Upside case
Bull case
$127-1.2%
The bull case prices OC at 13x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Owens Corning (OC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
43
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 43 covering OC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
26
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$141
+10.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$61 – $127
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
OC price targets
Three scenarios for where OC stock could go
Current
~$128
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $128
Bear
$61
Base
$96
Bull
$127
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$96-25.1%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$61-52.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push OC down roughly 53% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Owens Corning
OC · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Owens Corning is a global manufacturer of insulation, roofing, and fiberglass composite materials for building and construction applications. It generates revenue through three main segments—Insulation (~40% of sales), Roofing (~35%), and Composites (~25%)—selling products to contractors, builders, and industrial customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition, extensive distribution network, and technical expertise in materials science that creates high-performance building products.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$9.8B
Net Income TTM
-$533M
Net Margin
-5.4%
OC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.21/$3.82
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.67/$3.64
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.10/$1.36
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.01
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.21/$3.82 | +10.2% | $2.7B/$2.7B | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.67/$3.64 | +0.8% | $2.7B/$2.2B | +23.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.10/$1.36 | -19.1% | $2.1B/$2.2B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.22/$1.01 | +20.8% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.9B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$10.0B
+1.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.69
+125.5% YoY
FY2
$5.34
+215.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$480M
FCF Margin: 4.9%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.02
Expected Revenue
$2.6B
OC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
OC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Roofing
43.9%
+9.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.2%
+106.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Roofing is the largest disclosed segment at 43.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.2%, up 106.5% YoY.
OC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $185 — implies +44.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
44.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OC
-20.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
184% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
OC
-20.5x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
180% discount
vs OC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-20.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.7x
262% discount
Forward PE
13.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-28%
Industrials
21.2x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-20.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-184%
Industrials
25.6x
-180%
5Y Avg
12.7x
-262%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-55%
Industrials
13.9x
-50%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+11%
Price/FCF
10.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-48%
Industrials
20.0x
-46%
5Y Avg
9.6x
+12%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-67%
Industrials
1.6x
-35%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-10%
Dividend Yield
2.17%
S&P 500
1.91%
+13%
Industrials
1.21%
+79%
5Y Avg
1.61%
+35%
| Metric | OC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg OC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.5x | 18.8x-28% | 21.2x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | -20.5x | 24.4x-184% | 25.6x-180% | 12.7x-262% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9x | 15.2x-55% | 13.9x-50% | 6.2x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 10.7x | 20.7x-48% | 20.0x-46% | 9.6x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-67% | 1.6x-35% | 1.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.61% |
OC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
OC 12.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 10.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-5.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-6.65
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$480M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$353M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.1× FCF
~12.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-12.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.1%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
7.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$815M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.78
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
81M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cyclical demand risk
Exposure to cyclicality in construction markets could lead to volatile earnings.
High Risk
Supply overhang
Potential oversupply in insulation and roofing segments may pressure pricing and margins.
Medium
Cost inflation
Rising input costs could erode profitability if not passed through to customers.
Medium
Tariff impacts
Trade tariffs may increase material costs or disrupt supply chains.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
Future dividends depend on earnings, financial condition, and discretionary board decisions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Valuation gap opportunity
Owens Corning's 23% stock decline from its 52-week high presents a valuation gap, with Q1 2026 EPS and revenue exceeding expectations.
Potential share price upside
The company highlights significant upside potential if its valuation discount to the stock market narrows even slightly.
Bullish analyst thesis
A bullish thesis on Owens Corning suggests structural resilience and long-term growth potential, despite recent challenges.
Exceeded Q1 expectations
Q1 2026 results showed EPS of $1.22 and revenue of $2.27B, both surpassing expectations despite broader revenue declines.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$128.14
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$97.53
+31.4% from the low
52-Week High
$159.42
-19.6% from the high
1 Month
+14.21%
3 Month
+18.80%
YTD
+12.3%
1 Year
-1.9%
3Y CAGR
+0.9%
5Y CAGR
+6.2%
10Y CAGR
+9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.5x
vs 21.5x median
-37% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +7.2% median
-96% below peer median
Net Margin
-5.4%
vs 8.6% median
-163% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OC OC Owens Corning | $10.3B | 13.5x | +0.3% | -5.4% | Hold | +10.0% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $5.9B | 21.5x | +7.2% | 8.6% | Hold | +15.7% |
ROC ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | $1.2B | 10.8x | +3.5% | 0.7% | Buy | +34.5% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $6.7B | 19.0x | +7.5% | 18.6% | Buy | +25.1% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.9B | 28.1x | +5.1% | 16.3% | Hold | +2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OC Dividend and Capital Return
OC returns capital mainly through $815M/year in buybacks (7.9% buyback yield), with a modest 2.17% dividend — combining for 10.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
10.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.9%
Dividend Yield
2.17%
Payout Ratio
—
How OC Splits Its Return
Div 2.17%
Buyback 7.9%
Dividend 2.17%Buybacks 7.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.78
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
25.4%
5Y Div CAGR
23.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$815M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
81M
At 7.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.76 | +15.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | +15.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| 2023 | $2.08 | +48.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +34.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsOC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Owens Corning (OC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Owens Corning (OC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 26 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $141, implying +10.0% from the current price of $128. The bear case scenario is $61 and the bull case is $127.
02What is the OC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OC is $141 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $160 (+24.9% from today), and the low-end target is $125 (-2.5%). The base case model target is $96.
03Is Owens Corning (OC) stock overvalued in 2026?
OC trades at 13.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Owens Corning (OC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OC in 2026 are: (1) Cyclical demand risk — Exposure to cyclicality in construction markets could lead to volatile earnings. (2) Supply overhang — Potential oversupply in insulation and roofing segments may pressure pricing and margins. (3) Cost inflation — Rising input costs could erode profitability if not passed through to customers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Owens Corning's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OC will report consensus revenue of $9.9B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.69 (+125.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.0B in revenue.
06When does Owens Corning (OC) report its next earnings?
Owens Corning is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $3.02 and revenue of $2.6B. Over recent quarters, OC has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Owens Corning generate?
Owens Corning (OC) generated $480M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.9%. OC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($815M TTM).