Upside case
Bull case
$172+57.2%
DECK would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
56
analysts
24 bullish · 6 bearish · 56 covering DECK
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
26
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$119
+8.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$82 – $172
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.2B
DECK price targets
Three scenarios for where DECK stock could go
Current
~$109
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $109
Bear
$82
Base
$130
Bull
$172
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$130+19.3%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$82-24.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DECK down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
DECK · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesMarch year-end
Deckers Outdoor is a footwear and apparel company that designs and markets premium casual lifestyle and performance brands like UGG, Hoka, and Teva. It generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to retailers (~60%) and direct-to-consumer sales via its own stores and e-commerce (~40%), with Hoka now driving most growth. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of strong, differentiated brands—particularly Hoka's cult-like following in performance running and UGG's enduring seasonal appeal—supported by disciplined brand management and direct consumer relationships.
Market Cap
$15.2B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
18.7%
DECK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.68
Revenue
$965M/$900M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.82/$1.58
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.33/$2.77
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.83
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.93/$0.68 | +36.2% | $965M/$900M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.82/$1.58 | +15.2% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.33/$2.77 | +20.2% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.96/$0.83 | +15.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.8B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$5.9B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.44
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$8.03
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 21.6%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.87
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
DECK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DECK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
UGG Wholesale Segment
50.0%
+113.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
58.3%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UGG Wholesale Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 113.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 58.3%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DECK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $238 — implies +118.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
118.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DECK
15.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
36% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DECK
15.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
27% discount
vs DECK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.8x
25% discount
Forward PE
15.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-27%
5Y Avg
20.8x
-25%
PEG Ratio
0.61x
S&P 500
1.66x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-34%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-32%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-15%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-30%
Price/FCF
13.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
29.2x
-53%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+298%
5Y Avg
3.5x
-21%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DECK | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.8x | 18.8x-16% | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.5x | 24.4x-36% | 21.2x-27% | 20.8x-25% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.61x | 1.66x-63% | 0.92x-34% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 15.2x-32% | 12.2x-15% | 14.7x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 13.8x | 20.7x-33% | 15.6x-11% | 29.2x-53% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-10% | 0.7x+298% | 3.5x-21% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
DECK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDECK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
DECK generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 21.6% margin — 100.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.24
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
100.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
7.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
139M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDECK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Deckers Outdoor had a disastrous 2025, raising concerns about its ability to bounce back in 2026.
High Risk
Stock Performance
The stock was significantly undervalued and torpedoed due to missed guidance and warnings.
Medium
Market Tension
The global footwear landscape is at a critical juncture, posing challenges for Deckers' growth.
Medium
Brand Dependency
Deckers' success heavily relies on HOKA and other brands, making it vulnerable to shifts in consumer preferences.
Lower
Competitive Landscape
Deckers operates in a highly competitive market, which could pressure margins and market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DECK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Brand Portfolio
Deckers' portfolio of brands combines style, comfort, and performance, with unique spirits that cater to diverse consumer needs.
Solid Financial Growth
Deckers has demonstrated solid financial growth, with strong trailing and forward P/E ratios indicating investor confidence.
Bullish Investor Sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight Deckers' potential, with analysts emphasizing its strong brand equity and growth prospects.
Global Brand Recognition
Deckers Brands has nurtured global icons since 1973, with a strong presence in both outdoor and urban markets.
Valuation and Moat
Deckers trades at a strong valuation with a notable moat, supported by its brand equity and market position.
UGG and HOKA Strength
The strong brand equity of UGG and HOKA is a key driver, contributing to Deckers' overall financial performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DECK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$109.11
52W Range Position
63%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$78.91
+38.3% from the low
52-Week High
$126.50
-13.7% from the high
1 Month
+15.33%
3 Month
+4.37%
YTD
+2.2%
1 Year
+8.0%
3Y CAGR
+8.8%
5Y CAGR
+15.0%
10Y CAGR
+27.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DECK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.8x
vs 20.8x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +0.7% median
+618% above peer median
Net Margin
18.7%
vs 2.9% median
+549% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DEC DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $15.2B | 15.8x | +5.2% | 18.7% | Hold | +8.8% |
CRO CROX Crocs, Inc. | $6.3B | 9.2x | +8.9% | -2.6% | Buy | -4.8% |
WWW WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | $1.4B | 13.2x | +0.7% | 5.4% | Hold | +20.7% |
SHO SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | $3.2B | 20.8x | +11.3% | 2.9% | Buy | -3.8% |
CAL CAL Caleres, Inc. | $443M | 24.8x | +0.7% | 0.0% | Buy | +115.0% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $53.8B | 30.3x | +0.1% | 5.4% | Buy | +41.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DECK Dividend and Capital Return
DECK returns 7.1% annually — null% through dividends and 7.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
7.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
139M
At 7.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDECK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 26 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $119, implying +8.8% from the current price of $109. The bear case scenario is $82 and the bull case is $172.
02What is the DECK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DECK is $119 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+32.9% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-17.5%). The base case model target is $130.
03Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock overvalued in 2026?
DECK trades at 15.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DECK in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — Deckers Outdoor had a disastrous 2025, raising concerns about its ability to bounce back in 2026. (2) Stock Performance — The stock was significantly undervalued and torpedoed due to missed guidance and warnings. (3) Market Tension — The global footwear landscape is at a critical juncture, posing challenges for Deckers' growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DECK will report consensus revenue of $5.8B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.44 (+2.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.9B in revenue.
06When does Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) report its next earnings?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.87 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, DECK has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Deckers Outdoor Corporation generate?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.6%. DECK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).