Upside case
Bull case
$93-42.8%
The bull case prices ILMN at 18x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
26 bullish · 6 bearish · 50 covering ILMN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
25
Hold
18
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$151
-6.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$44 – $93
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.6B
ILMN price targets
Three scenarios for where ILMN stock could go
Current
~$162
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $162
Bear
$44
Base
$70
Bull
$93
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$70-56.6%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44-72.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 23x multiple contraction could push ILMN down roughly 73% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Illumina, Inc.
ILMN · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Illumina is a global leader in DNA sequencing and genomic analysis technology that enables researchers and clinicians to read and interpret genetic information. It generates revenue primarily through sales of sequencing instruments (~40% of revenue) and consumables like flow cells and reagents (~50%), with the remainder from services and software. The company's dominant market position is protected by its massive installed base of sequencers, proprietary chemistry and optics technology, and extensive patent portfolio that creates high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$24.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$853M
Net Margin
19.4%
ILMN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+240.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.02
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.17
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.24
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.05
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.19/$1.02 | +16.7% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.34/$1.17 | +14.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35/$1.24 | +8.9% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.05 | +9.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.49
-36.9% YoY
FY2
$2.38
-31.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$989M
FCF Margin: 22.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.24
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
ILMN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ILMN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Sequencing
91.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
55.4%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Sequencing is the largest disclosed segment at 91.8% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Americas is the largest reported region at 55.4%, down 1.4% YoY.
ILMN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $150 — implies -7.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
7.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ILMN
29.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+22% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ILMN
29.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+34% premium
vs ILMN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.7x
vs
5Y Average
49.0x
39% discount
Forward PE
31.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+65%
Healthcare
18.3x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+22%
Healthcare
22.1x
+34%
5Y Avg
49.0x
-39%
PEG Ratio
7.02x
S&P 500
1.66x
+323%
Healthcare
1.59x
+342%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+49%
Healthcare
14.2x
+60%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+16%
Price/FCF
26.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+28%
Healthcare
18.5x
+42%
5Y Avg
73.6x
-64%
Price/Sales
5.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+83%
Healthcare
2.6x
+115%
5Y Avg
6.7x
-16%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ILMN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ILMN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.0x | 18.8x+65% | 18.3x+69% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.7x | 24.4x+22% | 22.1x+34% | 49.0x-39% |
| PEG Ratio | 7.02x | 1.66x+323% | 1.59x+342% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.7x | 15.2x+49% | 14.2x+60% | 19.6x+16% |
| Price/FCF | 26.4x | 20.7x+28% | 18.5x+42% | 73.6x-64% |
| Price/Sales | 5.7x | 3.1x+83% | 2.6x+115% | 6.7x-16% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ILMN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolILMN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ILMN generates $989M in free cash flow at a 22.5% margin — 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$989M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
~1.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$742M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
152M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageILMN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Volatility risk
High beta of 1.49 means the stock is 49% more volatile than the market, leading to larger drawdowns during corrections.
High Risk
Short interest pressure
Elevated short interest with a 4.2-day cover ratio indicates significant bearish bets against the stock.
Medium
Valuation uncertainty
Scenario-based price targets show a wide range ($101 bear case to $174 bull case), reflecting uncertainty in forward EPS estimates.
Medium
Market sentiment risk
Bearish sentiment is evident in analyst forecasts and peer comparisons, potentially impacting near-term performance.
Lower
Technology adoption risk
Despite being a leader in sequencing, rapid technological advancements could disrupt Illumina's market position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ILMN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Illumina reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1,091 million and net income of $134 million, with higher EPS YoY and raised full-year revenue guidance to $4.52-$4.62 billion.
Share repurchase program
The company repurchased about 7.15% of its stock, demonstrating management's confidence in the business outlook.
Diverse product portfolio
Illumina offers a broad range of sequencing and microarray products for various genomic analysis applications, driving advances in research and diagnostics.
Billion Cell Atlas alliance
The partnership with AstraZeneca, Merck, and Eli Lilly, alongside new AI-enabled genomics platforms, positions Illumina at the forefront of large-scale genomics and drug discovery.
AI and multiomics integration
Illumina's new platforms integrate CRISPR, single-cell sequencing, and cloud analytics, marking a shift toward data-driven precision medicine and multiomic software.
Leading NGS technology
Illumina sequencing is one of the most widely used next-generation sequencing technologies, utilizing sequencing by synthesis for accurate DNA base detection.
Strategic market positioning
Operating in the Healthcare Diagnostics & Research sector, Illumina is a key player in life science tools and genetic analysis systems.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ILMN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$161.93
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$88.00
+84.0% from the low
52-Week High
$177.22
-8.6% from the high
1 Month
+14.43%
3 Month
+31.70%
YTD
+20.5%
1 Year
+79.4%
3Y CAGR
-6.2%
5Y CAGR
-18.2%
10Y CAGR
+1.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ILMN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.0x
vs 21.0x median
+48% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +6.1% median
+54% above peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 14.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $24.6B | 31.0x | +9.3% | 19.4% | Buy | -6.5% |
PAC PACB Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. | $435M | — | +11.2% | -80.3% | Buy | -28.6% |
BRK BRKR Bruker Corporation | $8.7B | 27.0x | +8.8% | -0.3% | Buy | -16.7% |
TMO TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $172.7B | 18.7x | +6.1% | 15.2% | Buy | +29.1% |
DHR DHR Danaher Corporation | $125.4B | 21.0x | +3.5% | 14.9% | Buy | +30.3% |
A A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | $35.9B | 21.0x | +2.7% | 19.6% | Buy | +21.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ILMN Dividend and Capital Return
ILMN returns 3.0% annually — null% through dividends and 3.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$742M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
152M
At 3.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsILMN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $151, implying -6.5% from the current price of $162. The bear case scenario is $44 and the bull case is $93.
02What is the ILMN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ILMN is $151 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $180 (+11.2% from today), and the low-end target is $122 (-24.7%). The base case model target is $70.
03Is Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock overvalued in 2026?
ILMN trades at 31.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ILMN in 2026 are: (1) Volatility risk — High beta of 1. (2) Short interest pressure — Elevated short interest with a 4. (3) Valuation uncertainty — Scenario-based price targets show a wide range ($101 bear case to $174 bull case), reflecting uncertainty in forward EPS estimates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Illumina, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ILMN will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.49 (-36.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) report its next earnings?
Illumina, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.24 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, ILMN has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Illumina, Inc. generate?
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) generated $989M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.5%. ILMN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($742M TTM).