Upside case
Bull case
$187-6.6%
The bull case prices EGP at 32x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering EGP
Strong Buy
1
Buy
15
Hold
17
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$214
+6.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$89 – $187
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
EGP price targets
Three scenarios for where EGP stock could go
Current
~$200
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $200
Bear
$89
Base
$142
Bull
$187
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$142-29.1%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$89-55.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push EGP down roughly 55% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
EastGroup Properties, Inc.
EGP · NYSEReal EstateREIT - IndustrialDecember year-end
EastGroup Properties is a real estate investment trust that develops, acquires, and operates industrial properties—primarily distribution facilities—in major Sunbelt markets across the United States. It generates revenue through rental income from its industrial portfolio, with its entire business model focused on leasing functional business distribution space to location-sensitive customers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategic ownership of premier distribution facilities clustered near major transportation features in supply-constrained submarkets, creating a durable portfolio moat.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$737M
Net Income TTM
$293M
Net Margin
39.7%
EGP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.20
Revenue
$177M/$180M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.27/$2.28
Revenue
$182M/$185M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.34/$2.33
Revenue
$187M/$185M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.34/$1.22
Revenue
$190M/$191M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.21/$2.20 | +0.5% | $177M/$180M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.27/$2.28 | -0.4% | $182M/$185M | -1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.34/$2.33 | +0.4% | $187M/$185M | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.34/$1.22 | +91.8% | $190M/$191M | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$805M
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$864M
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.21
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$8.86
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$418M
FCF Margin: 56.7%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.32
Expected Revenue
$193M
EGP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
EGP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $118 — implies -40.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
40.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EGP
41.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+68% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
EGP
41.1x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+70% premium
vs EGP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.1x
vs
5Y Average
41.0x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
34.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+81%
Real Estate
25.1x
+36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+68%
Real Estate
24.1x
+70%
5Y Avg
41.0x
+0%
PEG Ratio
3.41x
S&P 500
1.66x
+106%
Real Estate
1.34x
+154%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+63%
Real Estate
17.0x
+46%
5Y Avg
20.3x
+22%
Price/FCF
26.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+28%
Real Estate
15.4x
+72%
5Y Avg
27.8x
-5%
Price/Sales
14.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+382%
Real Estate
3.0x
+395%
5Y Avg
15.1x
-1%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
S&P 500
1.91%
+48%
Real Estate
4.62%
-39%
5Y Avg
2.72%
+4%
| Metric | EGP | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg EGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.1x | 18.8x+81% | 25.1x+36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.1x | 24.4x+68% | 24.1x+70% | 41.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.41x | 1.66x+106% | 1.34x+154% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.8x | 15.2x+63% | 17.0x+46% | 20.3x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 26.5x | 20.7x+28% | 15.4x+72% | 27.8x |
| Price/Sales | 14.9x | 3.1x+382% | 3.0x+395% | 15.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.83% | 1.91% | 4.62% | 2.72% |
EGP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEGP Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
EGP pays 2.8% total shareholder yield with 40.3% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$737M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
40.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
39.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.46
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
40.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
4.2× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
117.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
54M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageEGP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Development Risks
EGP's significant development pipeline carries inherent risks such as cost overruns, construction delays, and slower-than-expected leasing. These factors could negatively impact initial yields and future growth outlook.
High Risk
Market and Economic Conditions
Rising industrial supply could lead to higher vacancy rates and weaker rent growth, particularly if economic activity contracts. Additionally, factors like inflation and geopolitical conflicts can adversely affect leasing, revenue, and profitability.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising interest rates can increase EGP's interest expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins and affecting its ability to service debt. This sensitivity poses a significant risk to the company's financial stability.
Medium
Competitive Market Environment
The industrial real estate market is highly competitive, requiring EGP to continuously innovate and offer competitive lease terms. Failure to do so could result in reduced occupancy and rental income.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
EGP's current valuation may be considered high relative to industry averages, suggesting potential overvaluation. This could lead to a risk of price correction if market sentiment shifts.
