Upside case
Bull case
$674+120.6%
CPAY would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering CPAY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$362
+18.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$358 – $674
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.4B
CPAY price targets
Three scenarios for where CPAY stock could go
Current
~$305
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $305
Bear
$358
Base
$445
Bull
$674
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$445+45.8%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$358+17.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CPAY down roughly 17% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Corpay, Inc.
CPAY · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Corpay is a global payments company that helps businesses manage vehicle-related expenses, corporate payments, and lodging costs. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from its vehicle payment solutions — fuel, tolls, and fleet maintenance — and corporate payment automation services, with its cross-border and virtual card products forming significant segments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized vertical expertise in complex business payments and its established network of merchants and fuel providers across multiple countries.
Market Cap
$21.4B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
24.4%
CPAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$4.51/$4.51
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$5.13/$5.12
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.70/$5.63
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.04/$5.95
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $4.51/$4.51 | +0.0% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.13/$5.12 | +0.2% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.70/$5.63 | +1.2% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.04/$5.95 | +1.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$5.2B
+7.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.58
+25.7% YoY
FY2
$20.36
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 26.5%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.46
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
CPAY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CPAY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Payments
54.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Payments is the largest disclosed segment at 54.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CPAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $332 — implies +8.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
8.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CPAY
21.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
13% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CPAY
21.9x
vs
Technology
27.5x
20% discount
vs CPAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.9x
vs
5Y Average
23.3x
6% discount
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-38%
Technology
21.7x
-46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-13%
Technology
27.5x
-20%
5Y Avg
23.3x
-6%
PEG Ratio
3.10x
S&P 500
1.75x
+78%
Technology
1.47x
+112%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-15%
Technology
17.4x
-25%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-14%
Price/FCF
12.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-43%
Technology
19.8x
-39%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-26%
Price/Sales
5.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+72%
Technology
2.4x
+123%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-17%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CPAY | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CPAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 19.1x-38% | 21.7x-46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.9x | 25.2x-13% | 27.5x-20% | 23.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.10x | 1.75x+78% | 1.47x+112% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 15.3x-15% | 17.4x-25% | 15.2x-14% |
| Price/FCF | 12.1x | 21.3x-43% | 19.8x-39% | 16.5x-26% |
| Price/Sales | 5.4x | 3.1x+72% | 2.4x+123% | 6.5x-17% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
CPAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCPAY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CPAY generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 26.5% margin — 14.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
76.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.78
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.6× FCF
~5.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
6.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
72M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCPAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory and legal risks
Corpay is currently facing regulatory scrutiny due to an appellate decision related to an FTC case concerning deceptive advertising and unfair billing practices. This ongoing legal uncertainty, including potential shareholder lawsuits, could significantly impact the company's reputation and financial stability.
High Risk
Debt coverage issues
The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, which raises concerns about its ability to meet financial obligations. This could lead to increased borrowing costs or financial distress if cash flow does not improve.
High Risk
Macroeconomic exposure
Corpay is highly susceptible to macroeconomic conditions, including economic downturns and fluctuations in fuel and lodging prices. A deterioration in the macroeconomic environment could adversely affect the company's earnings and overall financial performance.
Medium
Execution risks from acquisitions
Corpay's growth strategy relies heavily on acquisitions, which introduces execution risks. The integration of recent acquisitions, such as AvidXchange and Alpha, may lead to higher-than-expected costs and could dilute anticipated benefits.
Medium
Interest rate sensitivity
Changes in interest rates can significantly affect Corpay's revenue streams, particularly float-related income. Lower interest rates may pressure these revenue dynamics, impacting overall financial performance.
Medium
Insider selling
There has been significant insider selling over the past three months, which may signal a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects. This could negatively affect investor sentiment and stock performance.
Lower
Cybersecurity threats
Corpay faces risks related to cybersecurity threats that could disrupt operations and compromise sensitive data. While the impact may be manageable, any significant breach could lead to financial losses and reputational damage.
Lower
Competition in payments industry
The payments industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. Increased competition could pressure margins and limit growth opportunities for Corpay.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CPAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Corpay is projected to achieve a 13.93% revenue increase in 2025, reaching $4.53 billion, with an expected 10% organic revenue growth for 2026. This consistent growth is driven by strong performance in its corporate and vehicle payments segments.
Impressive EPS Performance
The company reported a Q4 2025 EPS of $6.04, surpassing analyst expectations, and has beaten EPS estimates in its last four quarterly reports. For FY2026, Corpay has provided EPS guidance of $25.50–$26.50, indicating strong profitability.
High Return on Equity
Corpay boasts a return on equity of 25.3% and net margins of 23.6%, reflecting efficient management and strong profitability. These metrics position the company favorably compared to industry peers.
Strategic Business Initiatives
Corpay is focusing on corporate payments and has made strategic acquisitions, including divesting its mobile parking payments business to enhance its core offerings. This strategic focus is expected to drive further growth and market share.
Favorable Market Conditions
The company benefits from higher fuel transaction revenues due to elevated U.S. fuel prices, which serve as a tailwind for its vehicle payments segment. Additionally, strong demand for payment automation, as highlighted in a UK research report, supports Corpay's growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CPAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$305.43
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$252.84
+20.8% from the low
52-Week High
$361.99
-15.6% from the high
1 Month
+2.41%
3 Month
-13.77%
YTD
+1.6%
1 Year
-6.4%
3Y CAGR
+9.9%
5Y CAGR
+1.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CPAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 19.6x median
-40% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.3%
vs +4.6% median
+144% above peer median
Net Margin
24.4%
vs 9.2% median
+164% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CPA CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $21.4B | 11.7x | +11.3% | 24.4% | Buy | +18.6% |
WEX WEX WEX Inc. | $5.0B | 7.4x | +4.6% | 11.5% | Hold | +23.4% |
FLY FLYW Flywire Corporation | $2.1B | 48.9x | -5.1% | 6.6% | Buy | -0.1% |
PAY PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $1.7B | 19.6x | +12.9% | 7.0% | Buy | +54.3% |
CAS CASS Cass Information Systems, Inc. | $608M | 15.7x | -4.4% | 17.3% | Buy | +6.2% |
V V Visa Inc. | $611.6B | 24.4x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +13.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CPAY Dividend and Capital Return
CPAY returns 6.0% annually — null% through dividends and 6.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
6.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
72M
At 5.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCPAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $362, implying +18.6% from the current price of $305. The bear case scenario is $358 and the bull case is $674.
02What is the CPAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CPAY is $362 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $390 (+27.7% from today), and the low-end target is $300 (-1.8%). The base case model target is $445.
03Is Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
CPAY trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CPAY in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and legal risks — Corpay is currently facing regulatory scrutiny due to an appellate decision related to an FTC case concerning deceptive advertising and unfair billing practices. (2) Debt coverage issues — The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, which raises concerns about its ability to meet financial obligations. (3) Macroeconomic exposure — Corpay is highly susceptible to macroeconomic conditions, including economic downturns and fluctuations in fuel and lodging prices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Corpay, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CPAY will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+11.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.58 (+25.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.2B in revenue.
06When does Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) report its next earnings?
Corpay, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $5.46 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, CPAY has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Corpay, Inc. generate?
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.5%. CPAY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).