Cap
$23.9B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
-$1.1B
Net Margin
-39.6%
BNTX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+29.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.82/$-2.69
Revenue
$307M/$178M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.14/$-1.12
Revenue
$1.8B/$844M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.38/$-0.22
Revenue
$1.1B/$902M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-2.26/$-2.52
Revenue
$137M/$207M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-1.82/$-2.69 | +32.3% | $307M/$178M | +72.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.14/$-1.12 | +87.5% | $1.8B/$844M | +110.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.38/$-0.22 | -72.7% | $1.1B/$902M | +18.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $-2.26/$-2.52 | +10.5% | $137M/$207M | -34.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.6B
-10.5% YoY
FY2
$2.5B
-2.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-3.96
+14.2% YoY
FY2
$-3.56
+10.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$277M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BNTX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BNTX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $262M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Sales
100.0%
-18.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
62.5%
-2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 18.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 62.5%, down 2.9% YoY.
BNTX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $54 — implies -44.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
44.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BNTX
-18.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
171% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BNTX
-18.0x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
181% discount
vs BNTX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-18.0x
vs
5Y Average
12.6x
243% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-18.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-171%
Healthcare
22.1x
-181%
5Y Avg
12.6x
-243%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
7.5x
—
Price/FCF
75.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+254%
Healthcare
18.7x
+305%
5Y Avg
46.2x
+64%
Price/Sales
7.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+136%
Healthcare
2.8x
+160%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+21%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
1.29%
—
| Metric | BNTX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BNTX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -18.0x | 25.2x-171% | 22.1x-181% | 12.6x-243% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | 7.5x |
| Price/FCF | 75.6x | 21.3x+254% | 18.7x+305% | 46.2x+64% |
| Price/Sales | 7.4x | 3.1x+136% | 2.8x+160% | 6.1x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | 1.29% |
BNTX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBNTX Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BNTX generates $277M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
77.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-45.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-39.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-4.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$277M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-4.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$7.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-4.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
251M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageBNTX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Clinical Trial Success
The ability to produce comparable clinical results in larger and more diverse trials is a significant risk for BioNTech SE. This includes challenges associated with developing and commercializing product candidates, particularly in oncology and infectious diseases.
High Risk
Evolving Demand for COVID-19 Vaccines
The COVID-19 vaccine has been a major revenue driver for BioNTech, but demand is expected to decrease significantly. This poses a substantial risk to future revenue streams as the market stabilizes post-pandemic.
High Risk
Profitability and Revenue
BioNTech reported a net loss in 2025 and has provided guidance for lower revenues in 2026, alongside increasing R&D and SG&A expenses. This deterioration in profitability and revenue outlook presents a critical risk to the company's financial health.
Medium
Regulatory Approvals
Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals for new vaccines and therapies is crucial for BioNTech's operations. Any delays or failures in this area could significantly impact the company's ability to generate revenue from its product pipeline.
Medium
Competition
The competitive landscape for developing and marketing vaccines and therapies is intense. BioNTech faces significant pressure from other biotech firms and pharmaceutical companies, which could affect its market share and pricing power.
Medium
Leadership Transition
A planned leadership transition introduces execution risks that could impact strategic direction and operational efficiency. Changes in leadership can lead to uncertainty and potential disruptions in ongoing projects.
Lower
Geopolitical Factors
Geopolitical risks can impact BioNTech's global trials and supply chains. Instability in regions where the company operates or sources materials could lead to delays and increased costs.
Lower
Resistance to Treatments
For cancer treatments, the challenge of tumor heterogeneity and resistance to therapies presents a significant hurdle. This could limit the effectiveness of BioNTech's oncology products and affect their market acceptance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BNTX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Pipeline and Oncology Focus
BioNTech is transitioning from its COVID-19 vaccine success to a more diversified biotechnology company with a significant focus on oncology. The company has a growing pipeline of late-stage candidates in areas like immunomodulators, antibody-drug conjugates, and mRNA cancer immunotherapies, with a BLA filing planned for 2026 for a HER2-targeted antibody-drug conjugate.
Strong Financial Position
BioNTech possesses a substantial cash reserve, reported at €17.2 billion at the end of 2025. This strong financial buffer allows the company to fund its transition without needing to access capital markets, while remaining cash flow positive in 2025, driven by milestone payments and residual COVID vaccine sales.
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
BioNTech has expanded its technology platform through strategic acquisitions and has a history of successful deal-making, such as the deal with Bristol Myers for BNT327, which generated significant upfront payments and royalty shares.
Operational Efficiency
Despite recent losses, BioNTech's gross margin remains strong, indicating profitability at the product level. The company has managed to remain operationally cash flow positive, even as GAAP losses continue to narrow.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BNTX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$95.26
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$79.52
+19.8% from the low
52-Week High
$124.00
-23.2% from the high
1 Month
+4.36%
3 Month
-10.65%
YTD
-1.5%
1 Year
+0.5%
3Y CAGR
-4.1%
5Y CAGR
-10.7%
10Y CAGR
+20.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BNTX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 12.3x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
-10.5%
vs -3.3% median
-220% below peer median
Net Margin
-39.6%
vs -14.7% median
-169% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BNT BNTX BioNTech SE | $23.9B | — | -10.5% | -39.6% | Buy | +44.0% |
MRN MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $19.3B | — | -17.9% | -143.6% | Hold | -26.2% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.8B | 9.0x | -3.3% | 11.8% | Hold | +2.9% |
NVA NVAX Novavax, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +19.3% | -14.7% | Buy | +92.3% |
ARC ARCT Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | $260M | — | -33.4% | -88.7% | Buy | +146.4% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $74.9B | 15.6x | +5.5% | 29.6% | Buy | +20.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BNTX Dividend and Capital Return
BNTX does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
251M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.11 | — | 2.6% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsBNTX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BioNTech SE (BNTX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $137, implying +44.0% from the current price of $95.
02What is the BNTX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BNTX is $137 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $155 (+62.7% from today), and the low-end target is $113 (+18.6%).
03Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for BNTX is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for BioNTech SE (BNTX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BNTX in 2026 are: (1) Clinical Trial Success — The ability to produce comparable clinical results in larger and more diverse trials is a significant risk for BioNTech SE. (2) Evolving Demand for COVID-19 Vaccines — The COVID-19 vaccine has been a major revenue driver for BioNTech, but demand is expected to decrease significantly. (3) Profitability and Revenue — BioNTech reported a net loss in 2025 and has provided guidance for lower revenues in 2026, alongside increasing R&D and SG&A expenses. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BioNTech SE's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BNTX will report consensus revenue of $2.6B (-10.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-3.96 (+14.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.5B in revenue.
06When does BioNTech SE (BNTX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BNTX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BioNTech SE generate?
BioNTech SE (BNTX) generated $277M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. BNTX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).