Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MRNA more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
7 bullish · 4 bearish · 27 covering MRNA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
16
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
-37.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.4B
MRNA price targets
Three scenarios for where MRNA stock could go
Current
~$64
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Moderna, Inc.
MRNA · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer, and other serious conditions. It generates revenue primarily from vaccine sales—notably its COVID-19 vaccine—with additional income from research collaborations and government grants. The company's key advantage is its proprietary mRNA technology platform, which enables rapid development of new vaccines and therapeutics compared to traditional methods.
Market Cap
$25.4B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
-$3.2B
Net Margin
-143.6%
MRNA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+39.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-2.13/$-2.99
Revenue
$142M/$893M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.51/$-1.87
Revenue
$1.0B/$921M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.11/$-2.54
Revenue
$678M/$635M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-3.40/$-4.45
Revenue
$389M/$236M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-2.13/$-2.99 | +28.8% | $142M/$893M | -84.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.51/$-1.87 | +72.7% | $1.0B/$921M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.11/$-2.54 | +16.9% | $678M/$635M | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $-3.40/$-4.45 | +23.6% | $389M/$236M | +64.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.2B
0.0% YoY
FY2
$2.4B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.38
+82.9% YoY
FY2
$-1.46
-5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.6B
FCF Margin: -71.1%
Next Earnings
July 31, 2026
Expected EPS
$-2.01
Expected Revenue
$102M
MRNA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MRNA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Sales
100.0%
-26.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.6%
-32.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 26.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.6%, down 32.8% YoY.
MRNA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MRNA
-8.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
136% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MRNA
-8.8x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
140% discount
vs MRNA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-8.8x
vs
5Y Average
9.0x
198% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Healthcare
18.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-8.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-136%
Healthcare
22.1x
-140%
5Y Avg
9.0x
-198%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
7.5x
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Healthcare
18.5x
—
5Y Avg
12.3x
—
Price/Sales
13.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+322%
Healthcare
2.6x
+395%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+146%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MRNA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MRNA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -8.8x | 24.4x-136% | 22.1x-140% | 9.0x-198% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.2x | 7.5x |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 18.5x | 12.3x |
| Price/Sales | 13.0x | 3.1x+322% | 2.6x+395% | 5.3x+146% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
MRNA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMRNA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for MRNA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-29.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-13.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-153.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-143.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-8.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-71.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-26.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-26.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$679M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-36.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-26.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
397M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMRNA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Pipeline Failures
A bear case suggests revenues may struggle to surpass $8 billion due to multiple pipeline failures, impacting growth projections.
High Risk
RSV Vaccine Risk
Revenue forecasts for 2026 are highly sensitive to RSV vaccine sales assumptions, with a 10% change potentially altering projections by $200-300 million.
Medium
Operational Uncertainty
Recent leadership changes and operational restructuring introduce execution risks as Moderna expands its focus beyond COVID-19.
Medium
Market Diversification
Transitioning to a multi-modality business model carries risks in execution and competition, potentially delaying revenue diversification.
Lower
mRNA Adoption
While mRNA technology has proven potential, broader therapeutic adoption faces regulatory and scientific hurdles that could slow growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MRNA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Expanding mRNA product pipeline
Moderna is expected to launch over ten products by 2035, with a focus on respiratory vaccines and immuno-oncology, driving a Revenue CAGR of over +15% from 2026-2035.
Leadership in mRNA technology
Moderna specializes in mRNA therapeutics, leveraging its proprietary technology platform to develop innovative medicines, including vaccines and oncology treatments.
Advancements in oncology pipeline
Moderna is making progress in its personalized cancer vaccine program, including late-stage data and collaborations with Merck, positioning it as a leader in immuno-oncology.
Infectious disease franchise growth
The company is expanding its infectious disease portfolio, with regulatory filings for its influenza vaccine and other late-stage candidates, supported by operational oversight from Dr. Stephen Hoge.
Strategic operational changes
Moderna is implementing significant changes to its operating model to support short- and long-term goals, aiming to become a diversified, multi-modality biotech company.
Billionaire investor interest
Following sharp declines, billionaire investors like Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management are viewing Moderna as an asymmetric risk/reward opportunity, as indicated by recent 13F filings.
Strong conference presence
Moderna's presentation at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference highlighted its progress in mRNA vaccines and oncology, reinforcing its growth trajectory and pipeline potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MRNA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.96
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.28
+187.1% from the low
52-Week High
$67.74
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+32.95%
3 Month
+22.06%
YTD
+107.3%
1 Year
+151.8%
3Y CAGR
-19.9%
5Y CAGR
-20.3%
10Y CAGR
+13.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MRNA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 14.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
0.0%
vs +10.3% median
-100% below peer median
Net Margin
-143.6%
vs 11.8% median
-1313% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRN MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $25.4B | — | 0.0% | -143.6% | Hold | -37.0% |
BNT BNTX BioNTech SE | $23.0B | — | +10.3% | -39.6% | Buy | +45.6% |
NVA NVAX Novavax, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +29.0% | -14.7% | Buy | +97.2% |
CVA CVAC CureVac N.V. | $1.0B | — | +35.0% | 37.9% | Hold | +350.6% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $143.5B | 8.5x | 0.0% | 11.8% | Hold | +6.1% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $550.4B | 19.7x | +7.0% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsMRNA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying -37.0% from the current price of $64.
02What is the MRNA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MRNA is $40 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $49 (-23.4% from today), and the low-end target is $33 (-48.4%).
03Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for MRNA is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MRNA in 2026 are: (1) Pipeline Failures — A bear case suggests revenues may struggle to surpass $8 billion due to multiple pipeline failures, impacting growth projections. (2) RSV Vaccine Risk — Revenue forecasts for 2026 are highly sensitive to RSV vaccine sales assumptions, with a 10% change potentially altering projections by $200-300 million. (3) Operational Uncertainty — Recent leadership changes and operational restructuring introduce execution risks as Moderna expands its focus beyond COVID-19. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Moderna, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MRNA will report consensus revenue of $2.2B (0.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.38 (+82.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.4B in revenue.
06When does Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) report its next earnings?
Moderna, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-31. Consensus expects EPS of $-2.01 and revenue of $102M. Over recent quarters, MRNA has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Moderna, Inc. generate?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had a free cash outflow of $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 71.1%. MRNA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).