Upside case
Bull case
$199+209.7%
SU would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering SU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
-3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$45 – $199
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $76.6B
SU price targets
Three scenarios for where SU stock could go
Current
~$64
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $64
Bear
$45
Base
$104
Bull
$199
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$104+61.2%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$45-30.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push SU down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Suncor Energy Inc.
SU · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Suncor Energy is an integrated Canadian energy company that develops oil sands resources and operates across the full energy value chain. It generates revenue primarily from oil sands production (~60% of operating earnings), complemented by exploration and production assets, and refining/marketing operations through its Petro-Canada retail network. The company's key advantage is its integrated business model—controlling production, upgrading, refining, and retail distribution—which provides operational stability and cost efficiencies across volatile energy cycles.
Market Cap
$76.6B
Revenue TTM
$48.9B
Net Income TTM
$5.9B
Net Margin
12.1%
SU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.86
Revenue
$8.7B/$9.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.50
Revenue
$9.4B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$0.85
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.79/$0.77
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.91/$0.86 | +5.8% | $8.7B/$9.6B | -9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.50 | +2.0% | $9.4B/$8.8B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$0.85 | +25.9% | $9.0B/$8.8B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.79/$0.77 | +2.6% | $8.8B/$8.9B | -1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$50.0B
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$49.2B
-1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.85
+18.7% YoY
FY2
$5.75
-1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.9B
FCF Margin: 14.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
-17.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, down 17.1% YoY.
SU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $87 — implies +29.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
29.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SU
18.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
29% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
SU
18.0x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+7% premium
vs SU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.0x
vs
5Y Average
7.1x
+153% premium
Forward PE
7.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-59%
Energy
13.2x
-41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-29%
Energy
16.9x
+7%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+153%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-66%
Energy
8.1x
-37%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+101%
Price/FCF
15.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-29%
Energy
14.1x
+6%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+165%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-32%
Energy
1.6x
+36%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+133%
Dividend Yield
2.63%
S&P 500
1.88%
+40%
Energy
2.97%
-11%
5Y Avg
5.59%
-53%
| Metric | SU | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg SU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.8x | 19.1x-59% | 13.2x-41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.0x | 25.2x-29% | 16.9x | 7.1x+153% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2x | 15.3x-66% | 8.1x-37% | 2.6x+101% |
| Price/FCF | 15.0x | 21.3x-29% | 14.1x | 5.7x+165% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-32% | 1.6x+36% | 0.9x+133% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.63% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 5.59% |
SU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SU generates $6.9B in free cash flow at a 14.2% margin — 20.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$48.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.93
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
~2.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Oil Price Sensitivity
Suncor’s earnings are tightly linked to crude oil and refined product prices. Sharp swings—both upward and downward—can erode margins, as the company’s cost structure is largely fixed while revenue fluctuates with market prices. Volatility in global oil markets therefore poses a high financial risk.
High Risk
Climate Regulation Impact
The company’s oil sands exposure subjects it to rising carbon pricing and stricter environmental regulations. Higher emission costs and potential demand erosion from electrification could compress future margins, especially as the global shift toward low‑carbon fuels accelerates. This long‑term risk is rated high due to its material impact on profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory & Regional Exposure
Suncor relies heavily on Canadian revenues and is vulnerable to domestic economic cycles and policy shifts. Regulatory changes in the energy sector can alter operating costs and capital requirements, while regional market dynamics may affect demand for its products. These sector‑specific risks warrant a high severity rating.
Medium
Valuation & Leverage
While the current ratio (1.39) and debt‑to‑equity (0.32) indicate a solid balance sheet, the Altman Z‑Score of 2.56 signals some financial stress. Additionally, the stock trades at P/E, P/S, and P/B ratios near multi‑year highs, suggesting potential overvaluation. This medium‑severity risk could affect future upside.
Medium
Technical Overvaluation
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 65.9, approaching overbought territory. A pullback could occur if the market corrects, potentially impacting short‑term price performance. This medium‑severity risk is tied to technical market dynamics.
Lower
Capital Expenditure Pressure
Ongoing maintenance requirements and potential regulatory pressures may limit the value added by buybacks and dividends. If capital expenditures rise, free cash flow could be constrained, affecting shareholder returns. This lower‑severity risk is operational in nature.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Capitalization Leadership
Suncor Energy boasts a market capitalization exceeding C$106 billion, underscoring its dominant presence in the Canadian energy sector. This scale provides resilience and access to capital for growth initiatives.
Robust Earnings Profile
The company reported earnings per share of C$1.10, reflecting solid profitability. Consistent EPS growth supports dividend sustainability and shareholder returns.
Record Upstream Production
Suncor achieved record upstream production, with output reaching approximately 870,000 barrels per day. This volume growth, coupled with a target of $2 billion increase in normalized free cash flow by 2028, signals operational efficiency.
Shareholder Return Focus
Suncor maintains a dividend yield of roughly 3.7–4.0% and actively repurchases shares, allocating nearly 100% of excess cash flow to buybacks after meeting net debt targets. This strategy enhances shareholder value.
Technical Momentum
The stock exhibits a strong technical uptrend, with a bull flag pattern and performance above key moving averages. It has outperformed 93% of the market over the past year, indicating potential breakout opportunities.
Strategic Growth Plan
Investor Day revealed a three-year plan targeting free cash flow growth, buybacks, and contingent resources. The plan includes meeting net debt targets and allocating excess cash to share repurchases.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$64.32
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.50
+92.0% from the low
52-Week High
$70.29
-8.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.66%
3 Month
+19.55%
YTD
+41.1%
1 Year
+83.1%
3Y CAGR
+28.9%
5Y CAGR
+22.8%
10Y CAGR
+9.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.8x
vs 15.0x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
vs +7.0% median
-67% below peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 8.9% median
+36% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $76.6B | 7.8x | +2.3% | 12.1% | Buy | -3.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $369.4B | 15.2x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $629.6B | 15.0x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +8.0% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $144.9B | 13.8x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +6.9% |
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $95.2B | 8.2x | +4.7% | 26.1% | Buy | -23.3% |
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $63.6B | 15.2x | -3.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -64.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SU Dividend and Capital Return
SU returns 5.6% annually — 2.63% through dividends and 3.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
2.63%
Payout Ratio
47.4%
How SU Splits Its Return
Div 2.63%
Buyback 3.0%
Dividend 2.63%Buybacks 3.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.6%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
49M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 4.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.44 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.66 | +3.2% | 5.8% | 11.0% |
| 2024 | $1.61 | +3.4% | 6.4% | 12.5% |
| 2023 | $1.55 | +7.3% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 2022 | $1.45 | +73.4% | 11.6% | 17.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying -3.6% from the current price of $64. The bear case scenario is $45 and the bull case is $199.
02What is the SU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SU is $62 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $70 (+8.8% from today), and the low-end target is $54 (-16.0%). The base case model target is $104.
03Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock overvalued in 2026?
SU trades at 7.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SU in 2026 are: (1) Oil Price Sensitivity — Suncor’s earnings are tightly linked to crude oil and refined product prices. (2) Climate Regulation Impact — The company’s oil sands exposure subjects it to rising carbon pricing and stricter environmental regulations. (3) Regulatory & Regional Exposure — Suncor relies heavily on Canadian revenues and is vulnerable to domestic economic cycles and policy shifts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Suncor Energy Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SU will report consensus revenue of $50.0B (+2.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.85 (+18.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $49.2B in revenue.
06When does Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Suncor Energy Inc. generate?
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) generated $6.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.2%. SU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($3.1B TTM).