Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing CAI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering CAI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$29
+50.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
158.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $32.0B
CAI price targets
Three scenarios for where CAI stock could go
Current
~$19
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Caris Life Sciences, Inc.
CAI · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Caris Life Sciences is an AI-powered molecular diagnostics company that provides comprehensive cancer profiling services to guide treatment decisions. It generates revenue primarily from molecular testing services for oncology patients — including tissue-based and blood-based profiling — along with pharmaceutical research services for drug development partners. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive molecular database and proprietary AI algorithms that analyze complex biomarker data to deliver personalized cancer treatment insights.
Market Cap
$32.0B
Revenue TTM
$812M
Net Income TTM
-$538M
Net Margin
-66.2%
CAI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
3 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+514.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 3 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 3Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.54/$-0.21
Revenue
$181M/$138M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.08/$-0.08
Revenue
$217M/$281M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.28/$-0.02
Revenue
$293M/$240M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.54/$-0.21 | -157.1% | $181M/$138M | +31.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.08/$-0.08 | +200.0% | $217M/$281M | -22.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28/$-0.02 | +1500.0% | $293M/$240M | +21.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+32.1% YoY
FY2
$1.4B
+33.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.19
+42.1% YoY
FY2
$-0.20
-9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$33M
FCF Margin: 4.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CAI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 3 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CAI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $2 — implies -89.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
89.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CAI
-5.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
124% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
CAI
-5.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
127% discount
vs CAI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.9x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
158.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+733%
Healthcare
19.0x
+734%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-124%
Healthcare
22.1x
-127%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
691.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+4433%
Healthcare
14.1x
+4789%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
478.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+2142%
Healthcare
18.7x
+2463%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
39.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1157%
Healthcare
2.8x
+1283%
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CAI | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg CAI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 158.8x | 19.1x+733% | 19.0x+734% | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.9x | 25.2x-124% | 22.1x-127% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 691.3x | 15.3x+4433% | 14.1x+4789% | — |
| Price/FCF | 478.2x | 21.3x+2142% | 18.7x+2463% | — |
| Price/Sales | 39.4x | 3.1x+1157% | 2.8x+1283% | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
CAI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCAI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for CAI are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$812M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+144.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-66.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.32
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$33M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-47.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$798M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$798M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-93.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$113000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCAI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Concentration Risk
Caris Life Sciences’ 2025 revenue grew 96.97% to $812.03 million, largely driven by Molecular Information (MI) revenue, which accounted for almost all growth in Q3. This concentration means that any decline in MI sales could sharply reduce revenue and hurt margins, exposing the company to significant risk if MI revenue fails to sustain growth.
High Risk
Negative Earnings & Overvaluation
The company reports a negative P/E ratio of –9.42 (or –99.59), indicating losses of $537.96 million in 2025, a 42.2% increase from the prior year. Valuation metrics assign a Value Score of D and the stock trades at a sector premium, leaving little margin for error. Investors face the risk that continued losses and overvaluation could erode shareholder value.
Medium
Uncertain Program Economics
The economics of Caris Life Sciences’ blood‑based programs remain uncertain, posing a strategic risk. Without clear profitability metrics, these programs could fail to generate expected returns, impacting future cash flows and the company’s financial stability.
Medium
Execution Risk from Premium Valuation
The company’s premium valuation increases execution risk, as management must deliver strong results to justify the high price. Any failure to meet growth expectations could lead to a sharp decline in share price, amplifying downside risk for investors.
Medium
Low Institutional Ownership
Institutional ownership stands at 43.15%, placing Caris Life Sciences in the bottom 40% of peers. Lower institutional ownership can reduce liquidity and support for the stock, potentially increasing volatility and limiting upside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CAI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Government Contracts Growth
CACI International has seen a significant increase in government contracts, with a 15% year-over-year growth in its backlog. This growth is driven by increased defense spending and the need for advanced IT solutions.
Expansion into Cybersecurity Sector
The company is expanding its footprint in the cybersecurity sector, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next five years. CACI's recent acquisition of a cybersecurity firm is expected to enhance its service offerings and drive revenue.
Robust Financial Performance
CACI reported a 20% increase in revenue for the last fiscal year, reaching $5 billion. This strong financial performance is attributed to successful project execution and a diversified client base.
Strategic Partnerships and Alliances
The company has formed strategic partnerships with key technology providers, enhancing its capabilities in emerging technologies. These alliances are expected to contribute to a projected 12% revenue growth in the upcoming year.
Focus on Innovation and R&D
CACI invests approximately 8% of its revenue into research and development, fostering innovation in its service offerings. This commitment to R&D is expected to yield new solutions that meet evolving client needs.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CAI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$19.13
52W Range Position
11%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.28
+17.5% from the low
52-Week High
$42.50
-55.0% from the high
1 Month
+0.63%
3 Month
-13.05%
YTD
-29.1%
1 Year
-31.7%
3Y CAGR
-11.9%
5Y CAGR
-7.3%
10Y CAGR
-3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CAI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
158.8x
vs 305.2x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.1%
vs +17.4% median
+84% above peer median
Net Margin
-66.2%
vs -14.6% median
-354% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAI CAI Caris Life Sciences, Inc. | $32.0B | 158.8x | +32.1% | -66.2% | Buy | +50.3% |
EXA EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation | $20.0B | 582.8x | +16.5% | -6.4% | Buy | -1.6% |
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $21.7B | 27.5x | +1.4% | 19.4% | Buy | +3.4% |
NTR NTRA Natera, Inc. | $29.6B | — | +31.7% | -14.6% | Buy | +22.0% |
GH GH Guardant Health, Inc. | $11.5B | — | +34.6% | -44.2% | Buy | +44.3% |
FDM FDMT 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. | $600M | — | +17.4% | -164.4% | Buy | +216.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CAI Dividend and Capital Return
CAI does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$113000
Estimated Shares Retired
5.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.7B
FAQ
7 questionsCAI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $29, implying +50.3% from the current price of $19.
02What is the CAI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CAI is $29 based on 6 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+98.6% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (+9.8%).
03Is Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) stock overvalued in 2026?
CAI trades at 158.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CAI in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Concentration Risk — Caris Life Sciences’ 2025 revenue grew 96. (2) Negative Earnings & Overvaluation — The company reports a negative P/E ratio of –9. (3) Uncertain Program Economics — The economics of Caris Life Sciences’ blood‑based programs remain uncertain, posing a strategic risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Caris Life Sciences, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CAI will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+32.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.19 (+42.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.4B in revenue.
06When does Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CAI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Caris Life Sciences, Inc. generate?
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) generated $33M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.0%. CAI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($113000 TTM).