Upside case
Bull case
$87+111.0%
CNQ would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 7x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 covering CNQ
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
-14.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $87
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $85.6B
CNQ price targets
Three scenarios for where CNQ stock could go
Current
~$41
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $41
Bear
$41
Base
$66
Bull
$87
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$66+60.2%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41+0.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CNQ down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
CNQ · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Canadian Natural Resources is a major integrated oil and gas producer with operations across Western Canada, the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil production—including synthetic crude oil, light/medium crude, and bitumen—with natural gas and natural gas liquids as secondary streams. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, long-life reserves—particularly its oil sands assets—which provide decades of low-decline production and operational scale.
Market Cap
$85.6B
Revenue TTM
$40.7B
Net Income TTM
$9.7B
Net Margin
23.8%
CNQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.44
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.54
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.59/$0.53
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.85/$0.74
Revenue
$7.8B/$7.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.44 | +15.9% | $7.1B/$7.0B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.54 | +14.8% | $6.8B/$6.6B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.59/$0.53 | +11.3% | $7.0B/$7.0B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.85/$0.74 | +14.9% | $7.8B/$7.6B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.9B
+10.2% YoY
FY2
$47.7B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.31
+14.6% YoY
FY2
$5.36
+0.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.2B
FCF Margin: 15.2%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.39
Expected Revenue
$9.0B
CNQ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CNQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $30.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas1
100.0%
+9.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North Sea
—
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil And Gas1 is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.4% YoY.
North Sea is the largest reported region at —, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CNQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $67 — implies +63.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
63.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNQ
11.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
54% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
CNQ
11.2x
vs
Energy
15.5x
27% discount
vs CNQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.2x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+46% premium
Forward PE
6.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-64%
Energy
12.5x
-46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-54%
Energy
15.5x
-27%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+46%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Energy
7.8x
+13%
5Y Avg
4.4x
+101%
Price/FCF
14.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-31%
Energy
13.8x
+4%
5Y Avg
7.4x
+94%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-12%
Energy
1.4x
+93%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+70%
Dividend Yield
4.01%
S&P 500
1.91%
+109%
Energy
3.47%
+16%
5Y Avg
6.04%
-34%
| Metric | CNQ | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg CNQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.8x | 18.8x-64% | 12.5x-46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.2x | 24.4x-54% | 15.5x-27% | 7.7x+46% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8x | 15.2x-42% | 7.8x+13% | 4.4x+101% |
| Price/FCF | 14.3x | 20.7x-31% | 13.8x | 7.4x+94% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-12% | 1.4x+93% | 1.6x+70% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.01% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 6.04% |
CNQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNQ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CNQ generates $6.2B in free cash flow at a 15.2% margin — 10.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$40.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$672M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
4.0%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCNQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Competitive displacement risk
A revitalized Venezuelan oil industry may displace Canadian heavy crude in U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, impacting CNQ's market share.
Medium
Market volatility exposure
CNQ's diversified portfolio provides resilience, but oil and gas price fluctuations remain a persistent risk to cash flows.
Lower
Operational execution risk
Record production targets and acquisitions present execution challenges that could strain operational efficiency.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Low-decline oil sands assets
The company's oil sands assets have a low decline rate, providing stable long-term production.
Strong capital allocation
CNQ's effective capital allocation supports dividends and share buybacks, enhancing shareholder value.
Robust free cash flow
The company generates significant free cash flow, which funds dividends and buybacks.
Attractive valuation metrics
CNQ's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 14.18 and 16.31 suggest the stock is reasonably priced.
Stock price appreciation
CNQ's stock price has appreciated by 16.50% since prior coverage, indicating strong performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$41.05
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.30
+40.1% from the low
52-Week High
$51.34
-20.0% from the high
1 Month
-16.14%
3 Month
-16.40%
YTD
+19.6%
1 Year
+22.2%
3Y CAGR
+15.5%
5Y CAGR
+19.0%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.8x
vs 6.6x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.2%
vs +1.4% median
+624% above peer median
Net Margin
23.8%
vs 8.6% median
+177% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $85.6B | 6.8x | +10.2% | 23.8% | Buy | -14.7% |
CVE CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | $47.4B | 5.5x | +1.3% | 9.4% | Hold | +15.3% |
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $65.7B | 6.1x | +5.1% | 12.2% | Buy | +28.3% |
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $56.0B | 8.8x | +1.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -60.0% |
MEG MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. | $566M | 122.1x | +9.4% | 0.7% | Buy | +215.4% |
OVV OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $14.7B | 6.6x | +1.4% | 8.6% | Buy | +25.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNQ Dividend and Capital Return
CNQ returns 5.2% total yield, led by a 4.01% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
4.01%
Payout Ratio
45.0%
How CNQ Splits Its Return
Div 4.01%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 4.01%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
-1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
22.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
35M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.1B
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.69 | +9.2% | 2.0% | 8.9% |
| 2024 | $1.55 | +13.7% | 4.0% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | -22.1% | 4.6% | 10.0% |
| 2022 | $1.75 | +123.8% | 8.8% | 16.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCNQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying -14.7% from the current price of $41. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $87.
02What is the CNQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNQ is $35 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $35 (-14.7% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-14.7%). The base case model target is $66.
03Is Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNQ trades at 6.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNQ in 2026 are: (1) Competitive displacement risk — A revitalized Venezuelan oil industry may displace Canadian heavy crude in U. (2) Market volatility exposure — CNQ's diversified portfolio provides resilience, but oil and gas price fluctuations remain a persistent risk to cash flows. (3) Operational execution risk — Record production targets and acquisitions present execution challenges that could strain operational efficiency. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Canadian Natural Resources Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNQ will report consensus revenue of $44.9B (+10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.31 (+14.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $47.7B in revenue.
06When does Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) report its next earnings?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.39 and revenue of $9.0B. Over recent quarters, CNQ has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Canadian Natural Resources Limited generate?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) generated $6.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. CNQ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).