Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NTRA more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 27 covering NTRA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$263
+22.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.6B
NTRA price targets
Three scenarios for where NTRA stock could go
Current
~$215
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Natera, Inc.
NTRA · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Natera is a molecular diagnostics company that provides genetic testing services for reproductive health, oncology, and organ health. It generates revenue primarily from laboratory testing services — including prenatal screening, cancer monitoring, and transplant rejection testing — with oncology becoming its largest segment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary cell-free DNA technology platform and extensive clinical validation data, which creates switching costs for healthcare providers.
Market Cap
$29.6B
Revenue TTM
$2.1B
Net Income TTM
-$309M
Net Margin
-14.6%
NTRA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.50/$-0.64
Revenue
$502M/$446M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.74/$-0.62
Revenue
$547M/$476M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.64/$-0.39
Revenue
$592M/$513M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.35/$-0.51
Revenue
$666M/$604M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.50/$-0.64 | +21.9% | $502M/$446M | +12.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.74/$-0.62 | -20.2% | $547M/$476M | +14.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.64/$-0.39 | -65.9% | $592M/$513M | +15.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35/$-0.51 | +168.3% | $666M/$604M | +10.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.8B
+31.7% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+31.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.42
-7.2% YoY
FY2
$-2.39
+1.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$94M
FCF Margin: 4.4%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.53
Expected Revenue
$617M
NTRA beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NTRA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
99.6%
+36.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
98.2%
+36.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 99.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 36.2% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 98.2%, up 36.6% YoY.
NTRA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies -77.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
77.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTRA
-140.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
657% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NTRA
-140.6x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
735% discount
vs NTRA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-140.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-140.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-657%
Healthcare
22.1x
-735%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
427.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1903%
Healthcare
18.7x
+2190%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
17.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+457%
Healthcare
2.8x
+512%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+52%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NTRA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NTRA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -140.6x | 25.2x-657% | 22.1x-735% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | 427.2x | 21.3x+1903% | 18.7x+2190% | — |
| Price/Sales | 17.4x | 3.1x+457% | 2.8x+512% | 11.4x+52% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
NTRA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTRA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for NTRA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+38.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-16.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-14.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$94M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-33.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-17.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$946M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$758M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-24.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-33.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
125M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNTRA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Profitability & Operating Leverage
Natera’s net margin was -9.02% as of April 2026, and the company has posted negative earnings for the last five years despite positive operating cash flow in the most recent year. The gap between revenue growth and operating expenses raises doubts that the current valuation can be supported by future cash generation.
Medium
High Valuation & Cash Generation Gap
The stock trades at a premium that some analysts deem overvalued, with models indicating little room for error. The valuation presumes substantial cash generation that has not yet materialized, increasing downside risk if growth targets are missed.
Medium
Competitive Threats from Large Players
Natera competes with well‑resourced incumbents such as Roche, Abbott, and Danaher, which could erode its pricing power and market share in the genetic testing and diagnostics space.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Overhangs
Ongoing litigation and regulatory proceedings around intellectual property, coupled with the recent court decision affirming key MRD patents and granting royalties, expose the company to significant costs and potential commercialization limits.
Medium
Market & Economic Sensitivity
The stock has historically underperformed the broader market during economic downturns and can experience outsized volatility when investors rotate to defensive assets, especially amid geopolitical tension or risk‑off sentiment.
Medium
Reimbursement Challenges for Oncology Tests
Securing broader insurance coverage for oncology assays is critical; reimbursement complexities or declines in rates could materially constrain Natera’s growth and pricing power.
Lower
Insider Selling Pattern
Executives and co‑founders have liquidated significant holdings despite positive results, potentially signaling a lack of conviction in long‑term upside or a belief the stock is adequately valued.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTRA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership in cfDNA Diagnostics
Natera’s proprietary cell‑free DNA (cfDNA) platform positions it as a category‑defining leader in large, underserved markets. Its flagship products—Signatera™ for cancer recurrence monitoring, Prospera™ for transplant rejection assessment, and Panorama™ for prenatal screening—drive demand across oncology, transplant, and obstetrics sectors.
Revenue Growth Momentum
The company reported a 35.90% revenue increase to $2.31 billion in 2025, driven by record Signatera MRD volumes. A Q4 earnings beat and optimistic 2026 revenue guidance further underscore the upward trajectory.
Institutional Backing
Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller has made Natera his largest position, signaling strong conviction. Additional institutional investors have increased their stakes, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s long‑term prospects.
Clinical Validation and Adoption
Recent studies demonstrate Signatera’s efficacy in guiding treatment decisions for breast cancer patients, bolstering clinical credibility. This validation supports broader market adoption and potential revenue expansion.
Product Pipeline and Innovation
Natera’s pipeline targets significant unmet medical needs, with Prospera™ addressing transplant rejection and Panorama™ offering comprehensive prenatal screening. These innovations expand the company’s reach into high‑growth therapeutic areas.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTRA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$215.09
52W Range Position
67%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$131.81
+63.2% from the low
52-Week High
$256.36
-16.1% from the high
1 Month
+4.99%
3 Month
+5.93%
YTD
-6.0%
1 Year
+38.3%
3Y CAGR
+59.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.4%
10Y CAGR
+36.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTRA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 46.8x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+31.7%
vs +8.0% median
+297% above peer median
Net Margin
-14.6%
vs -6.4% median
-128% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTR NTRA Natera, Inc. | $29.6B | — | +31.7% | -14.6% | Buy | +22.0% |
EXA EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation | $20.0B | 582.8x | +16.5% | -6.4% | Buy | -1.6% |
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $21.7B | 27.5x | +1.4% | 19.4% | Buy | +3.4% |
CGE CGEN Compugen Ltd. | $247M | — | +38.2% | -577.2% | Buy | +44.9% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.1B | 46.8x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -20.4% |
PAC PACB Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. | $516M | — | -4.6% | -325.8% | Buy | -41.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNTRA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $263, implying +22.0% from the current price of $215.
02What is the NTRA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTRA is $263 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $285 (+32.5% from today), and the low-end target is $205 (-4.7%).
03Is Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NTRA is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Natera, Inc. (NTRA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTRA in 2026 are: (1) Profitability & Operating Leverage — Natera’s net margin was -9. (2) High Valuation & Cash Generation Gap — The stock trades at a premium that some analysts deem overvalued, with models indicating little room for error. (3) Competitive Threats from Large Players — Natera competes with well‑resourced incumbents such as Roche, Abbott, and Danaher, which could erode its pricing power and market share in the genetic testing and diagnostics space. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Natera, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTRA will report consensus revenue of $2.8B (+31.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.42 (-7.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Natera, Inc. (NTRA) report its next earnings?
Natera, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.53 and revenue of $617M. Over recent quarters, NTRA has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Natera, Inc. generate?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) generated $94M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.4%. NTRA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).