Upside case
Bull case
$300+166.6%
IMO would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
20
analysts
4 bullish · 6 bearish · 20 covering IMO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
10
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
-60.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$143 – $300
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.0B
IMO price targets
Three scenarios for where IMO stock could go
Current
~$113
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $113
Bear
$143
Base
$228
Bull
$300
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$228+102.3%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$143+27.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push IMO down roughly 27% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Imperial Oil Limited
IMO · AMEXEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Imperial Oil is a major integrated Canadian oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products. It generates revenue through upstream oil and gas production (~60% of earnings) and downstream refining/marketing operations (~40%), including its network of Esso and Mobil-branded retail stations. The company benefits from integrated operations—controlling the entire value chain from production to retail—and extensive infrastructure assets including refineries, pipelines, and a large retail network.
Market Cap
$56.0B
Revenue TTM
$47.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.3B
Net Margin
6.9%
IMO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.22
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.44
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.36
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.67
Revenue
$8.9B/$8.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.22 | +9.8% | $6.0B/$6.5B | -8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57/$1.44 | +9.0% | $6.2B/$6.7B | -8.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.41/$1.36 | +3.7% | $6.0B/$6.4B | -6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41/$1.67 | -15.6% | $8.9B/$8.6B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$47.6B
+1.2% YoY
FY2
$48.0B
+0.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.97
+23.0% YoY
FY2
$8.70
+9.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.7B
FCF Margin: 10.0%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.61
Expected Revenue
$12.1B
IMO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IMO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $69.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Downstream
75.0%
-8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Downstream is the largest disclosed segment at 75.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 8.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
IMO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $102 — implies -9.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
9.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IMO
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Energy Trailing P/E
IMO
24.5x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+59% premium
vs IMO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
8.3x
+195% premium
Forward PE
8.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-53%
Energy
12.5x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+0%
Energy
15.5x
+59%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+195%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-21%
Energy
7.8x
+53%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+149%
Price/FCF
16.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-19%
Energy
13.8x
+22%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+93%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Energy
1.4x
+19%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+137%
Dividend Yield
1.75%
S&P 500
1.91%
-9%
Energy
3.47%
-50%
5Y Avg
3.17%
-45%
| Metric | IMO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg IMO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.8x | 18.8x-53% | 12.5x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 24.4x | 15.5x+59% | 8.3x+195% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0x | 15.2x-21% | 7.8x+53% | 4.8x+149% |
| Price/FCF | 16.8x | 20.7x-19% | 13.8x+22% | 8.7x+93% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 1.4x+19% | 0.7x+137% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.75% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.17% |
IMO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIMO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
IMO generates $4.7B in free cash flow at a 10.0% margin — 12.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$47.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.8%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
4.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
497M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Revenue volatility
A bear case scenario could see a -5% decline in revenue if oil prices weaken, impacting near-term financial performance.
High Risk
Long-term growth uncertainty
Imperial's long-term growth trajectory depends heavily on technology advancements, which introduces execution and adoption risks.
Medium
Execution risk
Upstream production targets for 2026 (441,000-460,000 boe/d) rely on key projects like Strathcona Renewed and Cold Lake Grand Rapids, which may face delays or cost overruns.
Lower
EPS confidence
The projected EPS of $7.61 for the next fiscal year carries a moderate confidence score of 56/100, reflecting uncertainty in revenue and margin trends.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IMO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong momentum stock
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) has soared to a 52-week high, indicating strong market momentum and potential for further gains.
Bullish investor sentiment
A bullish thesis on IMO highlights positive investor sentiment and potential upside in the stock.
Robust financial health
Deep dive analysis reveals Imperial Oil's strong financial health, making it an attractive investment.
Record stock performance
IMO's stock has been on a record run, prompting discussions on whether to hold or lock in profits.
Investor resources available
Imperial Oil provides comprehensive investor resources, including performance data and financial reports, enhancing transparency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IMO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$112.55
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.20
+45.8% from the low
52-Week High
$139.44
-19.3% from the high
1 Month
-18.64%
3 Month
-10.38%
YTD
+26.3%
1 Year
+38.7%
3Y CAGR
+32.0%
5Y CAGR
+29.2%
10Y CAGR
+13.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IMO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.8x
vs 6.8x median
+30% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.2%
vs +5.1% median
-76% below peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 9.4% median
-26% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $56.0B | 8.8x | +1.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -60.0% |
CVE CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | $47.4B | 5.5x | +1.3% | 9.4% | Hold | +15.3% |
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $65.7B | 6.1x | +5.1% | 12.2% | Buy | +28.3% |
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $85.6B | 6.8x | +10.2% | 23.8% | Buy | -14.7% |
MEG MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. | $566M | 122.1x | +9.4% | 0.7% | Buy | +215.4% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $70.9B | 8.2x | +3.9% | 3.4% | Buy | +6.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IMO Dividend and Capital Return
IMO returns capital mainly through $3.2B/year in buybacks (4.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.75% dividend — combining for 5.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.1%
Dividend Yield
1.75%
Payout Ratio
42.9%
How IMO Splits Its Return
Div 1.75%
Buyback 4.1%
Dividend 1.75%Buybacks 4.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.5%
5Y Div CAGR
25.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
29M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
497M
At 5.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.06 | +18.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% |
| 2024 | $1.75 | +22.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% |
| 2023 | $1.43 | +27.2% | 11.5% | 14.9% |
| 2022 | $1.12 | +36.6% | 20.5% | 23.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsIMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying -60.0% from the current price of $113. The bear case scenario is $143 and the bull case is $300.
02What is the IMO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IMO is $45 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $47 (-58.2% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-61.8%). The base case model target is $228.
03Is Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock overvalued in 2026?
IMO trades at 8.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IMO in 2026 are: (1) Long-term growth uncertainty — Imperial's long-term growth trajectory depends heavily on technology advancements, which introduces execution and adoption risks. (2) Revenue volatility — A bear case scenario could see a -5% decline in revenue if oil prices weaken, impacting near-term financial performance. (3) Execution risk — Upstream production targets for 2026 (441,000-460,000 boe/d) rely on key projects like Strathcona Renewed and Cold Lake Grand Rapids, which may face delays or cost overruns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Imperial Oil Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IMO will report consensus revenue of $47.6B (+1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.97 (+23.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.0B in revenue.
06When does Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) report its next earnings?
Imperial Oil Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $3.61 and revenue of $12.1B. Over recent quarters, IMO has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Imperial Oil Limited generate?
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) generated $4.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.0%. IMO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($3.2B TTM).