Upside case
Bull case
$521+61.8%
V would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Visa Inc. (V) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
61
analysts
52 bullish · 0 bearish · 61 covering V
Strong Buy
0
Buy
52
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$362
+12.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$315 – $521
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
61
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $617.8B
V price targets
Three scenarios for where V stock could go
Current
~$322
Confidence
79 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $322
Bear
$315
Base
$451
Bull
$521
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$451+40.1%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$315-2.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push V down roughly 2% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Visa Inc.
V · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesSeptember year-end
Visa operates a global electronic payments network that connects consumers, merchants, and financial institutions. It generates revenue primarily from service fees on transaction processing (about 40% of revenue) and data processing fees (about 35%), with the remainder from international transaction fees and other services. The company's massive network scale — with billions of cards accepted at tens of millions of merchants worldwide — creates a powerful two-sided platform moat that's extremely difficult to replicate.
Market Cap
$617.8B
Net Income TTM
$22.2B
V Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.98/$2.85
Revenue
$10.2B/$9.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.98/$2.97
Revenue
$10.7B/$10.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.17/$3.14
Revenue
$10.9B/$10.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.31/$3.10
Revenue
$11.2B/$10.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.98/$2.85 | +4.6% | $10.2B/$9.8B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.98/$2.97 | +0.3% | $10.7B/$10.6B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.17/$3.14 | +1.0% | $10.9B/$10.7B | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.31/$3.10 | +6.8% | $11.2B/$10.8B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$45.0B
+12.6% YoY
FY2
$49.9B
+10.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.69
+10.3% YoY
FY2
$14.29
+12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$21.2B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
V beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
V Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $40.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Processing Revenues
50.0%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
60.9%
+15.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Processing Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.9% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 60.9%, up 15.2% YoY.
V Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $203 — implies -38.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
38.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
V
31.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+26% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
V
31.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+137% premium
vs V 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.6x
vs
5Y Average
30.9x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
24.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+29%
Financial Services
10.4x
+137%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+26%
Financial Services
13.3x
+137%
5Y Avg
30.9x
+2%
PEG Ratio
1.99x
S&P 500
1.72x
+16%
Financial Services
1.01x
+97%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+62%
Financial Services
11.4x
+116%
5Y Avg
24.2x
+2%
Price/FCF
28.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+36%
Financial Services
10.6x
+171%
5Y Avg
28.0x
+2%
Price/Sales
15.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+394%
Financial Services
2.2x
+594%
5Y Avg
16.0x
-4%
Dividend Yield
0.73%
S&P 500
1.87%
-61%
Financial Services
2.70%
-73%
5Y Avg
0.73%
+0%
| Metric | V | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg V |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.6x | 19.1x+29% | 10.4x+137% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.6x | 25.1x+26% | 13.3x+137% | 30.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.99x | 1.72x+16% | 1.01x+97% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.7x | 15.2x+62% | 11.4x+116% | 24.2x |
| Price/FCF | 28.6x | 21.1x+36% | 10.6x+171% | 28.0x |
| Price/Sales | 15.4x | 3.1x+394% | 2.2x+594% | 16.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.73% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.73% |
V trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolV Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
V generates 58.9% ROE and 22.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.50
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
58.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
22.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
58.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$13.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.36
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Scrutiny
Visa faces significant legal challenges over interchange fees and anti‑competitive practices that could erode profitability. Recent regulatory investigations in the U.S. and EU could impose fines or force fee reductions, impacting margins.
High Risk
FinTech Competition & Disintermediation
Rapid fintech innovation threatens Visa’s card network as mobile payments and alternative payment methods bypass traditional intermediaries. Partnerships between merchants and fintechs, plus Visa Direct and crypto experiments, may reduce transaction volumes.
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Data Breach Risk
Visa processes billions of card transactions; a major breach could damage brand trust and trigger regulatory penalties. A single high‑profile incident could lead to loss of merchant contracts and increased compliance costs.
