Upside case
Bull case
$732+95.7%
CSL would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 26 covering CSL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$409
+9.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$239 – $732
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.3B
CSL price targets
Three scenarios for where CSL stock could go
Current
~$374
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $374
Bear
$239
Base
$499
Bull
$732
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$499+33.4%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$239-36.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push CSL down roughly 36% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carlisle Companies Incorporated
CSL · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Carlisle Companies is a diversified manufacturer of engineered products primarily serving the construction, aerospace, and industrial markets. It generates revenue through three main segments: Carlisle Construction Materials (~60% of sales) for building envelope systems, Carlisle Interconnect Technologies (~25%) for aerospace and defense wiring, and Carlisle Fluid Technologies (~15%) for liquid and powder coating equipment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized engineering expertise across niche industrial markets and strong brand recognition in commercial roofing systems.
Market Cap
$15.3B
Revenue TTM
$5.0B
Net Income TTM
$725M
Net Margin
14.6%
CSL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.27/$6.58
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.61/$5.47
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.90/$3.58
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.63/$3.31
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.27/$6.58 | -4.7% | $1.4B/$1.5B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.61/$5.47 | +2.6% | $1.3B/$1.1B | +21.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.90/$3.58 | +8.9% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.63/$3.31 | +9.7% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.0B
+1.1% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.50
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$22.83
+11.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$925M
FCF Margin: 18.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CSL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CSL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segments
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
48.2%
+5.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segments is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Europe is the largest reported region at 48.2%, up 5.4% YoY.
CSL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $434 — implies +21.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CSL
21.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
13% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CSL
21.8x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
16% discount
vs CSL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.8x
vs
5Y Average
19.5x
+12% premium
Forward PE
17.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-7%
Industrials
20.8x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-13%
Industrials
25.9x
-16%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+12%
PEG Ratio
0.90x
S&P 500
1.75x
-48%
Industrials
1.59x
-43%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-7%
Industrials
13.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
14.4x
-1%
Price/FCF
15.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-26%
Industrials
20.6x
-24%
5Y Avg
21.5x
-27%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Industrials
1.6x
+92%
5Y Avg
3.1x
-1%
Dividend Yield
1.12%
S&P 500
1.88%
-40%
Industrials
1.24%
-9%
5Y Avg
1.05%
+7%
| Metric | CSL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CSL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.8x | 19.1x | 20.8x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.8x | 25.2x-13% | 25.9x-16% | 19.5x+12% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.90x | 1.75x-48% | 1.59x-43% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.3x | 13.9x | 14.4x |
| Price/FCF | 15.7x | 21.3x-26% | 20.6x-24% | 21.5x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+92% | 3.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.12% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.05% |
CSL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCSL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CSL generates $925M in free cash flow at a 18.6% margin — 20.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 9.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$925M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.6%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
8.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
41M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCSL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Plasma Collection Risks
CSL's core business is heavily reliant on a consistent supply of plasma. A decrease in donor numbers due to economic conditions or health concerns could significantly impact supply, affecting revenue and operational stability.
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny
CSL faces substantial risks from regulatory reviews, such as the European Medicines Agency's evaluation of its treatment Tavneos. Delays or unfavorable outcomes in product approvals can severely restrict market access and revenue generation.
High Risk
Competition from Generics
The rise of generic products following patent expirations poses a significant threat to CSL's market share. Increased competition in the biotech sector, especially in immunoglobulin markets, could lead to reduced pricing power and profitability.
Medium
Manufacturing Issues
Problems in manufacturing, particularly within the CSL Behring division, can adversely affect profitability and investor confidence. Any disruptions in production could lead to delays in product availability and increased operational costs.
Medium
Market Demand Fluctuations
Weakening demand for specific products, such as albumin in China due to government cost-containment measures, can directly impact CSL's sales. Additionally, increased competition for iron deficiency products may further challenge revenue.
