Upside case
Bull case
$71+58.1%
NKE would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
71
analysts
37 bullish · 5 bearish · 71 covering NKE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
36
Hold
29
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$64
+41.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $71
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
71
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.8B
NKE price targets
Three scenarios for where NKE stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$34
Base
$54
Bull
$71
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$54+20.0%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-24.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push NKE down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NIKE, Inc.
NKE · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesMay year-end
Nike is a global athletic footwear and apparel company that designs, markets, and sells performance and lifestyle products. It generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to retailers (~60%) and direct-to-consumer sales through Nike-owned stores and digital channels (~40%), with footwear accounting for the majority of sales. The company's moat lies in its powerful brand—built through decades of athlete endorsements and marketing—and its extensive global distribution network.
Market Cap
$53.8B
Revenue TTM
$46.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
5.4%
NKE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.13
Revenue
$11.1B/$10.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.27
Revenue
$11.7B/$11.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.37
Revenue
$12.4B/$12.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.35/$0.29
Revenue
$11.3B/$11.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.14/$0.13 | +7.4% | $11.1B/$10.7B | +3.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.49/$0.27 | +80.1% | $11.7B/$11.0B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.53/$0.37 | +41.4% | $12.4B/$12.2B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.35/$0.29 | +20.4% | $11.3B/$11.2B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$46.6B
+0.1% YoY
FY2
$46.5B
-0.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.00
+17.1% YoY
FY2
$2.61
+30.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.5B
FCF Margin: 5.3%
Next Earnings
June 25, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.14
Expected Revenue
$10.8B
NKE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NKE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $46.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Footwear
66.9%
-12.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
43.8%
-8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Footwear is the largest disclosed segment at 66.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 12.1% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 43.8%, down 8.5% YoY.
NKE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $44 — implies -2.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NKE
20.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
14% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NKE
20.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
In line with benchmark
vs NKE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.9x
vs
5Y Average
31.2x
33% discount
Forward PE
30.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+61%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+85%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-1%
5Y Avg
31.2x
-33%
PEG Ratio
3.38x
S&P 500
1.66x
+104%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+266%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+4%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-48%
Price/FCF
16.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-20%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+6%
5Y Avg
32.7x
-50%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-62%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+67%
5Y Avg
3.4x
-66%
Dividend Yield
3.42%
S&P 500
1.91%
+79%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+57%
5Y Avg
1.39%
+145%
| Metric | NKE | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NKE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.3x | 18.8x+61% | 16.3x+85% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.9x | 24.4x-14% | 21.2x | 31.2x-33% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.38x | 1.66x+104% | 0.92x+266% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7x | 15.2x-16% | 12.2x | 24.3x-48% |
| Price/FCF | 16.5x | 20.7x-20% | 15.6x | 32.7x-50% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-62% | 0.7x+67% | 3.4x-66% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.39% |
NKE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNKE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NKE 16.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 9.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$46.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.0%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
5.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
71.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNKE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Full valuation
Nike's stock is considered fully valued, presenting downside risk despite its strong brand quality.
Medium
Demand stabilization
Upcoming earnings may reveal challenges in stabilizing demand, impacting medium-term recovery.
Medium
Margin expansion risks
Progress on margin expansion remains uncertain, posing risks to profitability.
Lower
Turnaround execution
The success of Nike's 'Win Now' strategy depends on effective execution, particularly in the running category and wholesale partnerships.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Innovation and market leadership face ongoing threats from competitors, potentially eroding market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NKE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Innovative product leadership
Nike continues to inspire athletes globally with cutting-edge products, experiences, and services, reinforcing its market leadership.
Strong brand infrastructure
The durability of Nike's brand and balance sheet resilience underpin the investment case, independent of short-term fashion cycles.
Cultural integration
Nike's deep cultural relevance and integration enhance its brand strength and customer loyalty.
Leadership stability
The return of Elliott Hill to leadership is seen as a positive catalyst for operational execution.
Global market presence
Nike's robust global footprint continues to drive growth and stock appreciation.
Operating leverage potential
Upside optionality exists from improved operating leverage and execution efficiency.
Digital and social engagement
Nike's massive following on platforms like Instagram (292M followers) underscores its strong digital and social media presence.
Recovery potential
Subdued market sentiment presents a recovery opportunity as Nike's fundamentals remain strong.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NKE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.20
52W Range Position
10%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.35
+9.3% from the low
52-Week High
$80.17
-43.6% from the high
1 Month
+6.18%
3 Month
-15.47%
YTD
-28.6%
1 Year
-24.0%
3Y CAGR
-25.6%
5Y CAGR
-18.8%
10Y CAGR
-1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NKE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.3x
vs 21.0x median
+44% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.1%
vs +3.3% median
-96% below peer median
Net Margin
5.4%
vs 2.7% median
+104% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NKE NKE NIKE, Inc. | $53.8B | 30.3x | +0.1% | 5.4% | Buy | +41.9% |
UAA UAA Under Armour, Inc. | $2.6B | 51.7x | +2.5% | -9.9% | Hold | +7.3% |
ONO ONON On Holding AG | $13.0B | 27.7x | +13.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +39.8% |
DEC DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $15.2B | 15.8x | +5.2% | 18.7% | Hold | +8.8% |
VFC VFC V.F. Corporation | $6.8B | 21.0x | -0.4% | 2.7% | Hold | +18.3% |
PVH PVH PVH Corp. | $3.6B | 7.1x | +3.3% | 0.2% | Buy | +19.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NKE Dividend and Capital Return
NKE returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (5.5% buyback yield), with a modest 3.42% dividend — combining for 9.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 24 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
9.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.5%
Dividend Yield
3.42%
Payout Ratio
71.5%
How NKE Splits Its Return
Div 3.42%
Buyback 5.5%
Dividend 3.42%Buybacks 5.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
24Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
9.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
66M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 5.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.82 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.61 | +6.6% | 3.3% | 5.9% |
| 2024 | $1.51 | +8.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 2023 | $1.39 | +10.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.26 | +11.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNKE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 71 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 29 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $64, implying +41.9% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $71.
02What is the NKE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NKE is $64 based on 71 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+143.4% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-22.6%). The base case model target is $54.
03Is NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock overvalued in 2026?
NKE trades at 30.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NKE in 2026 are: (1) Full valuation — Nike's stock is considered fully valued, presenting downside risk despite its strong brand quality. (2) Demand stabilization — Upcoming earnings may reveal challenges in stabilizing demand, impacting medium-term recovery. (3) Margin expansion risks — Progress on margin expansion remains uncertain, posing risks to profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NIKE, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NKE will report consensus revenue of $46.6B (+0.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.00 (+17.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.5B in revenue.
06When does NIKE, Inc. (NKE) report its next earnings?
NIKE, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-25. Consensus expects EPS of $0.14 and revenue of $10.8B. Over recent quarters, NKE has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NIKE, Inc. generate?
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) generated $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.3%. NKE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).