Upside case
Bull case
$138+2214.4%
BSBR would need investors to value it at roughly 155x earnings — about 148x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
5 bullish · 4 bearish · 11 covering BSBR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
2
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7
+20.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$21 – $138
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $44.8B
BSBR price targets
Three scenarios for where BSBR stock could go
Current
~$6
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $6
Bear
$21
Base
$51
Bull
$138
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$51+758.4%
At 57x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$21+250.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BSBR down roughly 250% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.
BSBR · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Banco Santander (Brasil) is a full-service commercial bank operating primarily in Brazil, offering retail, commercial, and wholesale banking services. It generates revenue through net interest income from loans and deposits (its largest segment), fee-based services including credit cards and payment platforms, and wholesale banking activities like capital markets and advisory services. The bank benefits from Santander's global brand recognition and extensive Brazilian branch network — one of the largest among foreign banks in the country — which provides scale advantages in both retail and corporate banking.
Market Cap
$44.8B
Net Income TTM
$12.7B
BSBR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.18
Revenue
$8.9B/$3.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.18
Revenue
$19.0B/$4.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.21/$0.20
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.21
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.26/$0.18 | +45.2% | $8.9B/$3.9B | +126.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.18 | +180.9% | $19.0B/$4.0B | +374.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21/$0.20 | +7.0% | $4.0B/$4.1B | -1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.21 | -6.1% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$153.9B
+1.6% YoY
FY2
$180.5B
+17.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.37
-29.0% YoY
FY2
$2.83
+19.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BSBR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BSBR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $19 — implies +236.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
236.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BSBR
18.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
28% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BSBR
18.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+36% premium
vs BSBR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.1x
vs
5Y Average
4.8x
+274% premium
Forward PE
6.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-65%
Financial Services
10.5x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-28%
Financial Services
13.4x
+36%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+274%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-49%
Financial Services
11.4x
-32%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+614%
Price/FCF
165.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+676%
Financial Services
10.6x
+1456%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+1640%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Financial Services
2.3x
-35%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+335%
Dividend Yield
5.78%
S&P 500
1.88%
+208%
Financial Services
2.68%
+116%
5Y Avg
16.23%
-64%
| Metric | BSBR | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BSBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.7x | 19.1x-65% | 10.5x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.1x | 25.2x-28% | 13.4x+36% | 4.8x+274% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7x | 15.3x-49% | 11.4x-32% | 1.1x+614% |
| Price/FCF | 165.5x | 21.3x+676% | 10.6x+1456% | 9.5x+1640% |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-53% | 2.3x-35% | 0.3x+335% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.78% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 16.23% |
BSBR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBSBR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BSBR generates 10.2% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.33
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$202.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$72.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
10.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.8%
Dividend
5.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
50.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
7.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBSBR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Cycle & Delinquencies
Brazil’s credit environment is worsening, with non‑performing loans (NPLs) rising, especially for delinquencies over 90 days. This trend pushes up the cost of credit and signals that aggressive loan growth may be unsustainable, potentially capping BSBR’s revenue expansion in the short‑ to medium term.
High Risk
Profitability & Cash Flow Volatility
Although BSBR has posted strong revenue growth, its profitability margins are eroding and cash flows have become highly volatile. This combination raises concerns about the bank’s ability to generate consistent earnings and fund future growth.
High Risk
Credit Growth Slowdown
Projections for total credit growth in Brazil have been revised downward, and the sector is also battling high interest rates. The slowdown limits the bank’s lending opportunities and could dampen overall profitability.
Medium
Low Free Float Risk
BSBR’s free float stands at only 10%, exposing minority shareholders to liquidity constraints and increasing the risk of a potential delisting. A low float can also amplify share price volatility.
Medium
Technical Weaknesses
Despite short‑term bullish signals, some analyses flag sell signals from the interaction of long‑term and short‑term moving averages, and a weak or negative trend indicated by a low ADX value. These technical indicators suggest potential downside pressure.
