Upside case
Bull case
$105+29.6%
SWK would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
37
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 37 covering SWK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
19
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$89
+10.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$25 – $105
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.6B
SWK price targets
Three scenarios for where SWK stock could go
Current
~$81
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $81
Bear
$25
Base
$91
Bull
$105
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+12.2%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$25-69.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push SWK down roughly 69% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
SWK · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesJanuary year-end
Stanley Black & Decker is a global manufacturer of tools, storage solutions, and industrial fastening systems. It generates revenue primarily from its Tools & Storage segment — which contributes roughly 80% of sales — and its Industrial segment, which makes up the remaining 20%. The company's competitive advantage lies in its powerful portfolio of iconic brands — including DeWalt, Stanley, and Black+Decker — and its extensive global distribution network.
Market Cap
$12.6B
Revenue TTM
$15.2B
Net Income TTM
$371M
Net Margin
2.4%
SWK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+32.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.08/$0.46
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.25
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.27
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.80/$0.61
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.08/$0.46 | +134.6% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.43/$1.25 | +14.4% | $3.8B/$3.8B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.41/$1.27 | +11.0% | $3.7B/$3.8B | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80/$0.61 | +31.1% | $3.8B/$3.7B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.1B
-0.8% YoY
FY2
$14.9B
-1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.04
+24.6% YoY
FY2
$2.97
-2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$726M
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SWK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SWK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
61.6%
-2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 61.6%, down 2.0% YoY.
SWK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $112 — implies +42.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
42.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SWK
30.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+21% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
SWK
30.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+18% premium
vs SWK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.6x
vs
5Y Average
25.0x
+22% premium
Forward PE
17.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-7%
Industrials
20.8x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+21%
Industrials
25.9x
+18%
5Y Avg
25.0x
+22%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-23%
Industrials
13.9x
-15%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-4%
Price/FCF
18.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-14%
Industrials
20.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
16.8x
+9%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Industrials
1.6x
-48%
5Y Avg
1.0x
-20%
Dividend Yield
4.06%
S&P 500
1.88%
+116%
Industrials
1.24%
+228%
5Y Avg
3.42%
+19%
| Metric | SWK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg SWK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.8x | 19.1x | 20.8x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.6x | 25.2x+21% | 25.9x+18% | 25.0x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8x | 15.3x-23% | 13.9x-15% | 12.3x |
| Price/FCF | 18.3x | 21.3x-14% | 20.6x-11% | 16.8x |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 1.6x-48% | 1.0x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.06% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 3.42% |
SWK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSWK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SWK returns 4.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$726M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$280M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.7× FCF
~7.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$15M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.29
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
124.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
155M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSWK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels
SWK carries a significant amount of debt, totaling US$6.10 billion, with net debt around US$5.81 billion. The company's liabilities exceed its cash and short-term receivables, creating a deficit greater than its market capitalization, which poses a risk of dilution of shareholder equity or bankruptcy.
High Risk
Negative Economic Conditions
The company is adversely affected by negative economic conditions, including labor and raw material shortages, inflation, high interest rates, and declining consumer confidence. These factors can significantly impact demand for SWK's products and its overall financial condition.
High Risk
Altman Z-Score
SWK has a low Altman Z-score of 2.04, indicating an increased risk of bankruptcy or financial distress. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial trouble, raising concerns for investors.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
SWK's dividend payout ratio is reported at 125.28%, which is significantly above the generally undesirable threshold of 75%. This high ratio raises concerns about the sustainability of its dividend growth without further debt or share dilution.
Medium
Foreign Currency Exchange Rates
As a global operator, SWK is exposed to risks from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. These fluctuations can negatively impact the company's profitability and financial results.
Medium
Potential Value Trap
Despite appearing attractively valued, SWK may represent a potential value trap due to underlying risks such as high debt levels and economic challenges. This could prevent the stock from reaching its intrinsic value.
Lower
Corporate Activity
SWK's strategies involving divestitures, acquisitions, and reorganizations may lead to financial outcomes that differ from expectations, introducing additional business risks.
Lower
Short Interest
An increase in short interest indicates a growing number of investors betting against SWK's stock, which could lead to short-term price volatility and increased market risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SWK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Cost Reductions and Margin Expansion
SWK is undergoing a multi-year supply chain transformation aimed at achieving substantial recurring cost reductions and improving operational flexibility. Management expects these initiatives to drive gross margins back to 35%+ by late 2026, leading to sustained improvements in net margins and earnings.
Strong Brands and Market Position
The company benefits from powerful brands, particularly DeWalt, which is a key driver of its ecosystem. Macro trends such as infrastructure spending, reshoring, and professional renovation demand are expected to stabilize cash flows.
Shareholder Returns
SWK has a history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company recently announced a $500 million share repurchase authorization and affirmed its quarterly dividend, marking its status as a 'Dividend King' with 58 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Recent Performance and Outlook
SWK reported strong Q1 2026 results, beating earnings expectations and showing positive revenue growth. The company has updated its 2026 guidance, expecting higher GAAP EPS, driven by disciplined execution and a focus on strategic priorities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SWK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$81.03
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.23
+39.2% from the low
52-Week High
$93.37
-13.2% from the high
1 Month
+19.20%
3 Month
-9.35%
YTD
+6.0%
1 Year
+37.4%
3Y CAGR
-1.3%
5Y CAGR
-17.9%
10Y CAGR
-3.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SWK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.8x
vs 18.8x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.8%
vs +5.7% median
-115% below peer median
Net Margin
2.4%
vs 14.2% median
-83% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWK SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $12.6B | 17.8x | -0.8% | 2.4% | Hold | +10.0% |
TTI TTI TETRA Technologies, Inc. | $1.3B | 41.8x | +5.7% | 1.2% | Buy | +24.2% |
SNA SNA Snap-on Incorporated | $20.1B | 20.2x | +0.6% | 20.0% | Buy | +6.9% |
KMT KMT Kennametal Inc. | $3.3B | 17.7x | -0.1% | 6.4% | Hold | -16.8% |
ALL ALLE Allegion plc | $11.6B | 15.4x | +7.1% | 15.2% | Hold | +27.5% |
MWA MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $4.2B | 18.8x | +6.5% | 14.2% | Hold | +22.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SWK Dividend and Capital Return
SWK returns 4.4% total yield, led by a 4.25% dividend, raised 28 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
4.25%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How SWK Splits Its Return
Div 4.25%
Dividend 4.25%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.29
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
28Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.2%
5Y Div CAGR
3.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$15M
Estimated Shares Retired
181.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
155M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.66 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.30 | +1.2% | 0.1% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $3.26 | +1.2% | 0.1% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $3.22 | +1.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $3.18 | +6.7% | 19.8% | 23.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsSWK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $89, implying +10.0% from the current price of $81. The bear case scenario is $25 and the bull case is $105.
02What is the SWK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SWK is $89 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+23.4% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+1.2%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) stock overvalued in 2026?
SWK trades at 17.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SWK in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels — SWK carries a significant amount of debt, totaling US$6. (2) Negative Economic Conditions — The company is adversely affected by negative economic conditions, including labor and raw material shortages, inflation, high interest rates, and declining consumer confidence. (3) Altman Z-Score — SWK has a low Altman Z-score of 2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SWK will report consensus revenue of $15.1B (-0.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.04 (+24.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.9B in revenue.
06When does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SWK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. generate?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) generated $726M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. SWK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.2% yield) and share repurchases ($15M TTM).