Lower
Operational Risks
General operational risks inherent in managing a large real estate portfolio are always present. While not explicitly detailed, these risks can impact overall performance.
Lower
Potential Equity Issuance
A heavy development pipeline might necessitate equity issuance, which could dilute per-share metrics. This dilution poses a risk to existing shareholders.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EGP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Market Focus
EastGroup Properties specializes in the development, acquisition, and operation of industrial properties in high-growth U.S. markets, particularly in Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, and North Carolina. This focus on the Sunbelt region benefits from structural U.S. population growth and migration, driving demand for modern industrial and logistics properties.
Robust Demand and Leasing
The company is experiencing strong demand for its industrial spaces, evidenced by a significant increase in the pre-leased percentage for its development projects. Occupancy rates for the operating portfolio have averaged 96.1% in Q1 2026, showing a year-over-year increase.
Financial Strength and Growth
EastGroup Properties has demonstrated consistent FFO (Funds From Operations) growth, with an 8.5% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026. The company has also increased its FFO per share guidance for 2026, indicating strong financial performance.
Development Pipeline
The company has a substantial pipeline of development projects, including a lease-up portfolio valued at $266 million and an in-process portfolio of $234 million, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth. Projected stabilized yields for recently completed development projects are in the 7-7.5% range.
Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts covering EGP have a positive rating, with a consensus of 'Buy.' Some analysts have raised their price targets for the stock, indicating confidence in its future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EGP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$199.97
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$159.37
+25.5% from the low
52-Week High
$207.72
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
-1.08%
3 Month
+6.28%
YTD
+11.2%
1 Year
+17.0%
3Y CAGR
+5.0%
5Y CAGR
+4.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EGP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.1x
vs 33.8x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +7.9% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
39.7%
vs 28.3% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EGP EGP EastGroup Properties, Inc. | $10.7B | 34.1x | +9.1% | 39.7% | Hold | +6.9% |
FR FR First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $8.2B | 25.8x | +7.9% | 46.0% | Buy | +9.6% |
REX REXR Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $7.9B | 26.5x | +7.8% | 21.3% | Hold | +11.7% |
STA STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | $7.2B | 33.8x | +9.5% | 28.3% | Buy | +8.5% |
LXP LXP LXP Industrial Trust | $3.1B | 625.6x | +2.4% | 27.0% | Buy | +1.5% |
TRN TRNO Terreno Realty Corporation | $6.8B | 37.2x | +8.9% | 86.5% | Buy | +9.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EGP Dividend and Capital Return
EGP returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 2.83% dividend, raised 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.83%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How EGP Splits Its Return
Div 2.83%
Dividend 2.83%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.9%
5Y Div CAGR
13.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
54M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.90 | +10.5% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $5.34 | +6.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $5.04 | +7.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $4.70 | +31.3% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsEGP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $214, implying +6.9% from the current price of $200. The bear case scenario is $89 and the bull case is $187.
02What is the EGP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EGP is $214 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $241 (+20.5% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (-7.5%). The base case model target is $142.
03Is EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) stock overvalued in 2026?
EGP trades at 34.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EGP in 2026 are: (1) Development Risks — EGP's significant development pipeline carries inherent risks such as cost overruns, construction delays, and slower-than-expected leasing. (2) Market and Economic Conditions — Rising industrial supply could lead to higher vacancy rates and weaker rent growth, particularly if economic activity contracts. (3) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Rising interest rates can increase EGP's interest expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins and affecting its ability to service debt. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is EastGroup Properties, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EGP will report consensus revenue of $805M (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.21 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $864M in revenue.
06When does EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) report its next earnings?
EastGroup Properties, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $1.32 and revenue of $193M. Over recent quarters, EGP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does EastGroup Properties, Inc. generate?
EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) generated $418M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 56.7%. EGP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).