Upside case
Bull case
$64+143.2%
PFE would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
39
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 39 covering PFE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $64
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $150.4B
PFE price targets
Three scenarios for where PFE stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$12
Base
$37
Bull
$64
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$37+39.8%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$12-53.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push PFE down roughly 54% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pfizer Inc.
PFE · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Pfizer is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative medicines and vaccines across multiple therapeutic areas. It generates revenue primarily from pharmaceutical product sales — including blockbuster drugs like Eliquis, Prevnar, and Comirnaty — with vaccines contributing roughly 25% of total revenue. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive R&D scale, extensive global manufacturing capabilities, and deep expertise in developing complex biologics and vaccines.
Market Cap
$150.4B
Revenue TTM
$63.3B
Net Income TTM
$7.5B
Net Margin
11.8%
PFE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+42.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.78/$0.58
Revenue
$14.7B/$13.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.63
Revenue
$16.7B/$16.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.57
Revenue
$17.6B/$16.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.48/$0.71
Revenue
$14.5B/$13.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.78/$0.58 | +34.5% | $14.7B/$13.6B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.87/$0.63 | +37.4% | $16.7B/$16.5B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.66/$0.57 | +16.4% | $17.6B/$16.8B | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48/$0.71 | -32.4% | $14.5B/$13.8B | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$60.9B
-2.7% YoY
FY2
$58.5B
-3.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.14
+57.0% YoY
FY2
$1.90
-11.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.5B
FCF Margin: 15.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PFE beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PFE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $61.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Biopharma Segment
100.0%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.2%
-4.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Biopharma Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.2%, down 4.2% YoY.
PFE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $40 — implies +53.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
53.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PFE
19.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
23% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
PFE
19.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
12% discount
vs PFE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.4x
vs
5Y Average
27.9x
30% discount
Forward PE
8.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-53%
Healthcare
18.8x
-53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-23%
Healthcare
22.2x
-12%
5Y Avg
27.9x
-30%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-30%
Healthcare
14.0x
-24%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-13%
Price/FCF
16.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
-21%
Healthcare
18.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
17.6x
-6%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-23%
Healthcare
2.8x
-14%
5Y Avg
2.9x
-17%
Dividend Yield
6.50%
S&P 500
1.87%
+248%
Healthcare
1.42%
+357%
5Y Avg
4.89%
+33%
| Metric | PFE | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg PFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.9x | 19.1x-53% | 18.8x-53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.4x | 25.1x-23% | 22.2x-12% | 27.9x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7x | 15.2x-30% | 14.0x-24% | 12.3x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 16.6x | 21.1x-21% | 18.6x-11% | 17.6x |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-23% | 2.8x-14% | 2.9x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.50% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 4.89% |
PFE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPFE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PFE generates $9.5B in free cash flow at a 15.0% margin — returns 6.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$63.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.31
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$66.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.0× FCF
~7.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
6.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
125.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
5.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePFE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Patent cliff & revenue loss
Pfizer faces a significant patent cliff between 2026 and 2030, with blockbuster drugs such as Eliquis, Ibrance, Xtandi, and Prevnar 13 losing exclusivity. The company estimates a $17 billion to $18 billion annual revenue loss from these expirations, compounded by a 35% drop in Comirnaty sales and a 70% decline in Paxlovid sales in Q4 2025, and an additional $1.5 billion projected decline in 2026.
Medium
Obesity drug pipeline setback
Pfizer discontinued its oral obesity drug danuglipron after concerns over potential drug‑induced liver injury, leaving the company with fewer options in a highly competitive market where leaders like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate. This setback reduces Pfizer’s pipeline depth and could delay new revenue streams.
Medium
Acquisition integration risk
The integration of acquisitions such as Seagen and Metsera carries the risk that expected synergies, cost savings, and pipeline enhancements may not materialize within projected timelines, potentially impacting growth and profitability.
Medium
Dividend sustainability
Pfizer’s high dividend payout ratio, driven by earnings, raises concerns about long‑term sustainability. If revenue declines are not offset by new streams, a dividend cut could occur, affecting shareholder returns.
