Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing CFLT more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
38
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering CFLT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$31
-0.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
CFLT price targets
Three scenarios for where CFLT stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Confluent, Inc.
CFLT · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Confluent is a data streaming platform company that helps organizations process and analyze real-time data streams. It generates revenue primarily through its Confluent Cloud managed service — a cloud-native platform — and Confluent Platform enterprise software, with additional income from training and professional services. The company's key advantage is its deep expertise with Apache Kafka — the open-source streaming standard — which it commercializes with enterprise-grade features, management tools, and cloud scalability.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.2B
Net Income TTM
-$295M
Net Margin
-25.3%
CFLT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+61.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.07
Revenue
$271M/$264M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.08
Revenue
$282M/$293M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.10
Revenue
$299M/$308M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.12/$0.10
Revenue
$315M/$308M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.08/$0.07 | +14.3% | $271M/$264M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.08 | +12.5% | $282M/$293M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.13/$0.10 | +30.0% | $299M/$308M | -3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.12/$0.10 | +21.0% | $315M/$308M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+23.7% YoY
FY2
$1.8B
+24.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.57
+32.5% YoY
FY2
$-0.63
-11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$50M
FCF Margin: 4.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CFLT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CFLT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Confluent Cloud
53.5%
+26.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.0%
+15.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Confluent Cloud is the largest disclosed segment at 53.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 26.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.0%, up 15.4% YoY.
CFLT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $13 — implies -56.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
56.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CFLT
-36.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
243% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CFLT
-36.0x
vs
Technology
27.2x
232% discount
vs CFLT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-36.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
60.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+218%
Technology
21.7x
+179%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-36.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-243%
Technology
27.2x
-232%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
17.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
175.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+725%
Technology
19.8x
+787%
5Y Avg
171.3x
+2%
Price/Sales
9.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+191%
Technology
2.4x
+277%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-4%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CFLT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CFLT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.6x | 19.1x+218% | 21.7x+179% | — |
| Trailing PE | -36.0x | 25.2x-243% | 27.2x-232% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 17.3x | — |
| Price/FCF | 175.6x | 21.3x+725% | 19.8x+787% | 171.3x |
| Price/Sales | 9.1x | 3.1x+191% | 2.4x+277% | 9.5x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.18% | — |
CFLT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCFLT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for CFLT are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-25.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.84
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$50M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-9.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$347M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$758M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
15.0× FCF
~15.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-25.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-15.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
344M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCFLT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability and Expenses
Confluent has consistently reported net losses, with operating expenses significantly exceeding revenue. Despite healthy gross margins, high spending on research and development, and sales and marketing drives operating margins deeply negative, leaving the path to sustainable profitability unclear.
High Risk
Competition
Confluent faces intense competition from established players like Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Microsoft Azure. This competitive landscape poses a significant risk to Confluent's market share and pricing power.
Medium
Revenue Growth Deceleration
Concerns about potential deceleration in revenue growth have emerged, with signs of deterioration in key metrics such as calculated Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) growth and Dollar-Based Net Retention Rates. A slowdown in customer usage and revenue compression could adversely impact valuation multiples.
Medium
Debt and Leverage
Confluent's debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 0.99, indicating a notable amount of leverage. While the company has a substantial cash reserve, the high Debt to Free Cash Flow ratio suggests that it may take a significant amount of free cash flow to service its debts.
Medium
Reliance on Existing Customers
Confluent's growth is heavily reliant on continued usage increases from existing customers. Any slowdown in this area could adversely affect growth rates and overall financial performance.
Lower
Market Sentiment and Volatility
The stock has experienced volatility due to mixed market signals and speculation, including potential acquisition rumors. Technical sentiment signals have indicated a 'Sell,' which may affect investor confidence.
Lower
Stock-Based Compensation and Insider Selling
Stock-based compensation and insider selling are factors that could impact shareholder value. These activities may lead to dilution of existing shares and affect market perception.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CFLT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Growth Opportunities
Confluent has developed an industry-leading data streaming platform that is becoming crucial for AI applications, opening up new opportunities. The company's penetration of the open-source Kafka market is still low, indicating substantial room for growth.
Expanding Addressable Market
Confluent estimates its total addressable market (TAM) for data streaming and governance to be over $100 billion. The company's Flink technology, used for real-time computations and analytics on data streams, has an even larger estimated TAM and could significantly boost Confluent Cloud spend.
Financial Improvements
Confluent has shown improvements in profitability, with guidance indicating a substantial increase in EBIT margin over the past two years. The company also boasts strong free cash flow growth and improving operating margins.
Strong Customer Base and Revenue Growth
Confluent serves blue-chip customers and has a high-margin recurring revenue model. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with existing customers increasing their spending and new customers being acquired.
Attractive Valuation
Despite a significant drop from its all-time highs, Confluent's stock is trading at a discount compared to its peers. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the company went public, making it appear undervalued.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CFLT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.99
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.64
+98.1% from the low
52-Week High
$31.00
-0.0% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
+1.37%
YTD
+2.9%
1 Year
+57.1%
3Y CAGR
+11.0%
5Y CAGR
-7.2%
10Y CAGR
-3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CFLT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.6x
vs 30.2x median
+101% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.7%
vs +12.4% median
+91% above peer median
Net Margin
-25.3%
vs 0.3% median
-7702% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFL CFLT Confluent, Inc. | $10.7B | 60.6x | +23.7% | -25.3% | Hold | -0.5% |
MQ MQ Marqeta, Inc. | $1.8B | 247.6x | +12.4% | 0.3% | Hold | +14.9% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $46.8B | 67.0x | +23.6% | 3.1% | Buy | +21.5% |
DT DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $11.4B | 22.7x | +9.9% | 9.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
EST ESTC Elastic N.V. | $5.2B | 19.4x | +11.8% | -5.0% | Buy | +71.8% |
GTL GTLB GitLab Inc. | $4.0B | 30.2x | +24.1% | -5.8% | Buy | +48.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCFLT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $31, implying -0.5% from the current price of $31.
02What is the CFLT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CFLT is $31 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $31 (+0.0% from today), and the low-end target is $29 (-6.4%).
03Is Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock overvalued in 2026?
CFLT trades at 60.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CFLT in 2026 are: (1) Profitability and Expenses — Confluent has consistently reported net losses, with operating expenses significantly exceeding revenue. (2) Competition — Confluent faces intense competition from established players like Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Microsoft Azure. (3) Revenue Growth Deceleration — Concerns about potential deceleration in revenue growth have emerged, with signs of deterioration in key metrics such as calculated Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) growth and Dollar-Based Net Retention Rates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Confluent, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CFLT will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+23.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.57 (+32.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.8B in revenue.
06When does Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CFLT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Confluent, Inc. generate?
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) generated $50M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.3%. CFLT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).