Upside case
Bull case
$176+69.1%
DECK would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
54
analysts
25 bullish · 6 bearish · 54 covering DECK
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
23
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$121
+16.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$11 – $176
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
54
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.8B
DECK price targets
Three scenarios for where DECK stock could go
Current
~$104
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $104
Bear
$11
Base
$142
Bull
$176
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$142+36.8%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$11-89.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push DECK down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
DECK · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesMarch year-end
Deckers Outdoor is a footwear and apparel company that designs and markets premium casual lifestyle and performance brands like UGG, Hoka, and Teva. It generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to retailers (~60%) and direct-to-consumer sales via its own stores and e-commerce (~40%), with Hoka now driving most growth. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of strong, differentiated brands—particularly Hoka's cult-like following in performance running and UGG's enduring seasonal appeal—supported by disciplined brand management and direct consumer relationships.
Market Cap
$14.8B
Revenue TTM
$5.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
19.3%
DECK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+22.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.60
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.68
Revenue
$965M/$900M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.82/$1.58
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.33/$2.77
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.00/$0.60 | +65.6% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.93/$0.68 | +36.2% | $965M/$900M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.82/$1.58 | +15.2% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.33/$2.77 | +20.2% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +4.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.8B
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$6.6B
+14.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.41
+4.9% YoY
FY2
$8.66
+16.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$929M
FCF Margin: 17.3%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.81
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
DECK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DECK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Direct-to-Consumer
42.7%
+14.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Direct-to-Consumer is the largest disclosed segment at 42.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.8% YoY.
DECK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $138 — implies +36.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DECK
16.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
35% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DECK
16.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
16% discount
vs DECK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.4x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
28% discount
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-21%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-16%
5Y Avg
22.9x
-28%
PEG Ratio
0.52x
S&P 500
1.75x
-70%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-46%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-31%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-7%
5Y Avg
15.9x
-33%
Price/FCF
15.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+3%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-48%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+317%
5Y Avg
3.7x
-20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DECK | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 19.1x-21% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.4x | 25.2x-35% | 19.6x-16% | 22.9x-28% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.52x | 1.75x-70% | 0.95x-46% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.6x | 15.3x-31% | 11.4x | 15.9x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 15.4x | 21.3x-28% | 15.0x | 29.9x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 0.7x+317% | 3.7x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
DECK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDECK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
DECK generates $929M in free cash flow at a 17.3% margin — 99.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.06
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$929M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
99.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
25.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$567M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
153M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDECK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Global supply chain complexities, geopolitical factors, and logistics challenges can interrupt product manufacturing and distribution. This may lead to increased product and transportation costs, significantly impacting profitability.
High Risk
Tariffs
Tariffs on goods manufactured overseas pose a significant headwind for DECK. The company may have to absorb these costs, which could lower profit margins, or pass them onto consumers, risking volume declines.
High Risk
Consumer Spending and Confidence
DECK's reliance on premium, discretionary retail products makes it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer confidence and spending. Economic downturns can adversely affect sales, leading to potential revenue declines.
Medium
HOKA Growth Sustainability
The company's growth is heavily reliant on the HOKA brand. Any slowdown in HOKA's growth rate or issues with brand visibility and customer satisfaction could significantly impact DECK's overall performance.
Medium
Inventory Management
A significant increase in inventory levels poses risks of markdowns to clear excess or out-of-style stock. This can lead to margin compression and negatively affect profitability.
Medium
Competition
DECK faces intense competition from established players like Nike and Adidas, as well as emerging brands such as On and Lululemon. Continuous product innovation and effective marketing strategies are essential to maintain market share.
Lower
Changing Consumer Preferences
Adapting to evolving fashion trends and consumer preferences is a constant challenge for DECK. The UGG brand, in particular, faces risks associated with changing fashion cycles.
Lower
Regulatory Environment
Legal and regulatory factors present ongoing risks for DECK. While not detailed, changes in regulations could impact operations and financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DECK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Brand Strength and Growth
Deckers' portfolio, particularly the Hoka and UGG brands, has demonstrated significant growth and resilience. Hoka has experienced tremendous growth, contributing to high full-price sell-through and profit margins, while UGG continues to show balanced growth across channels.
Strong Financial Performance
The company has reported strong revenue and earnings growth, with notable increases in diluted EPS. Deckers has maintained a healthy profitability and is debt-free, with its operating margin significantly improved in recent years.
Attractive Valuation Opportunities
Despite strong performance, the stock has experienced a significant decline from its highs, leading to a lower P/E ratio that some analysts find attractive. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analyses suggest the stock could be undervalued, indicating potential for significant upside.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant number of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy' for DECK stock, reflecting a generally positive outlook. Average price targets from analysts suggest a potential upside in the coming year.
Growth in Direct-to-Consumer Sales
The increasing contribution of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales to overall revenue is a strategic focus for growth and margin expansion. This shift is expected to enhance profitability as DTC channels typically offer higher margins.
Shareholder Returns Through Buybacks
Deckers has a history of aggressive share buyback programs, which can create shareholder value. These initiatives not only return capital to shareholders but also signal management's confidence in the company's future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DECK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$103.92
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$78.91
+31.7% from the low
52-Week High
$133.43
-22.1% from the high
1 Month
+2.24%
3 Month
-9.99%
YTD
-2.7%
1 Year
-11.2%
3Y CAGR
+8.0%
5Y CAGR
+12.9%
10Y CAGR
+27.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DECK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 19.1x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
vs +0.8% median
+826% above peer median
Net Margin
19.3%
vs 2.9% median
+570% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DEC DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $14.8B | 15.1x | +7.4% | 19.3% | Buy | +16.8% |
CRO CROX Crocs, Inc. | $5.3B | 7.9x | +4.0% | -2.6% | Buy | +1.1% |
WWW WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | $1.4B | 13.0x | +0.1% | 5.1% | Hold | +23.7% |
SHO SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | $2.9B | 19.1x | +10.2% | 2.9% | Buy | +7.9% |
CAL CAL Caleres, Inc. | $454M | 25.5x | +0.8% | -0.3% | Buy | +33.4% |
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $52.3B | 29.5x | -1.8% | 5.4% | Buy | +59.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DECK Dividend and Capital Return
DECK returns 4.0% annually — null% through dividends and 4.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$567M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
153M
At 3.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDECK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 54 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $121, implying +16.8% from the current price of $104. The bear case scenario is $11 and the bull case is $176.
02What is the DECK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DECK is $121 based on 54 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $161 (+54.9% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-13.4%). The base case model target is $142.
03Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock overvalued in 2026?
DECK trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DECK in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Disruptions — Global supply chain complexities, geopolitical factors, and logistics challenges can interrupt product manufacturing and distribution. (2) Tariffs — Tariffs on goods manufactured overseas pose a significant headwind for DECK. (3) Consumer Spending and Confidence — DECK's reliance on premium, discretionary retail products makes it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in consumer confidence and spending. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DECK will report consensus revenue of $5.8B (+7.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.41 (+4.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.6B in revenue.
06When does Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) report its next earnings?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, DECK has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Deckers Outdoor Corporation generate?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) generated $929M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.3%. DECK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($567M TTM).