Upside case
Bull case
$204+346.8%
CNQ would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 covering CNQ
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
-23.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $204
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $95.2B
CNQ price targets
Three scenarios for where CNQ stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Base
$68
Bull
$204
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$68+49.0%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
CNQ · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Canadian Natural Resources is a major integrated oil and gas producer with operations across Western Canada, the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil production—including synthetic crude oil, light/medium crude, and bitumen—with natural gas and natural gas liquids as secondary streams. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, long-life reserves—particularly its oil sands assets—which provide decades of low-decline production and operational scale.
Market Cap
$95.2B
Revenue TTM
$41.5B
Net Income TTM
$10.8B
Net Margin
26.1%
CNQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.73
Revenue
$8.9B/$6.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.44
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.54
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.59/$0.53
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.81/$0.73 | +11.0% | $8.9B/$6.4B | +39.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.44 | +15.9% | $7.1B/$7.0B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.54 | +14.8% | $6.8B/$6.6B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.59/$0.53 | +11.3% | $7.0B/$7.0B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$43.4B
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$45.2B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.55
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$5.66
+2.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.3B
FCF Margin: 20.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.74
Expected Revenue
$7.6B
CNQ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CNQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $30.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil And Gas1
100.0%
+9.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North Sea
—
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil And Gas1 is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.4% YoY.
North Sea is the largest reported region at —, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CNQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $56 — implies +18.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNQ
12.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
CNQ
12.0x
vs
Energy
16.9x
29% discount
vs CNQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.0x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+56% premium
Forward PE
8.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-57%
Energy
13.2x
-38%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Energy
16.9x
-29%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+56%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-46%
Energy
8.1x
+1%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+94%
Price/FCF
15.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-28%
Energy
14.1x
+9%
5Y Avg
7.4x
+107%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Energy
1.6x
+114%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+102%
Dividend Yield
3.74%
S&P 500
1.88%
+99%
Energy
2.97%
+26%
5Y Avg
6.04%
-38%
| Metric | CNQ | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg CNQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.2x | 19.1x-57% | 13.2x-38% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.0x | 25.2x-52% | 16.9x-29% | 7.7x+56% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3x | 15.3x-46% | 8.1x | 4.3x+94% |
| Price/FCF | 15.4x | 21.3x-28% | 14.1x | 7.4x+107% |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 1.6x+114% | 1.6x+102% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.74% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 6.04% |
CNQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNQ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CNQ generates $8.3B in free cash flow at a 20.0% margin — 10.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$41.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$672M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.3× FCF
~2.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCNQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
CNQ's revenue is tightly linked to crude oil and natural gas prices. A 20% drop in realized synthetic crude oil prices in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024 could cut revenues sharply, exposing the company to market downturns. Volatility in global crude markets further amplifies this risk.
High Risk
High Debt Burden
CNQ has accumulated significant debt, especially after recent acquisitions. Reduced cash flow generation and high leverage increase financial risk, potentially limiting capital for growth and raising default risk. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio has risen, tightening its financial flexibility.
Medium
Operational & Production Challenges
Oil sands mining and bitumen extraction incur higher operating costs than conventional crude. Production declines from maintenance, decommissioning, and field aging have already impacted output. Large projects like Pike 2 SAGD and Jackfish expansion face cost overruns, technical issues, and delays, while cybersecurity threats could cause operational downtime and revenue loss.
Medium
Geopolitical & Supply Risks
CNQ operates in the North Sea and offshore Africa, exposing it to geopolitical tensions. Middle East events, such as Strait of Hormuz restrictions, can trigger supply shocks and add a risk premium to oil prices. Trade disputes and global tensions may disrupt trade flows and increase operational costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Production & Expansion Outlook
Canadian Natural Resources hit record production in 2023, with output accelerating thanks to strong upgrader utilization. The company plans to drill a significant number of new wells and has a roadmap for incremental oil sands capacity, positioning it for continued growth.
Long-Life Reserves & Project Pipeline
CNQ holds substantial long-life oil sands reserves and thermal projects that are expected to underpin stronger future performance. These reserves provide a durable asset base that supports long-term production and cash generation.
Cost Efficiency & Regulatory Approvals
The firm is focused on cost savings and has secured regulatory approvals for expansion projects, enhancing funds flow and margin resilience. These approvals enable the company to scale operations while maintaining cost discipline.
Strong Free Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns
CNQ generates significant free cash flow, with projections indicating continued strength in coming years. The company commits to returning 100% of free cash flow once net debt is at or below a threshold and maintains an active buyback program.
Dividend Growth & 26-Year Streak
CNQ has a history of increasing its dividend, boasting a 26-year consecutive growth streak and a recent dividend hike. This track record underscores the company’s commitment to rewarding shareholders.
Industry Tailwinds – Tight Oil Market
Global supply disruptions have tightened oil markets, leading to higher realized prices and increased cash generation for Canadian producers. This environment benefits CNQ’s cash flow and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.63
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$28.15
+62.1% from the low
52-Week High
$51.34
-11.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.43%
3 Month
+16.70%
YTD
+33.0%
1 Year
+59.9%
3Y CAGR
+16.9%
5Y CAGR
+22.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.2x
vs 7.8x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.7%
vs -0.5% median
+1069% above peer median
Net Margin
26.1%
vs 7.7% median
+240% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $95.2B | 8.2x | +4.7% | 26.1% | Buy | -23.3% |
CVE CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | $54.6B | 7.6x | -4.6% | 7.7% | Hold | -4.6% |
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $76.6B | 7.8x | +2.3% | 12.1% | Buy | -3.6% |
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $63.6B | 15.2x | -3.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -64.8% |
MEG MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. | $798M | 172.3x | +16.2% | 0.7% | Buy | +123.5% |
OVV OVV Ovintiv Inc. | $15.2B | 7.7x | -0.5% | 14.1% | Buy | -6.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNQ Dividend and Capital Return
CNQ returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 3.74% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
3.74%
Payout Ratio
45.0%
How CNQ Splits Its Return
Div 3.74%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 3.74%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
22.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
32M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.1B
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.69 | +9.2% | 2.0% | 8.9% |
| 2024 | $1.55 | +13.7% | 4.0% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | -22.1% | 4.6% | 10.0% |
| 2022 | $1.75 | +123.8% | 8.8% | 16.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCNQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying -23.3% from the current price of $46.
02What is the CNQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNQ is $35 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $35 (-23.3% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-23.3%). The base case model target is $68.
03Is Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNQ trades at 8.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNQ in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — CNQ's revenue is tightly linked to crude oil and natural gas prices. (2) High Debt Burden — CNQ has accumulated significant debt, especially after recent acquisitions. (3) Operational & Production Challenges — Oil sands mining and bitumen extraction incur higher operating costs than conventional crude. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Canadian Natural Resources Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNQ will report consensus revenue of $43.4B (+4.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.55 (+7.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.2B in revenue.
06When does Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) report its next earnings?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.74 and revenue of $7.6B. Over recent quarters, CNQ has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Canadian Natural Resources Limited generate?
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) generated $8.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.0%. CNQ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).