Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing BTSG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
9
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering BTSG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$49
-7.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
33.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.2B
BTSG price targets
Three scenarios for where BTSG stock could go
Current
~$53
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $53
Base
$103
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$103+95.1%
At 66x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
BTSG · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesDecember year-end
BrightSpring Health Services operates a home and community-based healthcare services platform that delivers pharmacy and clinical care to Medicare, Medicaid, and insured patients. It generates revenue primarily through pharmacy services—including specialty pharmacy and infusion—and provider services like home health and hospice care, with pharmacy contributing roughly 60% of revenue. The company's moat lies in its integrated platform that combines pharmacy and clinical services—a rare combination that creates operational efficiencies and stickier patient relationships.
Market Cap
$10.2B
Revenue TTM
$13.6B
Net Income TTM
$310M
Net Margin
2.3%
BTSG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
70%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.19
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.30/$0.26
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.34
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.29
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$0.19 | +15.8% | $3.1B/$3.2B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.30/$0.26 | +13.9% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.33/$0.34 | -2.9% | $3.6B/$3.4B | +5.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.39/$0.29 | +34.5% | $3.6B/$3.4B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.6B
+14.0% YoY
FY2
$18.1B
+16.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.58
+13.1% YoY
FY2
$1.70
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$508M
FCF Margin: 3.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BTSG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BTSG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Insurance
68.8%
+29.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commercial Insurance is the largest disclosed segment at 68.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 29.1% YoY.
BTSG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $31 — implies -41.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BTSG
60.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+140% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BTSG
60.6x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+174% premium
vs BTSG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
60.6x
vs
5Y Average
43.0x
+41% premium
Forward PE
33.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+78%
Healthcare
19.0x
+78%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
60.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+140%
Healthcare
22.1x
+174%
5Y Avg
43.0x
+41%
PEG Ratio
1.25x
S&P 500
1.75x
-29%
Healthcare
1.52x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+48%
Healthcare
14.1x
+60%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+33%
Price/FCF
25.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+21%
Healthcare
18.7x
+38%
5Y Avg
20.9x
+24%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Healthcare
2.8x
-72%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+70%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BTSG | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BTSG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 33.9x | 19.1x+78% | 19.0x+78% | — |
| Trailing PE | 60.6x | 25.2x+140% | 22.1x+174% | 43.0x+41% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25x | 1.75x-29% | 1.52x-18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.6x | 15.3x+48% | 14.1x+60% | 17.1x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 25.8x | 21.3x+21% | 18.7x+38% | 20.9x+24% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 2.8x-72% | 0.5x+70% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
BTSG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBTSG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for BTSG are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.40
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$508M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$88M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.4× FCF
~5.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$43M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
193M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBTSG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Commercial Insurance dependence
Commercial Insurance contributes 68.8% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 29.1%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
BTSG trades at 60.6x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 22.1x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $15.6B in revenue (14.0% growth) and $1.58 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $508M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.4% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BTSG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock already operates from a position of scale, with 12.2% gross margin, 3.3% operating margin, and $508M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Commercial Insurance still matters
Commercial Insurance accounts for 68.8% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 29.1%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $49, or -7.6% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $15.6B in forward revenue and $1.58 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.4% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BTSG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.74
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.01
+177.4% from the low
52-Week High
$54.68
-3.5% from the high
1 Month
+21.21%
3 Month
+32.91%
YTD
+37.3%
1 Year
+141.6%
3Y CAGR
+68.6%
5Y CAGR
+36.8%
10Y CAGR
+17.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BTSG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
33.9x
vs 23.4x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.0%
vs +14.5% median
-4% below peer median
Net Margin
2.3%
vs 0.7% median
+235% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTS BTSG BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock | $10.2B | 33.9x | +14.0% | 2.3% | Buy | -7.6% |
LFS LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. | $2.9B | 100.7x | +18.0% | 0.7% | Buy | +26.4% |
ACH ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $2.3B | 17.0x | +5.6% | -32.8% | Buy | -7.1% |
ENS ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $10.3B | 23.4x | +17.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +26.4% |
ADU ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | $1.8B | 14.0x | +14.5% | 6.9% | Buy | +33.1% |
CCR CCRN Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. | $326M | 103.4x | -16.0% | -9.0% | Hold | +4.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BTSG Dividend and Capital Return
BTSG returns 0.4% annually — null% through dividends and 0.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$43M
Estimated Shares Retired
818.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
193M
FAQ
7 questionsBTSG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $49, implying -7.6% from the current price of $53.
02What is the BTSG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BTSG is $49 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+13.8% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-18.5%). The base case model target is $103.
03Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) stock overvalued in 2026?
BTSG trades at 33.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BTSG in 2026 are: (1) Commercial Insurance dependence — Commercial Insurance contributes 68. (2) Valuation de-rating — BTSG trades at 60. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $15. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BTSG will report consensus revenue of $15.6B (+14.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.58 (+13.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.1B in revenue.
06When does BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BTSG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock generate?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (BTSG) generated $508M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.7%. BTSG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($43M TTM).