Lower
Market & Industry Performance
BSBR is trading near the middle of its 52‑week range and slightly lags the broader market (S&P 500). While it has outperformed some peers, its relative underperformance could limit upside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BSBR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Operational Turnaround & Efficiency Gains
Santander Brasil has completed an operational turnaround, tightening cost controls and normalizing profitability. The bank’s efficiency metrics improved, with revenue growth significantly outpacing expense growth over the past two years. This turnaround positions the bank for sustainable earnings expansion.
Revenue Growth Outpacing Expenses
Over the last two years, revenue growth has outpaced expense growth, reflecting improved operational efficiency. This trend has helped the bank maintain a healthy profit margin despite industry headwinds. The result is a stronger earnings trajectory heading into 2025.
Positive Technical Momentum & Breakout Potential
Recent price action shows a positive MACD histogram and an RSI of 56.16, indicating upward momentum. The stock trades above its 30‑day and 200‑day moving averages, suggesting a potential short‑term breakout. These technical signals support a bullish short‑term outlook.
Attractive Dividend Yield & Predictable Returns
BSBR offers a dividend yield of approximately 6% to 6.5%, providing a steady income stream. The bank’s outlook includes stable, gradual earnings growth, which supports predictable dividend payments. Investors can benefit from both income and potential capital appreciation.
Strong Current Ratio & Liquidity Position
The bank’s current ratio stands at 1.62, indicating sufficient short‑term assets to cover liabilities. This liquidity cushion enhances the bank’s ability to weather market volatility and pursue growth opportunities. A robust current ratio underpins the bank’s financial resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BSBR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$5.98
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.62
+29.4% from the low
52-Week High
$7.32
-18.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.99%
3 Month
-7.86%
YTD
-3.7%
1 Year
+19.4%
3Y CAGR
+1.7%
5Y CAGR
-3.3%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BSBR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.7x
vs 1.4x median
+365% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.6%
vs -15.3% median
+110% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BSB BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | $44.8B | 6.7x | +1.6% | — | Buy | +20.4% |
ITU ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. | $93.1B | 1.8x | +8.0% | — | Buy | -24.5% |
BBD BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | $40.8B | 1.4x | -15.3% | — | Hold | -17.1% |
SAN SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | $182.0B | 10.4x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -75.8% |
BBA BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. | $3.2B | 0.0x | -28.8% | — | Buy | +2.4% |
BMA BMA Banco Macro S.A. | $4.8B | 0.0x | -28.4% | — | Buy | +68.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BSBR Dividend and Capital Return
BSBR returns 5.9% total yield, led by a 5.91% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.91%
Payout Ratio
50.9%
How BSBR Splits Its Return
Div 5.91%
Dividend 5.91%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-11.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-13.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
7.5B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.30 | +1.2% | 0.0% | 28.0% |
| 2024 | $0.30 | -9.7% | 0.0% | 19.3% |
| 2023 | $0.33 | -23.4% | 0.0% | 11.2% |
| 2022 | $0.43 | -15.5% | 1.3% | 19.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBSBR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7, implying +20.4% from the current price of $6. The bear case scenario is $21 and the bull case is $138.
02What is the BSBR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BSBR is $7 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $7 (+20.4% from today), and the low-end target is $7 (+20.4%). The base case model target is $51.
03Is Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) stock overvalued in 2026?
BSBR trades at 6.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BSBR in 2026 are: (1) Credit Cycle & Delinquencies — Brazil’s credit environment is worsening, with non‑performing loans (NPLs) rising, especially for delinquencies over 90 days. (2) Profitability & Cash Flow Volatility — Although BSBR has posted strong revenue growth, its profitability margins are eroding and cash flows have become highly volatile. (3) Credit Growth Slowdown — Projections for total credit growth in Brazil have been revised downward, and the sector is also battling high interest rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BSBR will report consensus revenue of $153.9B (+1.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.37 (-29.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $180.5B in revenue.
06When does Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BSBR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. generate?
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) generated $5.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BSBR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).