Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ILMN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
25 bullish · 6 bearish · 50 covering ILMN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
19
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$147
+3.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$165 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.7B
ILMN price targets
Three scenarios for where ILMN stock could go
Current
~$143
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $143
Bear
$165
Base
$142
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$142-0.1%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ILMN — at roughly 27x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$165+15.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ILMN down roughly 16% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Illumina, Inc.
ILMN · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Illumina is a global leader in DNA sequencing and genomic analysis technology that enables researchers and clinicians to read and interpret genetic information. It generates revenue primarily through sales of sequencing instruments (~40% of revenue) and consumables like flow cells and reagents (~50%), with the remainder from services and software. The company's dominant market position is protected by its massive installed base of sequencers, proprietary chemistry and optics technology, and extensive patent portfolio that creates high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$21.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$853M
Net Margin
19.4%
ILMN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+240.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.02
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.17
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.24
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.05
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.19/$1.02 | +16.7% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.34/$1.17 | +14.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35/$1.24 | +8.9% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.05 | +9.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$4.5B
+1.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.35
-3.3% YoY
FY2
$5.45
+1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$989M
FCF Margin: 22.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ILMN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ILMN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Sequencing
91.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
55.4%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Sequencing is the largest disclosed segment at 91.8% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Americas is the largest reported region at 55.4%, down 1.4% YoY.
ILMN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $263 — implies +93.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
93.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ILMN
26.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ILMN
26.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+18% premium
vs ILMN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.2x
vs
5Y Average
49.0x
47% discount
Forward PE
27.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+44%
Healthcare
19.0x
+44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+4%
Healthcare
22.1x
+18%
5Y Avg
49.0x
-47%
PEG Ratio
6.18x
S&P 500
1.75x
+254%
Healthcare
1.52x
+306%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+32%
Healthcare
14.1x
+42%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+3%
Price/FCF
23.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+9%
Healthcare
18.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
73.6x
-68%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+59%
Healthcare
2.8x
+75%
5Y Avg
6.7x
-26%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ILMN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ILMN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.5x | 19.1x+44% | 19.0x+44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.2x | 25.2x | 22.1x+18% | 49.0x-47% |
| PEG Ratio | 6.18x | 1.75x+254% | 1.52x+306% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1x | 15.3x+32% | 14.1x+42% | 19.6x |
| Price/FCF | 23.3x | 21.3x | 18.7x+25% | 73.6x-68% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+59% | 2.8x+75% | 6.7x-26% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ILMN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolILMN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ILMN generates $989M in free cash flow at a 22.5% margin — 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$989M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
~1.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$742M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
152M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageILMN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
Illumina faces intensifying competition from established players like Roche, particularly with the development of Roche's AXELIOS 1 platform. This platform's pricing and capabilities are closely monitored by investors, posing a significant threat to Illumina's market share.
High Risk
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks
Illumina has been placed on China's 'unreliable entities list,' restricting its ability to export sequencing instruments to China, a key growth region. This geopolitical tension complicates market access and sales, necessitating careful navigation of international trade complexities.
High Risk
Financial and Valuation Concerns
Illumina's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 93.8, indicating significant financial leverage. Analysts have raised concerns about the stock being a potential 'value trap,' with low Piotroski F-scores and Altman Z-scores suggesting financial weakness despite attractive valuations.
Medium
Macroeconomic Challenges
Macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and potential economic downturns, can adversely affect Illumina's operations and customer purchasing behavior. Additionally, supply chain disruptions and higher input costs may squeeze profit margins.
Medium
Operational Concerns
Illumina has experienced revenue fluctuations, with declines in constant currency revenue over the past two years, indicating potential issues with demand or market saturation. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities in its sequencing instruments could allow unauthorized access to genomic data.
Lower
Regulatory Challenges
Illumina faces antitrust challenges and regulatory pushback related to its Grail acquisition, resulting in legal costs and strategic uncertainty. Increased regulation in genomics, particularly concerning privacy and ethical considerations, also poses potential risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ILMN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Moat
Illumina is considered the 'Intel of Genomics,' holding a dominant market share in the machines essential for genetic research. This strong market position creates a significant competitive moat.
Turnaround Play and Technology Adoption
The company's investment case is viewed as a 'Turnaround Play' driven by the adoption of its new technology cycle, such as the NovaSeq X series. The introduction of products like the MiSeq i100 Plus has attracted new customers to the sequencing market.
Margin Recovery and Profitability
Analysts project a recovery in net income margins as the costs associated with the NovaSeq launch dissipate. The company has demonstrated strong earnings leverage, with significant profitability improvements even with flat revenue, indicating efficient cost management and operational leverage.
Clinical Momentum and Growth Drivers
There's positive financial performance in clinical consumables revenue, showing growing demand. Partnerships and initiatives, like the collaboration with Labcorp for precision oncology, aim to broaden access to next-generation sequencing and build evidence for payer coverage.
Improved Guidance and Financial Performance
Illumina has raised its non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance, reflecting improved expectations for profitability driven by increased clinical momentum and favorable funding outlooks. Recent earnings reports have shown the company exceeding analyst expectations.
Strategic Shift to Recurring Revenue
The focus on consumables revenue, driven by new platforms like NovaSeq X, limits the long-term impact of cyclical instrument weakness and makes the business more resilient.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ILMN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$142.58
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$73.86
+93.0% from the low
52-Week High
$155.53
-8.3% from the high
1 Month
+11.62%
3 Month
+19.09%
YTD
+6.1%
1 Year
+91.3%
3Y CAGR
-9.2%
5Y CAGR
-17.2%
10Y CAGR
+0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ILMN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.5x
vs 19.9x median
+39% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +4.1% median
-65% below peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 14.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ILM ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $21.7B | 27.5x | +1.4% | 19.4% | Buy | +3.4% |
PAC PACB Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. | $516M | — | -4.6% | -325.8% | Buy | -41.5% |
BRK BRKR Bruker Corporation | $6.4B | 20.0x | +10.4% | -0.8% | Buy | +23.2% |
TMO TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $175.8B | 19.0x | +4.1% | 15.2% | Buy | +38.4% |
DHR DHR Danaher Corporation | $123.8B | 20.7x | +1.8% | 14.9% | Buy | +41.2% |
A A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | $33.3B | 19.7x | +4.6% | 18.3% | Buy | +41.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ILMN Dividend and Capital Return
ILMN returns 3.4% annually — null% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$742M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
152M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsILMN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $147, implying +3.4% from the current price of $143.
02What is the ILMN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ILMN is $147 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+19.2% from today), and the low-end target is $122 (-14.4%). The base case model target is $142.
03Is Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock overvalued in 2026?
ILMN trades at 27.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ILMN in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Landscape — Illumina faces intensifying competition from established players like Roche, particularly with the development of Roche's AXELIOS 1 platform. (2) Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks — Illumina has been placed on China's 'unreliable entities list,' restricting its ability to export sequencing instruments to China, a key growth region. (3) Financial and Valuation Concerns — Illumina's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 93. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Illumina, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ILMN will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.35 (-3.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.5B in revenue.
06When does Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ILMN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Illumina, Inc. generate?
Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) generated $989M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.5%. ILMN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($742M TTM).