Revenue volatility remains significant, with the firm reporting a net loss of $132.2 million in 2026Q1 alongside highly inconsistent gross margins that previously swung from -78.9% to over 100%.
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 |
|---|
| Sales/Revenue | 4.06B | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue Growth % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COGS % of Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gross Profit | 0 | 0 | 2.72B | -436.5M | -501.4M | 3.84B | 2.93B | 3.38B | 316.5M | 1.51B | 731.9M | 1.34B | 1.7B | 2.18B | 1.82B |
| Gross Margin % | 0% | - | 50.15% | -14.73% | -11.3% | 43.73% | 100% | 100% | 13.04% | 41.14% | 32.18% | 44.59% | 43.79% | 49.08% | 61.29% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | -100% | 723.34% | 12.94% | -113.06% | 30.89% | -13.12% | 966.98% | -79.07% | 106.64% | -45.4% | -21.11% | -22.05% | 19.63% | - |
| Operating Expenses | 2.47B | 4.78B | 1.35B | 652.1M | 575.8M | 431M | -2.35B | -2.14B | 460.7M | 276.8M | 521.1M | 712.8M | 526.8M | 496.4M | 357.5M |
| OpEx % of Revenue | - | 100% | 24.9% | 22% | 12.97% | 4.91% | -80.23% | -63.48% | 18.98% | 7.53% | 22.91% | 23.71% | 13.58% | 11.18% | 12.02% |
| Selling, General & Admin | 795.3M | 784.3M | 665.6M | 652.1M | 575.8M | 431M | 0 | 0 | 460.7M | 276.8M | 521.1M | 712.8M | 526.8M | 496.4M | 357.5M |
| SG&A % of Revenue | - | 16.41% | 12.27% | 22% | 12.97% | 4.91% | - | - | 18.98% | 7.53% | 22.91% | 23.71% | 13.58% | 11.18% | 12.02% |
| Research & Development | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| R&D % of Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Operating Expenses | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Operating Income | 85.8M | 0 | 1.37B | -1.09B | 1.72B | 4.21B | 580M | 1.23B | -144.2M | -71.4M | -11.2M | -7.4M | 1.17B | 1.68B | 1.46B |
| Operating Margin % | 2.11% | - | 25.24% | -36.73% | 38.85% | 47.88% | 19.77% | 36.52% | -5.94% | -1.94% | -0.49% | -0.25% | 30.21% | 37.9% | 49.26% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | -100% | 225.82% | -163.13% | -58.99% | 625% | -52.98% | 955.34% | -101.96% | -537.5% | -51.35% | -100.63% | -30.36% | 14.94% | - |
| EBITDA | 281.5M | 192.1M | 1.55B | -908M | 1.87B | 4.26B | 632.1M | 1.3B | -102.9M | -30.1M | 60.8M | 315.4M | 1.36B | 1.85B | 1.57B |
| EBITDA Margin % | 6.93% | 4.02% | 28.64% | -30.64% | 42.17% | 48.47% | 21.54% | 38.47% | -4.24% | -0.82% | 2.67% | 10.49% | 35.16% | 41.59% | 52.89% |
| EBITDA Growth % | -2.73% | -87.64% | 271.12% | -148.51% | -56.03% | 573.47% | -51.34% | 1362.39% | -241.86% | -149.51% | -80.72% | -76.88% | -26.13% | 17.46% | - |
| D&A (Non-Cash Add-back) | 195.7M | 192.1M | 184.1M | 180.6M | 147.4M | 52M | 52.1M | 65.6M | 41.3M | 41.3M | 72M | 322.8M | 192.1M | 163.6M | 107.8M |
| EBIT | 874.5M | 0 | 1.93B | -181.8M | 1.78B | 4.21B | 580M | 0 | 524.8M | 1.33B | 173.8M | 1.44B | 2.03B | 2.33B | 3.2B |
| Net Interest Income | -677.2M | -624.3M | -564.9M | -419.1M | -211.6M | -178M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Expense | 677.2M | 624.3M | 564.9M | 419.1M | 211.6M | 178M | 0 | 0 | 164.6M | 197.6M | 128.5M | 1.04B | 1.04B | 890.6M | 758.1M |
| Other Income/Expense | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pretax Income | 809.2M | 1.16B | 1.39B | -712.6M | 1.57B | 4.03B | 580M | 1.23B | 360.2M | 1.13B | 45.3M | 402.2M | 991.9M | 1.44B | 2.44B |
| Pretax Margin % | 19.93% | 24.25% | 25.69% | -24.04% | 35.43% | 45.86% | 19.77% | 36.52% | 14.84% | 30.8% | 1.99% | 13.38% | 25.56% | 32.51% | 82.07% |
| Income Tax | 165M | 214.5M | 302.6M | -104.2M | 287.8M | 982M | 197M | 49M | 31.3M | 124.9M | 30M | 2.1M | 76.8M | 96.2M | 40.4M |
| Effective Tax Rate % | 20.39% | 18.5% | 21.71% | 14.62% | 18.3% | 24.39% | 33.97% | 3.97% | 8.69% | 11.03% | 66.23% | 0.52% | 7.74% | 6.66% | 1.66% |
| Net Income | 546.5M | 808.7M | 1.02B | -608.4M | 1.28B | 3.04B | 382M | 1.18B | 328.9M | 1.01B | 15.3M | 400.1M | 915.1M | 1.35B | 2.4B |
| Net Margin % | 13.46% | 16.92% | 18.81% | -20.53% | 28.94% | 34.67% | 13.02% | 35.07% | 13.55% | 27.4% | 0.67% | 13.31% | 23.58% | 30.35% | 80.71% |
| Net Income Growth % | -49.62% | -20.75% | 267.72% | -147.36% | -57.81% | 697.12% | -67.75% | 260.11% | -67.35% | 6484.31% | -96.18% | -56.28% | -32.1% | -43.83% | - |
| Net Income (Continuing) | 517.9M | 808.7M | 1.09B | -608.4M | 1.28B | 3.04B | 382M | 1.18B | 328.9M | 1.01B | 15.3M | 400.1M | 915.1M | 1.35B | 2.4B |
