Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing EXAS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
22 bullish · 2 bearish · 41 covering EXAS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$103
-1.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
582.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.0B
EXAS price targets
Three scenarios for where EXAS stock could go
Current
~$105
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Exact Sciences Corporation
EXAS · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Exact Sciences is a cancer diagnostics company that develops and commercializes non-invasive screening tests for early cancer detection. It generates revenue primarily from its Cologuard colorectal cancer screening test — which accounts for the majority of sales — and its Oncotype DX genomic tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers. The company's moat lies in its proprietary DNA biomarker technology and its exclusive licensing agreements with major research institutions like the Mayo Clinic.
Market Cap
$20.0B
Revenue TTM
$3.2B
Net Income TTM
-$208M
Net Margin
-6.4%
EXAS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+147.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.21/$-0.37
Revenue
$707M/$689M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$-0.02
Revenue
$811M/$810M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$-0.06
Revenue
$851M/$811M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.45/$-0.11
Revenue
$878M/$861M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.21/$-0.37 | +43.2% | $707M/$689M | +2.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$-0.02 | +1200.0% | $811M/$810M | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$-0.06 | +492.0% | $851M/$811M | +5.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.45/$-0.11 | -316.9% | $878M/$861M | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.8B
+16.5% YoY
FY2
$4.4B
+16.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.04
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$-1.06
-1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$357M
FCF Margin: 11.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EXAS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EXAS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Screening
77.9%
+20.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.1%
+17.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Screening is the largest disclosed segment at 77.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 20.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.1%, up 17.6% YoY.
EXAS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $90 — implies -13.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXAS
-95.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
478% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
EXAS
-95.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
531% discount
vs EXAS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-95.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
582.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+2957%
Healthcare
19.0x
+2961%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-95.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-478%
Healthcare
22.1x
-531%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
56.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+163%
Healthcare
18.7x
+201%
5Y Avg
96.3x
-42%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+97%
Healthcare
2.8x
+116%
5Y Avg
5.3x
+15%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | EXAS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg EXAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 582.8x | 19.1x+2957% | 19.0x+2961% | — |
| Trailing PE | -95.4x | 25.2x-478% | 22.1x-531% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | 56.1x | 21.3x+163% | 18.7x+201% | 96.3x-42% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+97% | 2.8x+116% | 5.3x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
EXAS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXAS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
EXAS generates $357M in free cash flow at a 11.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-6.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-6.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$357M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-3.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$956M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.4× FCF
~4.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-8.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-3.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$27M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
189M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageEXAS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Mix and Sensitivity
EXAS's revenue is heavily reliant on its Cologuard test for colorectal cancer screening, making it vulnerable to changes in payer reimbursement policies and U.S. screening guidelines. Any adverse changes could significantly impact test volume and pricing, leading to potential revenue declines.
High Risk
Merger Uncertainty
Exact Sciences is currently in the process of being acquired by Abbott Laboratories, but there is a risk that the merger may not close. If the deal falls through, it could lead to a substantial drop in EXAS's stock price.
High Risk
Financial Performance and Profitability
EXAS has a history of net losses, raising concerns about its ability to achieve sustained GAAP profitability. Past earnings misses and downward guidance have resulted in significant stock price drops, indicating a high financial risk.
Medium
Competition and Technological Advancements
The diagnostics market is highly competitive, especially in blood-based multi-cancer early detection and minimal residual disease assays. New technological advancements and emerging competitors could adversely affect EXAS's market share and growth prospects.
Medium
Reimbursement and Regulatory Scrutiny
Ongoing reimbursement pressures and regulatory oversight pose risks for EXAS. Changes in healthcare policies and reimbursement rates can significantly impact the company's financial performance.
Medium
Dependence on Key Products
EXAS's reliance on Cologuard as a primary revenue driver poses risks if market dynamics shift or competition intensifies. Over-dependence on a single product can lead to vulnerabilities in revenue generation.
Lower
Litigation and Legal Liabilities
EXAS is involved in various legal proceedings, with uncertain outcomes that could negatively impact its financial position and reputation. Adverse legal outcomes may lead to financial liabilities.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
EXAS faces potential cybersecurity threats that could result in the misappropriation of assets, data corruption, or operational disruptions. Such incidents could have financial implications and affect investor confidence.
Lower
Operational and Personnel Risks
The company may encounter risks related to labor shortages and increased labor costs due to a competitive market. Additionally, difficulties in integrating new employees could hinder operational efficiency.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXAS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Cologuard Market Penetration
Exact Sciences anticipates a significant increase in Cologuard's market share, potentially growing from around 15% to over 40% in the long term. The company has also revised its 2025 guidance upward, supported by strong revenue growth, including a 22% year-over-year increase in its core screening business.
New Product Development
The successful launch of the Cancerguard blood test and advancements in other areas like multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are expected to contribute to future growth. The company is also diversifying beyond its core stool-based test with new technologies like Oncodetect and Cancerguard.
Strategic Partnerships and Distribution
Initiatives like the nationwide Cologuard pharmacy rollout through Walgreens aim to widen access to the test. This partnership is expected to enhance distribution and increase patient access to Cologuard.
Financial Outlook
Despite historical net losses, there are positive indicators such as strong revenue growth and positive Adjusted EBITDA generation. Some analyses suggest the stock is undervalued, with one discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis indicating it could be undervalued by 32.0%.
Analyst Sentiment
A consensus rating of 'Buy' from 16 analysts, with a significant portion recommending a 'Strong Buy,' supports a positive outlook. This strong analyst sentiment reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXAS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$104.91
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.81
+170.3% from the low
52-Week High
$104.98
-0.1% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
+1.68%
YTD
+3.1%
1 Year
+94.3%
3Y CAGR
+15.2%
5Y CAGR
-0.6%
10Y CAGR
+33.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXAS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
582.8x
vs 17.6x median
+3209% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.5%
vs +6.6% median
+150% above peer median
Net Margin
-6.4%
vs 6.7% median
-196% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXA EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation | $20.0B | 582.8x | +16.5% | -6.4% | Buy | -1.6% |
GH GH Guardant Health, Inc. | $11.5B | — | +34.6% | -44.2% | Buy | +44.3% |
NTR NTRA Natera, Inc. | $29.6B | — | +31.7% | -14.6% | Buy | +22.0% |
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $21.7B | 27.5x | +1.4% | 19.4% | Buy | +3.4% |
LH LH Labcorp Holdings Inc. | $21.1B | 14.4x | +4.7% | 6.7% | Buy | +21.2% |
DGX DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | $20.9B | 17.6x | +6.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXAS Dividend and Capital Return
EXAS returns 0.1% annually — null% through dividends and 0.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$27M
Estimated Shares Retired
253.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
189M
FAQ
7 questionsEXAS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $103, implying -1.6% from the current price of $105.
02What is the EXAS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXAS is $103 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $105 (+0.1% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-19.0%).
03Is Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXAS trades at 582.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXAS in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Mix and Sensitivity — EXAS's revenue is heavily reliant on its Cologuard test for colorectal cancer screening, making it vulnerable to changes in payer reimbursement policies and U. (2) Merger Uncertainty — Exact Sciences is currently in the process of being acquired by Abbott Laboratories, but there is a risk that the merger may not close. (3) Financial Performance and Profitability — EXAS has a history of net losses, raising concerns about its ability to achieve sustained GAAP profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Exact Sciences Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXAS will report consensus revenue of $3.8B (+16.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.04 (+4.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.4B in revenue.
06When does Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EXAS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Exact Sciences Corporation generate?
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS) generated $357M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.0%. EXAS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($27M TTM).