Upside case
Bull case
$792+129.4%
CPAY would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering CPAY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$386
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$379 – $792
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.6B
CPAY price targets
Three scenarios for where CPAY stock could go
Current
~$345
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $345
Bear
$379
Base
$601
Bull
$792
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$601+74.1%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$379+9.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CPAY down roughly 10% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Corpay, Inc.
CPAY · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Corpay is a global payments company that helps businesses manage vehicle-related expenses, corporate payments, and lodging costs. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from its vehicle payment solutions — fuel, tolls, and fleet maintenance — and corporate payment automation services, with its cross-border and virtual card products forming significant segments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized vertical expertise in complex business payments and its established network of merchants and fuel providers across multiple countries.
Market Cap
$22.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
24.6%
CPAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.13/$5.12
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.70/$5.63
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.04/$5.95
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.80/$5.47
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.13/$5.12 | +0.2% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.70/$5.63 | +1.2% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.04/$5.95 | +1.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.80/$5.47 | +6.0% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.4B
+12.3% YoY
FY2
$6.0B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.45
+30.6% YoY
FY2
$25.37
+13.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 27.4%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$6.56
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
CPAY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CPAY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Payments
50.4%
+6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
61.9%
+6.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Payments is the largest disclosed segment at 50.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 61.9%, up 6.1% YoY.
CPAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $428 — implies +24.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CPAY
23.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
6% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CPAY
23.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
21% discount
vs CPAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.0x
vs
5Y Average
20.6x
+12% premium
Forward PE
12.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-31%
Technology
22.3x
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-6%
Technology
29.0x
-21%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+12%
PEG Ratio
1.75x
S&P 500
1.66x
+6%
Technology
1.51x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Technology
16.6x
-39%
5Y Avg
12.7x
-21%
Price/FCF
17.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-16%
Technology
19.2x
-10%
5Y Avg
16.4x
+6%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+61%
Technology
2.4x
+104%
5Y Avg
5.4x
-8%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CPAY | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CPAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.9x | 18.8x-31% | 22.3x-42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.0x | 24.4x | 29.0x-21% | 20.6x+12% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.75x | 1.66x | 1.51x+16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-34% | 16.6x-39% | 12.7x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 17.4x | 20.7x-16% | 19.2x | 16.4x |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+61% | 2.4x+104% | 5.4x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
CPAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCPAY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CPAY generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 27.4% margin — 19.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
72.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
43.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$783M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
65M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCPAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Legacy business decline
The bear case highlights declining legacy businesses, which could limit growth to only +2-3%.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Competitive pressures in the fintech space may constrain Corpay's growth potential.
Lower
Mature industry transition
Corpay is transitioning into a mature, cash-generative fintech company, which may limit high-growth opportunities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CPAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong valuation metrics
Corpay's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 19.85 and 11.86 respectively indicate attractive valuation potential.
Global payment solutions
Corpay operates as a global S&P500 corporate payments company, offering modern payment solutions for businesses and consumers.
Diverse expense management
Corpay helps customers manage vehicle-related expenses, travel expenses, and payables, providing a comprehensive suite of services.
Bullish analyst sentiment
There is a bullish thesis on Corpay, Inc. highlighted by Outsized Returns's Substack, indicating positive analyst positioning.
Market positioning
Corpay is headquartered in the United States and operates in the Technology - Software - Infrastructure sector, positioning it well in a growing industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CPAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$345.28
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$252.84
+36.6% from the low
52-Week High
$367.43
-6.0% from the high
1 Month
-0.92%
3 Month
+20.76%
YTD
+14.9%
1 Year
+9.8%
3Y CAGR
+12.5%
5Y CAGR
+5.8%
10Y CAGR
+9.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CPAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.9x
vs 24.9x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.3%
vs +8.8% median
+40% above peer median
Net Margin
24.6%
vs 11.5% median
+114% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CPA CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $22.6B | 12.9x | +12.3% | 24.6% | Buy | +11.8% |
WEX WEX WEX Inc. | $4.4B | 6.6x | +6.9% | 11.5% | Hold | +37.3% |
FLY FLYW Flywire Corporation | $1.9B | 35.3x | +9.0% | 6.6% | Buy | +17.8% |
PAY PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $2.4B | 26.4x | +15.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +13.2% |
CAS CASS Cass Information Systems, Inc. | $639M | 16.6x | +0.1% | 17.3% | Buy | +3.0% |
V V Visa Inc. | $627.8B | 24.9x | +8.8% | 51.7% | Buy | +12.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CPAY Dividend and Capital Return
CPAY returns 3.5% annually — null% through dividends and 3.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$783M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
65M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCPAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $386, implying +11.8% from the current price of $345. The bear case scenario is $379 and the bull case is $792.
02What is the CPAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CPAY is $386 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $450 (+30.3% from today), and the low-end target is $340 (-1.5%). The base case model target is $601.
03Is Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
CPAY trades at 12.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CPAY in 2026 are: (1) Legacy business decline — The bear case highlights declining legacy businesses, which could limit growth to only +2-3%. (2) Competitive pressures — Competitive pressures in the fintech space may constrain Corpay's growth potential. (3) Mature industry transition — Corpay is transitioning into a mature, cash-generative fintech company, which may limit high-growth opportunities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Corpay, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CPAY will report consensus revenue of $5.4B (+12.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.45 (+30.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.0B in revenue.
06When does Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) report its next earnings?
Corpay, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $6.56 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, CPAY has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Corpay, Inc. generate?
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.4%. CPAY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($783M TTM).