Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NTRA more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 27 covering NTRA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$260
+12.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.1B
NTRA price targets
Three scenarios for where NTRA stock could go
Current
~$231
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Natera, Inc.
NTRA · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Natera is a molecular diagnostics company that provides genetic testing services for reproductive health, oncology, and organ health. It generates revenue primarily from laboratory testing services — including prenatal screening, cancer monitoring, and transplant rejection testing — with oncology becoming its largest segment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary cell-free DNA technology platform and extensive clinical validation data, which creates switching costs for healthcare providers.
Market Cap
$33.1B
Revenue TTM
$2.5B
Net Income TTM
-$226M
Net Margin
-9.0%
NTRA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.74/$-0.62
Revenue
$547M/$476M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.64/$-0.39
Revenue
$592M/$513M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.35/$-0.51
Revenue
$666M/$604M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.56/$-0.54
Revenue
$697M/$617M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.74/$-0.62 | -20.2% | $547M/$476M | +14.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.64/$-0.39 | -65.9% | $592M/$513M | +15.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35/$-0.51 | +168.3% | $666M/$604M | +10.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.56/$-0.54 | -3.3% | $697M/$617M | +12.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.8B
+11.9% YoY
FY2
$3.2B
+13.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.90
-18.9% YoY
FY2
$-1.77
+6.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$92M
FCF Margin: 3.7%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.49
Expected Revenue
$661M
NTRA beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NTRA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
99.6%
+36.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
98.2%
+36.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 99.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 36.2% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 98.2%, up 36.6% YoY.
NTRA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $20 — implies -91.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
91.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTRA
-152.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
723% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NTRA
-152.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
788% discount
vs NTRA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-152.2x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Healthcare
18.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-152.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-723%
Healthcare
22.1x
-788%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
303.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1368%
Healthcare
18.5x
+1538%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
14.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+365%
Healthcare
2.6x
+445%
5Y Avg
10.0x
+43%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NTRA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NTRA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -152.2x | 24.4x-723% | 22.1x-788% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | 303.7x | 20.7x+1368% | 18.5x+1538% | — |
| Price/Sales | 14.4x | 3.1x+365% | 2.6x+445% | 10.0x+43% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
NTRA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTRA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for NTRA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+36.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
65.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-13.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.60
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$92M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-36.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-10.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$862M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-15.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-36.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
143M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNTRA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory and legal risks
Natera disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant regulatory and legal challenges that could impact operations.
Medium
Revenue and earnings uncertainty
Stock forecasts and analyst price target predictions highlight potential volatility in revenue and earnings estimates, reflecting market uncertainty.
Lower
Competitive pressures
As a global leader in cell-free DNA testing, Natera faces intense competition in non-invasive prenatal testing, oncology, and organ health monitoring.
Medium
Investment speculation
The company's securities are considered speculative or risky, as noted in the full risk factors contained in its Annual Report on Form 10-K.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTRA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue guidance
Natera issued 2026 revenue guidance of US$2.62 billion to US$2.70 billion, indicating strong growth expectations.
Signatera clinical data
New clinical data on Signatera test presented at ASCO Genitourinary Cancers Symposium highlights its potential in muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
Oncology franchise growth
NTRA's oncology franchise, particularly Signatera MRD testing, is a key growth driver supported by increasing testing volumes.
Peer-reviewed validation
Natera's tests are backed by over 400 peer-reviewed publications, demonstrating high accuracy and reliability.
Revenue growth
First-quarter 2026 revenue grew to US$696.64 million from US$501.83 million year-over-year, showing strong financial performance.
Mission-driven innovation
Natera aims to integrate personalized genetic testing into standard care, promoting earlier interventions for healthier lives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTRA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$231.41
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$131.81
+75.6% from the low
52-Week High
$256.36
-9.7% from the high
1 Month
+20.19%
3 Month
+17.00%
YTD
+1.1%
1 Year
+35.3%
3Y CAGR
+64.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.6%
10Y CAGR
+34.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTRA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 40.3x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+11.9%
vs +11.2% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
-9.0%
vs 3.7% median
-344% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTR NTRA Natera, Inc. | $33.1B | — | +11.9% | -9.0% | Buy | +12.3% |
EXA EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation | $20.0B | 582.8x | +12.5% | -6.4% | Buy | +0.1% |
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $24.6B | 31.0x | +9.3% | 19.4% | Buy | -6.5% |
CGE CGEN Compugen Ltd. | $190M | — | +35.0% | 48.6% | Buy | +123.9% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.2B | 40.3x | +8.8% | 3.7% | Hold | -10.5% |
PAC PACB Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. | $435M | — | +11.2% | -80.3% | Buy | -28.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNTRA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $260, implying +12.3% from the current price of $231.
02What is the NTRA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTRA is $260 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $285 (+23.2% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (-4.9%).
03Is Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NTRA is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTRA in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and legal risks — Natera disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant regulatory and legal challenges that could impact operations. (2) Revenue and earnings uncertainty — Stock forecasts and analyst price target predictions highlight potential volatility in revenue and earnings estimates, reflecting market uncertainty. (3) Investment speculation — The company's securities are considered speculative or risky, as noted in the full risk factors contained in its Annual Report on Form 10-K. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Natera, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTRA will report consensus revenue of $2.8B (+11.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.90 (-18.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.2B in revenue.
06When does Natera, Inc. (NTRA) report its next earnings?
Natera, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.49 and revenue of $661M. Over recent quarters, NTRA has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Natera, Inc. generate?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) generated $92M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.7%. NTRA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).