Medium
Macroeconomic Factors
Broader economic conditions, including global economic slowdowns and currency fluctuations, can influence CSL's performance. Changes in trade dynamics and interest rate cycles may also pose risks to financial stability.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
CSL is exposed to evolving cybersecurity threats that could compromise sensitive information. While the impact may be less immediate, breaches could lead to reputational damage and regulatory penalties.
Lower
Demerger Uncertainty
The deferral of a proposed demerger, such as that of Seqirus, introduces uncertainty regarding future earnings. This could affect investor sentiment and stock performance in the near term.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CSL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Demand for Essential Products
CSL is a global leader in plasma therapies and vaccines, providing critical treatments for chronic and rare diseases. These products are non-discretionary, meaning demand remains strong regardless of economic conditions, providing a defensive edge and a stable revenue base.
Diversified Business Segments
CSL operates through CSL Behring (plasma therapies), CSL Seqirus (vaccines), and CSL Vifor (kidney and iron deficiency treatments). This diversification reduces reliance on any single product or market.
Innovation and R&D Pipeline
The company continues to invest in research and development, with advancements in its pipeline for key products, including plasma, vaccines, and other therapies.
Operational Improvements and Cost Efficiencies
CSL is implementing a 'margin recovery blueprint' through a massive operational overhaul. This includes deploying new technology like the RA system to speed up plasma donation times and using custom software (Inomi) to personalize collections, aiming to drive down costs and improve profit margins.
Growth in Key Segments
The CSL Behring division has shown strong growth, particularly in its immunoglobulins franchise. The integration of CSL Vifor is also expected to contribute to future growth.
Resilient Financials
CSL has a strong balance sheet and cash flows, enabling reinvestment in the business and returns to shareholders. While reported net profit has been impacted by one-off costs, underlying performance and cash flow from operations remain strong.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CSL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$373.96
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$293.43
+27.4% from the low
52-Week High
$435.92
-14.2% from the high
1 Month
+12.79%
3 Month
-7.40%
YTD
+13.8%
1 Year
-3.0%
3Y CAGR
+20.8%
5Y CAGR
+14.2%
10Y CAGR
+13.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CSL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.8x
vs 20.0x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.1%
vs +2.9% median
-63% below peer median
Net Margin
14.6%
vs 8.9% median
+63% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSL CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | $15.3B | 17.8x | +1.1% | 14.6% | Buy | +9.3% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $7.1B | 20.0x | +10.6% | 18.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $8.1B | 26.9x | +3.3% | 8.9% | Hold | -2.0% |
OC OC Owens Corning | $9.9B | 13.1x | -2.8% | -5.4% | Hold | +14.8% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
SWK SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $12.6B | 17.8x | -0.8% | 2.4% | Hold | +10.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CSL Dividend and Capital Return
CSL returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (8.5% buyback yield), with a modest 1.12% dividend — combining for 9.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 37 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.5%
Dividend Yield
1.12%
Payout Ratio
24.4%
How CSL Splits Its Return
Buyback 8.5%
Dividend 1.12%Buybacks 8.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
37Y
3Y Div CAGR
17.6%
5Y Div CAGR
15.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
41M
At 8.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.20 | +13.5% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| 2024 | $3.70 | +15.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| 2023 | $3.20 | +24.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $2.58 | +21.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCSL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $409, implying +9.3% from the current price of $374. The bear case scenario is $239 and the bull case is $732.
02What is the CSL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CSL is $409 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $425 (+13.6% from today), and the low-end target is $360 (-3.7%). The base case model target is $499.
03Is Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) stock overvalued in 2026?
CSL trades at 17.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CSL in 2026 are: (1) Plasma Collection Risks — CSL's core business is heavily reliant on a consistent supply of plasma. (2) Regulatory Scrutiny — CSL faces substantial risks from regulatory reviews, such as the European Medicines Agency's evaluation of its treatment Tavneos. (3) Competition from Generics — The rise of generic products following patent expirations poses a significant threat to CSL's market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carlisle Companies Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CSL will report consensus revenue of $5.0B (+1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.50 (+16.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CSL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Carlisle Companies Incorporated generate?
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) generated $925M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.6%. CSL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).