Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MRNA more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
8 bullish · 4 bearish · 27 covering MRNA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
15
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$36
-26.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.3B
MRNA price targets
Three scenarios for where MRNA stock could go
Current
~$49
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Moderna, Inc.
MRNA · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer, and other serious conditions. It generates revenue primarily from vaccine sales—notably its COVID-19 vaccine—with additional income from research collaborations and government grants. The company's key advantage is its proprietary mRNA technology platform, which enables rapid development of new vaccines and therapeutics compared to traditional methods.
Market Cap
$19.3B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
-$3.2B
Net Margin
-143.6%
MRNA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-2.13/$-2.99
Revenue
$142M/$893M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.51/$-1.87
Revenue
$1.0B/$921M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.11/$-2.54
Revenue
$678M/$635M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-3.40/$-3.02
Revenue
$389M/$236M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-2.13/$-2.99 | +28.8% | $142M/$893M | -84.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.51/$-1.87 | +72.7% | $1.0B/$921M | +10.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.11/$-2.54 | +16.9% | $678M/$635M | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $-3.40/$-3.02 | -12.6% | $389M/$236M | +64.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.8B
-17.9% YoY
FY2
$1.6B
-9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-4.96
+38.6% YoY
FY2
$-2.71
+45.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.6B
FCF Margin: -71.1%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-2.03
Expected Revenue
$251M
MRNA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MRNA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Sales
100.0%
-26.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.6%
-32.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 26.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.6%, down 32.8% YoY.
MRNA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $61 — implies +34.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
34.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MRNA
-6.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
127% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MRNA
-6.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
130% discount
vs MRNA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-6.7x
vs
5Y Average
9.0x
175% discount
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-6.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-127%
Healthcare
22.1x
-130%
5Y Avg
9.0x
-175%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
7.5x
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.7x
—
5Y Avg
12.3x
—
Price/Sales
10.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+218%
Healthcare
2.8x
+249%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+87%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MRNA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MRNA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -6.7x | 25.2x-127% | 22.1x-130% | 9.0x-175% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | 7.5x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.7x | 12.3x |
| Price/Sales | 10.0x | 3.1x+218% | 2.8x+249% | 5.3x+87% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
MRNA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMRNA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for MRNA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-29.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-13.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-153.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-143.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-8.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-71.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-26.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-26.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$679M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-36.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-26.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
397M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMRNA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Technology and Innovation
The development of mRNA drugs involves significant clinical and regulatory risks. Negative perceptions of Moderna's platform or products could harm its business and ability to gain regulatory approvals.
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory
Regulatory bodies like the FDA may change approval requirements, even after reviewing clinical trial designs. Delays in clinical trials or preclinical testing could allow competitors to market products first, impacting Moderna's market position.
High Risk
Production and Manufacturing
Manufacturing mRNA medicines is complex and can involve lengthy processes. Challenges in identifying appropriate buffers and storage conditions for sufficient product shelf life could lead to delays if new batches are needed.
Medium
Clinical Trials and Enrollment
Difficulties in enrolling sufficient participants in clinical trials can increase costs, impact trial timing and outcomes, and prevent completion, thereby affecting the ability to gain regulatory approval.
Medium
Market Competition and Commoditization
The market for vaccines, particularly for influenza and COVID-19, is highly competitive and can become commoditized. Moderna faces challenges in displacing established competitors.
Medium
Pipeline Uncertainty
The success of Moderna's diverse and wide-ranging pipeline is uncertain, with the possibility of future program failures and recent discontinuations of certain programs contributing to potential revenue instability.
Medium
Financial Stability and Valuation
Concerns exist regarding financial stability and the use of credit facilities, especially when the market capitalization is significantly higher than projected cash reserves. The company's valuation assumes near-perfect execution across its pipeline and ambitious oncology goals.
Lower
Commercialization and Sales
Moderna has limited experience in sales, distribution, and marketing, which could pose challenges in effectively commercializing its products.
Lower
Economic Factors
Broader economic conditions such as inflation, interest rates, and the stage of the business cycle can influence Moderna's stock price and valuation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MRNA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Pipeline and Future Growth
Moderna aims for up to 10 product approvals by 2027, targeting significant market opportunities exceeding $30 billion. This includes late-stage trials for cancer vaccines and a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine, with promising developments in personalized cancer vaccines.
Reinvestment of COVID-19 Windfall
Moderna has reinvested its COVID-19 vaccine profits into a robust research and development pipeline, while maintaining a relatively clean balance sheet. This strategic reinvestment positions the company for future growth and innovation.
Cost Management and Financial Stability
The company has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, aiming to reduce operating costs by billions by 2027. With substantial cash reserves projected at approximately $8.1 billion by the end of 2025, Moderna is well-positioned to fund its pipeline.
International Expansion and New Products
Moderna is expanding its commercial network globally, securing long-term supply deals with governments in the UK, Canada, and Australia. New product launches, including its mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine, are contributing to revenue growth.
Strong Clinical Trial Success Rate
Moderna boasts a higher probability of success in Phase 3 trials at 83%, compared to the industry average of 69%. This strong track record enhances confidence in the development of its pipeline.
Potential for Undervaluation
Some analyses suggest that Moderna has been trading below its book value, indicating a potential opportunity for investors. The recent share price pullback may have been an overreaction, presenting a favorable entry point.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MRNA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.79
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.28
+119.0% from the low
52-Week High
$59.55
-18.1% from the high
1 Month
+0.04%
3 Month
+18.97%
YTD
+58.1%
1 Year
+99.7%
3Y CAGR
-28.2%
5Y CAGR
-21.2%
10Y CAGR
+10.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MRNA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 14.2x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
-17.9%
vs +6.4% median
-382% below peer median
Net Margin
-143.6%
vs 11.8% median
-1313% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRN MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $19.3B | — | -17.9% | -143.6% | Hold | -26.2% |
BNT BNTX BioNTech SE | $23.9B | — | -10.5% | -39.6% | Buy | +44.0% |
NVA NVAX Novavax, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +19.3% | -14.7% | Buy | +92.3% |
CVA CVAC CureVac N.V. | $1.0B | — | +30.0% | 37.9% | Hold | +350.6% |
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.8B | 9.0x | -3.3% | 11.8% | Hold | +2.9% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $541.3B | 19.4x | +6.4% | 27.3% | Buy | +11.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsMRNA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $36, implying -26.2% from the current price of $49.
02What is the MRNA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MRNA is $36 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+29.1% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (-65.2%).
03Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for MRNA is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MRNA in 2026 are: (1) Technology and Innovation — The development of mRNA drugs involves significant clinical and regulatory risks. (2) Legal and Regulatory — Regulatory bodies like the FDA may change approval requirements, even after reviewing clinical trial designs. (3) Production and Manufacturing — Manufacturing mRNA medicines is complex and can involve lengthy processes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Moderna, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MRNA will report consensus revenue of $1.8B (-17.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-4.96 (+38.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.6B in revenue.
06When does Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) report its next earnings?
Moderna, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-2.03 and revenue of $251M. Over recent quarters, MRNA has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Moderna, Inc. generate?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had a free cash outflow of $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 71.1%. MRNA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).