ERO trades 9.1% below Wall Street's consensus target of $31.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ERO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 7.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $31.50, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $28.86, this represents a potential upside of +9.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.01B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $31.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a 3% spread in expectations. The median target of $31.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, ERO trades at a trailing P/E of 7.8x and forward P/E of 7.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +9.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $41.39, with bear and bull scenarios of $26.08 and $54.54 respectively. Model confidence stands at 51/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $142.7B | $167.27 | $169.60 | +1.4% | Hold | 21.3x | 29 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $85.4B | $59.42 | $74.00 | +24.5% | Buy | 18.8x | 41 |
 TECKTeck Resources Limited | $29.2B | $60.46 | $68.00 | +12.5% | Buy | 8.9x | 27 |
 HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | $9.3B | $20.91 | $32.00 | +53.0% | Buy | 13.7x | 20 |
 RIORio Tinto Group | $136.1B | $83.73 | $97.50 | +16.4% | Hold | 10.2x | 31 |
 BHPBHP Group Limited | $202.9B | $79.89 | $53.67 | -32.8% | Hold | 16.1x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $49.4B | $11.59 | $15.50 | +33.7% | Hold | 7.2x | 37 |
 SBSWSibanye Stillwater Limited | $7.6B | $9.50 | $14.25 | +50.0% | Buy | 0.3x | 14 |
 CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | $15.9B | $15.47 | $21.50 | +39.0% | Buy | 16.1x | 21 |
 CATCaterpillar Inc. | $257.3B | $558.63 | $935.36 | +67.4% | Buy | 20.4x | 57 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ERO stock.
The consensus price target for ERO is $31.5, close to the current price of $28.86 (9.1% implied move). Based on 4 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
ERO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 2 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $31.5 implies 9.1% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 7.1704x, ERO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $31.5 implies 9.1% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $32 for ERO, while the most conservative target is $31. The consensus of $31.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $55 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ERO is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ERO stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $31.5, with estimates ranging from $31 (bear case) to $32 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $41, with bear/bull scenarios of $26/$55.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ERO's fair value at $41 (base case), with a bear case of $26 and bull case of $55. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 51/100.
ERO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 7.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
ERO appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $31.5 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ERO analyst price targets range from $31 to $32, a 3% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $31.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $26-$55 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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