Upside case
Bull case
$573+331.2%
IMO would need investors to value it at roughly 68x earnings — about 52x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
20
analysts
4 bullish · 6 bearish · 20 covering IMO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
10
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
-66.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$30 – $573
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.1B
IMO price targets
Three scenarios for where IMO stock could go
Current
~$133
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $133
Bear
$30
Base
$224
Bull
$573
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$224+68.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$30-77.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push IMO down roughly 77% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Imperial Oil Limited
IMO · AMEXEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Imperial Oil is a major integrated Canadian oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets petroleum products. It generates revenue through upstream oil and gas production (~60% of earnings) and downstream refining/marketing operations (~40%), including its network of Esso and Mobil-branded retail stations. The company benefits from integrated operations—controlling the entire value chain from production to retail—and extensive infrastructure assets including refineries, pipelines, and a large retail network.
Market Cap
$66.1B
Revenue TTM
$47.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.3B
Net Margin
6.9%
IMO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.22
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.44
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.36
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.67
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.22 | +9.8% | $6.0B/$6.5B | -8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57/$1.44 | +9.0% | $6.2B/$6.7B | -8.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.41/$1.36 | +3.7% | $6.0B/$6.4B | -6.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41/$1.67 | -15.6% | $6.6B/$6.3B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$45.5B
-3.2% YoY
FY2
$45.6B
+0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.60
+17.3% YoY
FY2
$8.02
+5.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.7B
FCF Margin: 10.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
IMO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IMO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $69.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Downstream
75.0%
-8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Downstream is the largest disclosed segment at 75.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 8.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
IMO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $123 — implies -4.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IMO
27.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+11% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
IMO
27.9x
vs
Energy
17.1x
+63% premium
vs IMO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.9x
vs
5Y Average
8.3x
+236% premium
Forward PE
15.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-17%
Energy
13.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+11%
Energy
17.1x
+63%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+236%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-11%
Energy
8.0x
+69%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+182%
Price/FCF
19.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-9%
Energy
13.8x
+39%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+120%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Energy
1.6x
+16%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+169%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
S&P 500
1.87%
-18%
Energy
2.73%
-44%
5Y Avg
3.17%
-51%
| Metric | IMO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg IMO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.8x | 19.1x-17% | 13.9x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.9x | 25.1x+11% | 17.1x+63% | 8.3x+236% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 15.2x-11% | 8.0x+69% | 4.8x+182% |
| Price/FCF | 19.1x | 21.1x | 13.8x+39% | 8.7x+120% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 1.6x+16% | 0.7x+169% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 3.17% |
IMO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIMO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
IMO generates $4.7B in free cash flow at a 10.0% margin — 12.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$47.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
497M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
Imperial Oil faces a 30% weighted risk from greenhouse gas restrictions, carbon pricing, and oil‑sands‑specific regulations. The Canadian and Alberta governments are collaborating on emissions‑reduction strategies that could raise compliance costs and limit production flexibility.
High Risk
Transportation Disruptions
Outages in third‑party pipeline infrastructure can impede the transport of crude and refined products, reducing price realizations and sales volumes. Such disruptions directly affect revenue and can create inventory bottlenecks.
Medium
Refining Crack Spreads & Differentials
Profitability hinges on refining crack spreads and Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials. Shifts in these spreads can erode margins, especially when WCS prices diverge from benchmark crude prices.
Medium
Geopolitical Volatility
Tensions in regions such as the Middle East can spike crude oil prices and alter global energy sentiment. Sudden geopolitical events may lead to price swings that impact Imperial Oil’s earnings.
Lower
Oversupply Risk
An oversupply in the global oil market could depress prices and reduce demand for Imperial Oil’s products. Excess supply can erode margins and force the company to cut production or lower prices.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IMO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Rising Oil Prices
WTI and Brent crude have surged above $100 a barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This price rally lifts Imperial Oil’s upstream revenue potential and improves margin outlook.
Strong Earnings Performance
Imperial Oil achieved its fifteenth consecutive earnings beat, topping estimates in Q4 2025. Consistent earnings outperformance signals robust operational efficiency.
Dividend Growth
The company has raised its dividend for 31 straight years and announced a 20% hike to its quarterly dividend in January 2026. Coupled with a relatively low payout ratio, this underscores strong cash flow generation.
Production Milestones
In 2025, Imperial Oil recorded its highest full‑year production in over 30 years, with upstream output reaching 438,000 gross oil‑equivalent barrels per day. This scale boosts revenue and economies of scale.
Strategic Investments
Imperial Oil commissioned Canada’s largest renewable diesel facility and is advancing an Enhanced Bitumen Recovery Technology pilot. These projects position the firm for future growth and diversification.
Market Position
Imperial Oil holds the number one retail market share in Canada for its Esso and Mobil brands. Dominant brand presence supports stable sales and pricing power.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IMO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$132.95
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.50
+97.0% from the low
52-Week High
$134.32
-1.0% from the high
1 Month
+2.75%
3 Month
+22.74%
YTD
+49.2%
1 Year
+96.4%
3Y CAGR
+41.8%
5Y CAGR
+34.3%
10Y CAGR
+15.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IMO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.8x
vs 8.6x median
+85% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-3.2%
vs +4.0% median
-180% below peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 5.7% median
+23% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IMO IMO Imperial Oil Limited | $66.1B | 15.8x | -3.2% | 6.9% | Hold | -66.2% |
CVE CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. | $57.4B | 8.0x | -4.6% | 5.7% | Hold | -9.1% |
SU SU Suncor Energy Inc. | $83.0B | 8.4x | +1.9% | 12.1% | Buy | -11.0% |
CNQ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Limited | $99.8B | 8.6x | +4.7% | 26.1% | Buy | -26.9% |
MEG MEG Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. | $766M | 166.5x | +16.2% | -0.1% | Buy | +131.3% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $76.7B | 11.7x | +4.0% | 3.4% | Buy | -17.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IMO Dividend and Capital Return
IMO returns capital mainly through $3.2B/year in buybacks (3.6% buyback yield), with a modest 1.54% dividend — combining for 5.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 27 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
1.54%
Payout Ratio
42.9%
How IMO Splits Its Return
Div 1.54%
Buyback 3.6%
Dividend 1.54%Buybacks 3.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
27Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.5%
5Y Div CAGR
25.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
497M
At 4.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.64 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.06 | +18.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% |
| 2024 | $1.75 | +22.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% |
| 2023 | $1.43 | +27.2% | 11.5% | 14.9% |
| 2022 | $1.12 | +36.6% | 20.5% | 23.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsIMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying -66.2% from the current price of $133. The bear case scenario is $30 and the bull case is $573.
02What is the IMO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IMO is $45 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $47 (-64.6% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-67.7%). The base case model target is $224.
03Is Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock overvalued in 2026?
IMO trades at 15.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IMO in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory — Imperial Oil faces a 30% weighted risk from greenhouse gas restrictions, carbon pricing, and oil‑sands‑specific regulations. (2) Transportation Disruptions — Outages in third‑party pipeline infrastructure can impede the transport of crude and refined products, reducing price realizations and sales volumes. (3) Refining Crack Spreads & Differentials — Profitability hinges on refining crack spreads and Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Imperial Oil Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IMO will report consensus revenue of $45.5B (-3.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.60 (+17.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.6B in revenue.
06When does Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for IMO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Imperial Oil Limited generate?
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) generated $4.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.0%. IMO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($3.2B TTM).