Upside case
Bull case
$151+172.2%
SU would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 6x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering SU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$71
+28.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$72 – $151
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $65.7B
SU price targets
Three scenarios for where SU stock could go
Current
~$55
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $55
Bear
$72
Base
$114
Bull
$151
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$114+106.6%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$72+30.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SU down roughly 30% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Suncor Energy Inc.
SU · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Suncor Energy is an integrated Canadian energy company that develops oil sands resources and operates across the full energy value chain. It generates revenue primarily from oil sands production (~60% of operating earnings), complemented by exploration and production assets, and refining/marketing operations through its Petro-Canada retail network. The company's key advantage is its integrated business model—controlling production, upgrading, refining, and retail distribution—which provides operational stability and cost efficiencies across volatile energy cycles.
Market Cap
$65.7B
Revenue TTM
$52.0B
Net Income TTM
$6.3B
Net Margin
12.2%
SU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.50
Revenue
$9.4B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$0.85
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.79/$0.77
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.45
Revenue
$10.4B/$9.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.50 | +2.0% | $9.4B/$8.8B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$0.85 | +25.9% | $9.0B/$8.8B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.79/$0.77 | +2.6% | $8.8B/$8.9B | -1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41/$1.45 | -2.8% | $10.4B/$9.2B | +12.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$54.6B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$56.3B
+3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.30
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$6.44
+2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.2B
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.96
Expected Revenue
$11.6B
SU beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
-17.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, down 17.1% YoY.
SU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $126 — implies +127.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
127.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SU
16.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
34% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
SU
16.1x
vs
Energy
15.5x
In line with benchmark
vs SU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.1x
vs
5Y Average
7.1x
+126% premium
Forward PE
6.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-67%
Energy
12.5x
-51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-34%
Energy
15.5x
+4%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+126%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-69%
Energy
7.8x
-40%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+81%
Price/FCF
13.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-35%
Energy
13.8x
-3%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+136%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Energy
1.4x
+34%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+107%
Dividend Yield
2.95%
S&P 500
1.91%
+54%
Energy
3.47%
-15%
5Y Avg
5.59%
-47%
| Metric | SU | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg SU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.1x | 18.8x-67% | 12.5x-51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.1x | 24.4x-34% | 15.5x | 7.1x+126% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7x | 15.2x-69% | 7.8x-40% | 2.6x+81% |
| Price/FCF | 13.4x | 20.7x-35% | 13.8x | 5.7x+136% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 1.4x+34% | 0.9x+107% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 5.59% |
SU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SU generates $7.2B in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin — 20.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$52.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.32
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.0× FCF
~2.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Commodity cycle risks
The energy sector faces maturing commodity cycles and evolving policy frameworks, which could pressure Suncor's growth and profitability.
Lower
Investment exclusion
Suncor Energy was not listed among the top 10 TSX stocks for 2026 by The Motley Fool Canada, suggesting potential underperformance concerns.
High Risk
Energy transition pressures
Suncor's shift to in-situ oil sands production by 2040 aims to address lower-cost, lower-emission output, but execution risks remain amid energy transition challenges.
Medium
Capital expenditure risks
Upcoming earnings may update guidance on Suncor's C$5.7 billion capital expenditures, with potential overruns or delays impacting financial health.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Increased share buybacks
Suncor Energy has committed to increasing its share buybacks by 10% to CA$275 million per month in 2026, totaling about CA$3.30 billion, signaling strong capital return to shareholders.
Bull flag pattern formation
Suncor Energy formed a bull flag pattern following strong Q1 2026 earnings, with the stock trading at $65.12 and a high structure score of 14.7/15, indicating a well-defined consolidation.
Upstream production growth
Suncor's 2026 corporate guidance highlights upstream production growth and refining utilization, aiming to build on recent performance under CEO Rich Kruger.
Strong Q1 2026 results
Suncor Energy reported stronger first-quarter 2026 results, with higher sales, revenue, net income, and upstream production, while maintaining a quarterly dividend of C$0.60 per share.
Positive analyst price target
Wall Street analysts have a 12-month price target of $72.00 for Suncor Energy, representing a 16.9% upside, with a 2030 base case of $54.63.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$55.33
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$37.23
+48.6% from the low
52-Week High
$70.29
-21.3% from the high
1 Month
-20.65%
3 Month
-10.73%
YTD
+21.4%
1 Year
+38.2%
3Y CAGR
+23.9%
5Y CAGR
+18.8%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.1x
vs 10.6x median
-42% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +7.8% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
12.2%
vs 8.9% median
+37% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $65.7B | 6.1x | +5.1% | 12.2% | Buy | +28.3% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $131.3B | 10.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.4% |
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $85.6B | 6.8x | +10.2% | 23.8% | Buy | -14.7% |
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $56.0B | 8.8x | +1.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -60.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SU Dividend and Capital Return
SU returns 6.3% annually — 2.95% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
2.95%
Payout Ratio
47.4%
How SU Splits Its Return
Div 2.95%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 2.95%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.6%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
57M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.87 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.66 | +3.2% | 5.8% | 11.0% |
| 2024 | $1.61 | +3.4% | 6.4% | 12.5% |
| 2023 | $1.55 | +7.3% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 2022 | $1.45 | +73.4% | 11.6% | 17.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $71, implying +28.3% from the current price of $55. The bear case scenario is $72 and the bull case is $151.
02What is the SU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SU is $71 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $72 (+30.1% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (+26.5%). The base case model target is $114.
03Is Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock overvalued in 2026?
SU trades at 6.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SU in 2026 are: (1) Energy transition pressures — Suncor's shift to in-situ oil sands production by 2040 aims to address lower-cost, lower-emission output, but execution risks remain amid energy transition challenges. (2) Commodity cycle risks — The energy sector faces maturing commodity cycles and evolving policy frameworks, which could pressure Suncor's growth and profitability. (3) Capital expenditure risks — Upcoming earnings may update guidance on Suncor's C$5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Suncor Energy Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SU will report consensus revenue of $54.6B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.30 (+18.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $56.3B in revenue.
06When does Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) report its next earnings?
Suncor Energy Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.96 and revenue of $11.6B. Over recent quarters, SU has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Suncor Energy Inc. generate?
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) generated $7.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. SU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($3.1B TTM).