Medium
Debt leverage
The acquisition of Metsera has increased Pfizer’s leverage, raising debt levels that could constrain future financial flexibility and limit capital allocation options.
Medium
Organic revenue growth
Pfizer has struggled to grow organic revenue over the past two years, indicating potential issues with its core business, pricing strategy, or go‑to‑market execution.
Lower
Counterfeit product risk
Pfizer’s products are targets for counterfeiters, posing risks to patient health and safety, and potentially damaging the company’s reputation and regulatory standing.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PFE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Valuation & Financial Strength
Pfizer trades at a forward P/E under 12x, below the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation. The company generates over $18 billion in annual free cash flow, supporting dividends, buybacks, and R&D without external capital.
Robust Pipeline & Revenue Growth
Pfizer aims to reach $84 billion in annual revenue by 2030 through new drug launches and acquisitions. Multiple late-stage programs are awaiting regulatory review, with forecasts projecting a revenue rebound by 2025 driven by oncology and rare disease launches.
Dividend Yield & Shareholder Returns
The stock offers a near 6.7% dividend yield, historically elevated and supported by consistent cash generation. A return to the historical average of 4% could imply significant upside in share price.
Strong Profitability
Operating margins hover near 28% and net margins exceed 35%, reflecting efficient expense management. These robust margins underpin Pfizer’s ability to sustain high cash flow and dividends.
Medium-Term Technical Upside
Technical indicators signal a medium-term bullish trend with positive momentum and identified support levels, suggesting potential entry points for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PFE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.44
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$21.97
+20.3% from the low
52-Week High
$28.75
-8.0% from the high
1 Month
-4.99%
3 Month
-0.19%
YTD
+5.0%
1 Year
+10.8%
3Y CAGR
-11.8%
5Y CAGR
-7.9%
10Y CAGR
-1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PFE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.9x
vs 19.5x median
-54% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.7%
vs +6.4% median
-143% below peer median
Net Margin
11.8%
vs 27.3% median
-57% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFE PFE Pfizer Inc. | $150.4B | 8.9x | -2.7% | 11.8% | Hold | +3.1% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $543.6B | 19.5x | +6.4% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.5% |
MRK MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | $279.5B | 22.1x | +3.0% | 28.1% | Buy | +14.3% |
ABB ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $364.6B | 14.5x | +7.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +24.5% |
LLY LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $933.7B | 28.6x | +14.3% | 35.0% | Buy | +27.4% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $116.2B | 9.0x | -0.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +8.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PFE Dividend and Capital Return
PFE returns 6.5% total yield, led by a 6.50% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.50%
Payout Ratio
1.3%
How PFE Splits Its Return
Div 6.50%
Dividend 6.50%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.4%
5Y Div CAGR
2.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.7B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.72 | +2.4% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $1.68 | +2.4% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| 2023 | $1.64 | +2.5% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +2.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsPFE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +3.1% from the current price of $26. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $64.
02What is the PFE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PFE is $27 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $35 (+32.4% from today), and the low-end target is $24 (-9.2%). The base case model target is $37.
03Is Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock overvalued in 2026?
PFE trades at 8.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PFE in 2026 are: (1) Patent cliff & revenue loss — Pfizer faces a significant patent cliff between 2026 and 2030, with blockbuster drugs such as Eliquis, Ibrance, Xtandi, and Prevnar 13 losing exclusivity. (2) Obesity drug pipeline setback — Pfizer discontinued its oral obesity drug danuglipron after concerns over potential drug‑induced liver injury, leaving the company with fewer options in a highly competitive market where leaders like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate. (3) Acquisition integration risk — The integration of acquisitions such as Seagen and Metsera carries the risk that expected synergies, cost savings, and pipeline enhancements may not materialize within projected timelines, potentially impacting growth and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Pfizer Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PFE will report consensus revenue of $60.9B (-2.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.14 (+57.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.5B in revenue.
06When does Pfizer Inc. (PFE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PFE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Pfizer Inc. generate?
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) generated $9.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.0%. PFE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).