Upside case
Bull case
$18+43.5%
SAN would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
13 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 covering SAN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
7
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$3
-75.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $18
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $182.0B
SAN price targets
Three scenarios for where SAN stock could go
Current
~$12
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $12
Base
$10
Bull
$18
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$10-19.0%
At 8x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Banco Santander, S.A.
SAN · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Banco Santander is a global retail and commercial bank providing banking services to individuals, small businesses, and corporations across Europe and the Americas. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities—including mortgages, consumer loans, and corporate financing—supplemented by fees from transaction banking, wealth management, and insurance products. The bank's competitive advantage lies in its diversified geographic footprint across ten core markets—which provides natural hedging and cross-selling opportunities—and its scale as one of Europe's largest banks by market capitalization.
Market Cap
$182.0B
Net Income TTM
$14.1B
SAN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$0.23/$0.25
Revenue
$14.2B/$15.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.28/$0.24
Revenue
$15.0B/$14.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.25
Revenue
$19.0B/$18.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.27/$0.29
Revenue
$17.7B/$17.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.23/$0.25 | -8.0% | $14.2B/$15.9B | -10.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28/$0.24 | +16.7% | $15.0B/$14.6B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.25 | +0.0% | $19.0B/$18.4B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27/$0.29 | -6.9% | $17.7B/$17.7B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$105.1B
-12.4% YoY
FY2
$98.7B
-6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.86
-4.0% YoY
FY2
$0.83
-4.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$12.3B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SAN beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SAN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $10 — implies -17.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SAN
12.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SAN
12.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
9% discount
vs SAN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.1x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+57% premium
Forward PE
10.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-45%
Financial Services
10.5x
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Financial Services
13.4x
-9%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+57%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+42%
Financial Services
11.4x
+89%
5Y Avg
13.2x
+64%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
2.1x
—
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Financial Services
2.3x
-43%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+56%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
3.41%
—
| Metric | SAN | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SAN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.4x | 19.1x-45% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.1x | 25.2x-52% | 13.4x | 7.7x+57% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6x | 15.3x+42% | 11.4x+89% | 13.2x+64% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 2.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 2.3x-43% | 0.8x+56% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.41% |
SAN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSAN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SAN generates 12.8% ROE and 0.8% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.90
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$179.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$317.3B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
14.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSAN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Default Exposure
Santander faces the risk that customers or third parties may default on debt obligations or experience a deterioration in credit quality. Such defaults could lead to significant financial losses, especially given the bank's large loan portfolio. The impact is amplified if defaults cluster in specific regions or sectors.
High Risk
Liquidity Shortfall Risk
The bank may lack sufficient liquid assets to meet obligations when due, or may have to raise funds at high cost. This risk is heightened during market stress or when large withdrawals occur. A liquidity shortfall could force asset sales at depressed prices, eroding capital.
High Risk
Regulatory Investigation Risk
Santander has faced investigations over potential violations of federal securities laws, notably concerning a UK mortgage provider collapse. The scrutiny raises concerns about collateral shortfalls and the adequacy of risk assessments. Legal penalties or remedial actions could materially affect earnings and capital.
High Risk
Debt‑to‑Equity Exposure
The bank maintains a high debt‑to‑equity ratio, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. Elevated leverage magnifies the impact of interest rate hikes or credit deterioration on profitability and capital adequacy. It also limits flexibility for future investment or dividend policy.
Medium
Interest & FX Volatility
Fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates can affect the value of Santander's positions and net interest margin. Rising rates could compress earnings, while currency swings may impact foreign‑currency denominated assets and liabilities. Market volatility can also influence investor sentiment.
Medium
Process & System Failure
Operational risk encompasses losses from inadequate internal processes, personnel errors, system failures, or external events. It also includes legal risk components. Failures could lead to regulatory fines, reputational damage, and financial losses.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SAN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Rising NAND Pricing & Earnings Growth
NAND prices are accelerating faster than expected, which is driving climbing earnings estimates. Bernstein projects FY27 earnings per share of $144 in its base case and $224 in its bull‑case scenario.
AI-Driven Data Center Demand
The increasing demand for data storage from AI workloads is a primary catalyst for SanDisk. Robust AI data center demand is fueling a sustained upcycle in NAND usage.
Structural Undersupply in NAND
The NAND industry remains structurally undersupplied, which supports pricing power and helps sustain the current upcycle. This supply constraint creates a favorable environment for SanDisk’s pricing strategy.
Undervalued Earnings Power
Analysts believe the market is significantly undervaluing SanDisk’s earnings potential and the sustainability of the current cycle. This undervaluation presents a compelling upside opportunity.
Company-Specific NAND Focus
SanDisk operates as a focused NAND specialist, differentiating it from diversified competitors. This specialization enhances its competitive advantage in the high‑margin NAND market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SAN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$12.40
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$7.14
+73.7% from the low
52-Week High
$13.24
-6.3% from the high
1 Month
+7.64%
3 Month
-2.44%
YTD
+2.7%
1 Year
+73.2%
3Y CAGR
+52.7%
5Y CAGR
+26.2%
10Y CAGR
+10.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SAN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.4x
vs 11.2x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-12.4%
vs -19.3% median
+36% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAN SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | $182.0B | 10.4x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -75.8% |
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $124.5B | 10.9x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $86.2B | 12.5x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -24.9% |
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $82.4B | 11.2x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +83.2% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $140.3B | 13.8x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -47.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SAN Dividend and Capital Return
SAN does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
31.9%
5Y Div CAGR
17.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
14.7B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.11 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.26 | +22.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $0.21 | +39.1% | 6.7% | 11.0% |
| 2023 | $0.15 | +35.2% | 4.6% | 8.0% |
| 2022 | $0.11 | +31.1% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsSAN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $3, implying -75.8% from the current price of $12.
02What is the SAN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SAN is $3 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $3 (-75.8% from today), and the low-end target is $3 (-75.8%). The base case model target is $10.
03Is Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) stock overvalued in 2026?
SAN trades at 10.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SAN in 2026 are: (1) Credit Default Exposure — Santander faces the risk that customers or third parties may default on debt obligations or experience a deterioration in credit quality. (2) Liquidity Shortfall Risk — The bank may lack sufficient liquid assets to meet obligations when due, or may have to raise funds at high cost. (3) Regulatory Investigation Risk — Santander has faced investigations over potential violations of federal securities laws, notably concerning a UK mortgage provider collapse. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Banco Santander, S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SAN will report consensus revenue of $105.1B (-12.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.86 (-4.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $98.7B in revenue.
06When does Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SAN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Banco Santander, S.A. generate?
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) had a free cash outflow of $12.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. SAN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).