BHP trades 11.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $95.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes BHP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 17.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 31 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, BHP Group Limited (BHP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $95.00, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $84.95, this represents a potential upside of +11.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $215.80B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $95.00 to a high of $95.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $95.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 7 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,20 rating it Hold, and 4 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, BHP trades at a trailing P/E of 23.9x and forward P/E of 17.4x. The forward PEG ratio of 6.18 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -34.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $128.00, with bear and bull scenarios of $80.64 and $168.66 respectively. Model confidence stands at 40/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RIORio Tinto Group | $154.8B | $95.25 | $103.13 | +8.3% | Hold | 11.4x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $58.9B | $13.82 | $16.36 | +18.4% | Hold | 7.7x | 37 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $104.3B | $72.58 | $71.36 | -1.7% | Buy | 24.5x | 41 |
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $168.5B | $201.94 | $162.33 | -19.6% | Hold | 26.3x | 29 |
 CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $7.3B | $12.87 | $11.66 | -9.4% | Hold | — | 44 |
 AAAlcoa Corporation | $11.6B | $44.06 | $63.50 | +44.1% | Buy | 6.7x | 42 |
 NEMNewmont Corporation | $130.2B | $123.55 | $136.83 | +10.7% | Buy | 13.1x | 37 |
 AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | $99.0B | $195.57 | $218.83 | +11.9% | Buy | 16.4x | 31 |
 CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374.0B | $812.02 | $985.58 | +21.4% | Buy | 29.8x | 56 |
 CMICummins Inc. | $72.4B | $524.65 | $787.50 | +50.1% | Buy | 17.8x | 51 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying BHP stock.
BHP Group Limited (BHP) has a consensus 12-month price target of $95, implying 11.8% upside from $84.95. The 31 analysts covering BHP see moderate appreciation potential.
BHP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 20 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $95 implies 11.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 17.353x, BHP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $95 implies 11.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $95 for BHP, while the most conservative target is $95. The consensus of $95 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $169 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
BHP is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 7 have Buy ratings, 20 recommend Hold, and 4 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month BHP stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $95, with estimates ranging from $95 (bear case) to $95 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $128, with bear/bull scenarios of $81/$169.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates BHP's fair value at $128 (base case), with a bear case of $81 and bull case of $169. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 40/100.
BHP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 23.9x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on BHP, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $95 price target (11.8% upside). 7 of 31 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BHP analyst price targets range from $95 to $95, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $95 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $81-$169 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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