Medium
Macroeconomic & Political Exposure
Visa’s growth is sensitive to global travel and e-commerce trends; the post‑pandemic decline in cross‑border travel has already slowed transaction volume growth. Political shifts, such as trade tensions or regulatory changes, could further affect cross‑border fee revenue.
Medium
Valuation Over‑Premium
Analysts note Visa trades at a premium to intrinsic value, raising concerns that earnings growth may not justify current price levels. A market correction could compress earnings multiples and impact shareholder returns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why V Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Duopoly Network Effects
Visa and Mastercard form a duopoly, creating a powerful network effect where more consumers attract more merchants, and vice versa, making it difficult for competitors to disrupt. This entrenched usage across everyday commerce provides Visa with durable pricing power and a cost advantage.
Double‑Digit Revenue Growth & High Margins
Visa has delivered double‑digit annualized revenue expansion over the past five years. Its gross margins exceed 50% and net margins significantly outpace market medians, reflecting a services‑heavy, low‑cost model.
Capital‑Light, High‑ROE Business
Visa operates a capital‑light model that requires minimal reinvestment for growth. It consistently generates high returns on equity and industry‑leading returns on invested capital, while returning cash to shareholders through aggressive share buybacks and a growing dividend.
AI‑Driven Value‑Added Services
Visa is embedding AI into its offerings, such as AI‑powered dispute resolution tools and automated corporate bill‑pay partnerships. This strategy aims to shift toward higher‑value, automation‑led services for enterprise clients, potentially boosting margins and customer stickiness.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
V Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$322.03
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$293.89
+9.6% from the low
52-Week High
$375.51
-14.2% from the high
1 Month
+6.16%
3 Month
-2.16%
YTD
-7.1%
1 Year
-7.6%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
V vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.6x
vs 8.8x median
+182% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.6%
vs +3.2% median
+299% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 9.3% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
V V Visa Inc. | $617.8B | 24.6x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +12.6% |
MA MA Mastercard Incorporated | $440.0B | 25.4x | +14.1% | — | Buy | +32.1% |
AXP AXP American Express Company | $216.7B | 17.9x | +2.2% | — | Hold | +18.2% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $42.8B | 8.8x | +3.2% | — | Hold | +11.2% |
FIS FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $24.1B | 7.4x | +14.7% | 3.5% | Buy | +44.6% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $30.6B | 7.1x | -1.6% | 15.2% | Buy | +30.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
V Dividend and Capital Return
V returns capital mainly through $13.4B/year in buybacks (2.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.73% dividend — combining for 2.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 17 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
0.73%
Payout Ratio
23.1%
How V Splits Its Return
Div 0.73%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 0.73%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.36
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
17Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$13.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
42M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.9B
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.34 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.44 | +13.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $2.15 | +15.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $1.87 | +18.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| 2022 | $1.57 | +18.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Visa Inc. (V) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Visa Inc. (V) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 61 analysts covering the stock, 52 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $362, implying +12.6% from the current price of $322. The bear case scenario is $315 and the bull case is $521.
02What is the V stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for V is $362 based on 61 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $415 (+28.9% from today), and the low-end target is $160 (-50.3%). The base case model target is $451.
03Is Visa Inc. (V) stock overvalued in 2026?
V trades at 24.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Visa Inc. (V) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for V in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Scrutiny — Visa faces significant legal challenges over interchange fees and anti‑competitive practices that could erode profitability. (2) FinTech Competition & Disintermediation — Rapid fintech innovation threatens Visa’s card network as mobile payments and alternative payment methods bypass traditional intermediaries. (3) Cybersecurity & Data Breach Risk — Visa processes billions of card transactions; a major breach could damage brand trust and trigger regulatory penalties. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Visa Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates V will report consensus revenue of $45.0B (+12.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.69 (+10.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $49.9B in revenue.
06When does Visa Inc. (V) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for V is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Visa Inc. generate?
Visa Inc. (V) generated $21.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. V returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($13.4B TTM).