| Discontinued Operations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minority Interest | 1.97B | 1.3B | 740.7M | 593.1M | 0 | 0 | 241M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EPS (Diluted) | 1.52 | 2.18 | 2.77 | -1.68 | 3.51 | 8.40 | 1.07 | 9.48 | 2.90 | 10.07 | 0.05 | 1.34 | 13.37 | 4.84 | 9.24 |
| EPS Growth % | 668.42% | -21.3% | 264.88% | -147.86% | -58.21% | 685.05% | -88.71% | 226.9% | -71.2% | 20202.42% | -96.3% | -89.98% | 176.24% | -47.62% | - |
| EPS (Basic) | - | 2.25 | 2.85 | -1.68 | 3.51 | 8.40 | 1.07 | 9.48 | 2.90 | 10.93 | 0.18 | 5.37 | 14.57 | 29.21 | 56.38 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 359.19M | 370.91M | 368.02M | 361.4M | 365.71M | 362.57M | 358.39M | 124.88M | 113.39M | 100.08M | 308.52M | 298.74M | 68.46M | 278.25M | 259.7M |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 359.19M | 359.68M | 358.58M | 361.4M | 365.71M | 362.57M | 358.39M | 124.88M | 113.39M | 92.14M | 82.71M | 74.52M | 62.79M | 46.14M | 42.56M |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | - | - | 49.29% | - | 34.53% | 11.68% | 91.96% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Realization velocity and exit volatility
As indicated by the provided financial data, the firm experienced significant top-line instability, with revenue figures fluctuating wildly between $254 million and $1.9 billion over the last ten quarters, reflecting a heavy reliance on episodic performance-based income rather than consistent, predictable management fee growth.
The erratic revenue trajectory suggests that the firm remains highly sensitive to the timing of investment exits, which currently appear to be hampered by broader market conditions. Investors should monitor whether the shift toward credit-focused strategies can eventually smooth out these cyclical revenue troughs.
Based on reported income statements, gross margins have exhibited extreme volatility, swinging from negative territory in late 2023 to over 100% in late 2024, which highlights the inherent difficulty in forecasting profitability for an entity so deeply tied to variable performance-linked investment outcomes.
The lack of consistent gross margin stability implies that the firm's core profitability is not yet decoupled from the lumpy nature of private equity realizations. This volatility warrants caution, as it suggests that operating margins may remain under pressure during periods of sluggish M&A activity.
According to recent financial filings, the firm consistently records substantial stock-based compensation expenses, reaching as high as $287.1 million in a single quarter, which significantly dilutes the quality of reported net income and complicates the assessment of true operational profitability for equity holders.
The persistent use of equity-based incentives suggests that management is prioritizing talent retention, yet this practice creates a persistent wedge between GAAP earnings and cash-generative capacity. Analysts should adjust for these non-cash charges to better understand the underlying earnings power of the platform.
As reported in the income statement history, SG&A expenses have remained relatively sticky, often hovering near the $180 million to $220 million range despite significant revenue declines, indicating a high fixed-cost base that limits the firm's ability to rapidly adjust to cyclical downturns.
The inability to meaningfully scale down SG&A in line with revenue contraction suggests that the firm maintains a substantial overhead to support its global investment infrastructure. This cost rigidity may continue to weigh on operating income during periods where realization events are scarce.
Based on the provided data, the firm's reliance on performance allocations creates a structural vulnerability, as evidenced by the $1.1 billion operating loss in 2023Q4, which underscores the potential for rapid margin erosion when market conditions prevent the successful exit of portfolio assets.
Short-term observers may correctly point to the lack of consistent fee-related earnings as a primary risk factor, especially if the current high-rate environment continues to suppress exit velocity. The firm's valuation may remain depressed until it demonstrates a more robust, fee-driven earnings profile that is less dependent on market-timing.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying CGABL stock.
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) is profitable, generating $808.7M in net income for the fiscal year ending 2025 with a net profit margin of 16.9%.