Upside case
Bull case
$92+984.3%
ITUB would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
6 bullish · 1 bearish · 12 covering ITUB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$6
-24.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$9 – $92
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $93.1B
ITUB price targets
Three scenarios for where ITUB stock could go
Current
~$8
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $8
Bear
$9
Base
$58
Bull
$92
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$58+583.2%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$9+1.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ITUB down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
ITUB · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Itaú Unibanco is Brazil's largest private bank offering comprehensive financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, and insurance. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans and credit operations (~60% of total revenue) complemented by fee-based services, insurance premiums, and trading income. Its competitive advantage lies in its dominant market position in Brazil, extensive branch network, and deep customer relationships built over decades of operation.
Market Cap
$93.1B
Net Income TTM
$44.9B
ITUB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.18/$0.18
Revenue
$18.7B/$8.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.18/$0.18
Revenue
$6.9B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.17/$0.20
Revenue
$7.6B/$8.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.22
Revenue
$9.4B/$9.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.18/$0.18 | +0.0% | $18.7B/$8.2B | +127.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.18/$0.18 | +0.0% | $6.9B/$9.0B | -22.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.17/$0.20 | -15.0% | $7.6B/$8.9B | -15.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.22/$0.22 | +1.5% | $9.4B/$9.4B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$415.5B
+8.0% YoY
FY2
$487.4B
+17.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.78
+38.6% YoY
FY2
$5.44
+13.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$117.6B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ITUB beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ITUB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $21 — implies +144.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
144.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ITUB
10.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
58% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ITUB
10.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
21% discount
vs ITUB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.6x
vs
5Y Average
1.6x
+582% premium
Forward PE
1.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-91%
Financial Services
10.5x
-83%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-58%
Financial Services
13.4x
-21%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+582%
PEG Ratio
0.52x
S&P 500
1.75x
-70%
Financial Services
1.03x
-50%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+37%
Financial Services
11.4x
+83%
5Y Avg
12.6x
+65%
Price/FCF
3.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-83%
Financial Services
10.6x
-66%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+445%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-62%
Financial Services
2.3x
-47%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+547%
Dividend Yield
10.14%
S&P 500
1.88%
+440%
Financial Services
2.68%
+278%
5Y Avg
16.56%
-39%
| Metric | ITUB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ITUB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.8x | 19.1x-91% | 10.5x-83% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.6x | 25.2x-58% | 13.4x-21% | 1.6x+582% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.52x | 1.75x-70% | 1.03x-50% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.9x | 15.3x+37% | 11.4x+83% | 12.6x+65% |
| Price/FCF | 3.6x | 21.3x-83% | 10.6x-66% | 0.7x+445% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-62% | 2.3x-47% | 0.2x+547% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.14% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 16.56% |
ITUB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolITUB Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ITUB generates 20.6% ROE and 1.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.45
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
20.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$270.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$742.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
20.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.8%
Dividend
10.1%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.23
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
105.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
11.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageITUB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Risk & Loan Loss Provisions
Projected loan loss provisions for 2025 range from R$34.5 billion to R$38.5 billion. An unexpected spike in delinquency could materially reduce net income.
High Risk
Leverage & Cash Flow
Analysts note negative cash flows and high leverage, posing a risk to liquidity and capital adequacy despite strong regulatory capital.
High Risk
Brazilian Economic Volatility
Bank’s profitability is tightly linked to Brazil’s macro environment; fluctuations in political stability, inflation, and interest rates directly affect earnings.
High Risk
Inflation & Interest Rate Hikes
Recent central bank rate hikes to curb inflation increase macroeconomic risk, compressing margins and raising funding costs.
Medium
Regulatory & Capital Requirements
Ongoing alignment with Basel III and other regulatory changes can raise capital requirements or alter benchmark rates, potentially squeezing margins.
Medium
Legal Proceedings Liability
A civil case could impose a liability of up to R$13.8 billion. While the bank deems adverse outcomes remote, the potential financial impact remains significant.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ITUB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent High ROE
Itaú Unibanco consistently delivers a Return on Equity exceeding 20%, a key differentiator among emerging market banks. This profitability has remained resilient across economic cycles, underpinning the bank’s strong earnings base.
Robust Asset Base
The bank reported BRL 559.83 billion in assets for the fiscal quarter ending December 2025, reflecting a solid balance sheet foundation. This scale supports its lending capacity and risk absorption.
Attractive Dividend Yield
ITUB offers a dividend yield of 5.79%, showcasing a commitment to returning value to shareholders. The yield positions the stock as a compelling income play in Brazil’s banking sector.
Loan Portfolio Growth
The loan portfolio expanded 13.2% year‑over‑year in Q1 2025, indicating healthy credit demand and market share defense. This growth fuels the bank’s revenue and profitability trajectory.
Revenue Expansion 2025
Revenue rose 23.41% in 2025 versus 2024, driven by a diversified loan mix and fee income. The upward trend supports the bank’s earnings growth outlook.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ITUB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$8.45
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.05
+39.7% from the low
52-Week High
$9.60
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.24%
3 Month
-6.01%
YTD
+16.9%
1 Year
+38.3%
3Y CAGR
+21.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.1%
10Y CAGR
+8.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ITUB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.8x
vs 1.4x median
+25% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.0%
vs -15.3% median
+153% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 23.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ITU ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. | $93.1B | 1.8x | +8.0% | — | Buy | -24.5% |
BBD BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | $40.8B | 1.4x | -15.3% | — | Hold | -17.1% |
BSB BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | $44.8B | 6.7x | +1.6% | — | Buy | +20.4% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $41.4B | 7.9x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +17.8% |
BBA BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. | $3.2B | 0.0x | -28.8% | — | Buy | +2.4% |
BMA BMA Banco Macro S.A. | $4.8B | 0.0x | -28.4% | — | Buy | +68.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ITUB Dividend and Capital Return
ITUB returns 10.8% total yield, led by a 10.14% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
10.14%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How ITUB Splits Its Return
Div 10.14%
Dividend 10.14%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.23
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
81.1%
5Y Div CAGR
80.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Monthly
23 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
358M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
11.0B
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.11 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.81 | +125.6% | 3.8% | 62.9% |
| 2024 | $0.36 | +108.2% | 3.6% | 47.2% |
| 2023 | $0.17 | +26.4% | 1.0% | 16.1% |
| 2022 | $0.14 | +45.1% | 0.0% | 15.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsITUB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $6, implying -24.5% from the current price of $8. The bear case scenario is $9 and the bull case is $92.
02What is the ITUB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ITUB is $6 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8 (-8.1% from today), and the low-end target is $4 (-48.3%). The base case model target is $58.
03Is Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) stock overvalued in 2026?
ITUB trades at 1.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ITUB in 2026 are: (1) Credit Risk & Loan Loss Provisions — Projected loan loss provisions for 2025 range from R$34. (2) Leverage & Cash Flow — Analysts note negative cash flows and high leverage, posing a risk to liquidity and capital adequacy despite strong regulatory capital. (3) Brazilian Economic Volatility — Bank’s profitability is tightly linked to Brazil’s macro environment; fluctuations in political stability, inflation, and interest rates directly affect earnings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ITUB will report consensus revenue of $415.5B (+8.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.78 (+38.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $487.4B in revenue.
06When does Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ITUB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. generate?
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) generated $117.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ITUB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (10.1% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).