Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing CFLT more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
38
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering CFLT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$31
+0.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
CFLT price targets
Three scenarios for where CFLT stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Confluent, Inc.
CFLT · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Confluent is a data streaming platform company that helps organizations process and analyze real-time data streams. It generates revenue primarily through its Confluent Cloud managed service — a cloud-native platform — and Confluent Platform enterprise software, with additional income from training and professional services. The company's key advantage is its deep expertise with Apache Kafka — the open-source streaming standard — which it commercializes with enterprise-grade features, management tools, and cloud scalability.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.2B
Net Income TTM
-$295M
Net Margin
-25.3%
CFLT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+61.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.07
Revenue
$271M/$264M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.08
Revenue
$282M/$293M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.10
Revenue
$299M/$308M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.12/$0.10
Revenue
$315M/$308M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.08/$0.07 | +14.3% | $271M/$264M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.08 | +12.5% | $282M/$293M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.13/$0.10 | +30.0% | $299M/$308M | -3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.12/$0.10 | +21.0% | $315M/$308M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+17.8% YoY
FY2
$1.6B
+16.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.56
+33.4% YoY
FY2
$-0.50
+11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$50M
FCF Margin: 4.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CFLT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CFLT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Confluent Cloud
53.5%
+26.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.0%
+15.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Confluent Cloud is the largest disclosed segment at 53.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 26.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.0%, up 15.4% YoY.
CFLT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $11 — implies -64.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
64.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CFLT
-36.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
247% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CFLT
-36.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
224% discount
vs CFLT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-36.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
60.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+222%
Technology
22.3x
+172%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-36.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-247%
Technology
29.0x
-224%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
175.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+748%
Technology
19.2x
+814%
5Y Avg
171.3x
+2%
Price/Sales
9.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+195%
Technology
2.4x
+274%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-4%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CFLT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CFLT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.6x | 18.8x+222% | 22.3x+172% | — |
| Trailing PE | -36.0x | 24.4x-247% | 29.0x-224% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | 175.6x | 20.7x+748% | 19.2x+814% | 171.3x |
| Price/Sales | 9.1x | 3.1x+195% | 2.4x+274% | 9.5x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
CFLT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCFLT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for CFLT are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-25.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.84
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$50M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-9.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$347M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$758M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
15.0× FCF
~15.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-25.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-15.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
344M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCFLT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation stagnation
The stock is currently trading near its consensus price target, indicating limited upside potential.
High Risk
Forward-looking risks
Management acknowledges unpredictability of emerging risks and their potential impact on business results.
Medium
AI model downside
AI models forecast a potential 5.9% decline in stock price by 2026.
High Risk
Uncertainty in projections
Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous known and unknown risks that could materially differ from projections.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CFLT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on Confluent, Inc. have been published by investment research platforms like Outperforming the Market and Compounding Your Wealth.
High growth valuation
Confluent trades at a forward P/E of 62.50, reflecting investor expectations for significant future growth.
Price target upside
Analyst forecasts for 2026 indicate potential upside across bull-case scenarios, with dynamic price patterns expected.
Institutional research attention
The stock is receiving detailed analysis from investment research platforms, including valuation metrics and financial statistics.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CFLT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.99
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.64
+98.1% from the low
52-Week High
$31.00
-0.0% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
+2.9%
1 Year
+29.5%
3Y CAGR
-2.8%
5Y CAGR
-7.2%
10Y CAGR
-3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CFLT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.6x
vs 32.7x median
+85% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.8%
vs +14.9% median
+20% above peer median
Net Margin
-25.3%
vs 3.7% median
-785% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFL CFLT Confluent, Inc. | $10.7B | 60.6x | +17.8% | -25.3% | Hold | +0.0% |
MQ MQ Marqeta, Inc. | $1.6B | 100.0x | +14.9% | 0.3% | Hold | +22.4% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $79.4B | 91.9x | +18.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.7% |
DT DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $12.1B | 21.3x | +16.5% | 8.1% | Buy | +12.0% |
EST ESTC Elastic N.V. | $6.1B | 23.3x | +9.2% | 21.1% | Buy | +6.6% |
GTL GTLB GitLab Inc. | $4.5B | 32.7x | +14.1% | -2.5% | Hold | +31.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCFLT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $31, implying +0.0% from the current price of $31.
02What is the CFLT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CFLT is $31 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $31 (+0.0% from today), and the low-end target is $31 (+0.0%).
03Is Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock overvalued in 2026?
CFLT trades at 60.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CFLT in 2026 are: (1) Forward-looking risks — Management acknowledges unpredictability of emerging risks and their potential impact on business results. (2) Uncertainty in projections — Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous known and unknown risks that could materially differ from projections. (3) Valuation stagnation — The stock is currently trading near its consensus price target, indicating limited upside potential. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Confluent, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CFLT will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+17.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.56 (+33.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.6B in revenue.
06When does Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CFLT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Confluent, Inc. generate?
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) generated $50M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.3%. CFLT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).