ERO trades 15.0% above Wall Street's consensus target of $31.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ERO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 9.1x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $31.00, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $36.48, this represents a potential downside of -15.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.80B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $31.00 to a high of $31.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $31.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, ERO trades at a trailing P/E of 14.1x and forward P/E of 9.1x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.26 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +35.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $38.31, with bear and bull scenarios of $24.13 and $50.47 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $168.5B | $201.94 | $162.33 | -19.6% | Hold | 26.3x | 29 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $104.3B | $72.58 | $71.36 | -1.7% | Buy | 24.5x | 41 |
 TECKTeck Resources Limited | $32.3B | $66.80 | $68.00 | +1.8% | Buy | 11.0x | 26 |
 HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | $11.9B | $26.79 | $32.00 | +19.4% | Buy | 17.6x | 20 |
 RIORio Tinto Group | $154.8B | $95.25 | $103.13 | +8.3% | Hold | 11.4x | 31 |
 BHPBHP Group Limited | $215.8B | $84.95 | $95.00 | +11.8% | Hold | 17.4x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $58.9B | $13.82 | $16.36 | +18.4% | Hold | 7.7x | 37 |
 SBSWSibanye Stillwater Limited | $8.5B | $10.55 | $14.25 | +35.1% | Buy | 0.3x | 14 |
 NGDNew Gold Inc. | $7.2B | $9.08 | $8.91 | -1.9% | Buy | 6.6x | 18 |
 CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | $19.9B | $19.32 | $21.50 | +11.3% | Buy | 17.8x | 21 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ERO stock.
ERO's consensus price target is $31, -15.0% below the current price of $36.48. The 4 analysts tracking ERO see downside risk at present valuations.
ERO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 2 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $31 implies -15.0% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 9.1458x, ERO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $31 implies -15.0% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $31 for ERO, while the most conservative target is $31. The consensus of $31 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $50 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ERO is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ERO stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $31, with estimates ranging from $31 (bear case) to $31 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $38, with bear/bull scenarios of $24/$50.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ERO's fair value at $38 (base case), with a bear case of $24 and bull case of $50. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
ERO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.1x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on ERO, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $31 (-15.0% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ERO analyst price targets range from $31 to $31, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $31 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $24-$50 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.