BHP Group Limited (BHP) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$82.55
Price Target
$71.50
Target Range
$48.00 — $95.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E16.3x
Trailing P/E23.2x
Forward PEG5.82
Implied Growth-40.5%
Median Target$71.50
Analyst Spread65.7%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$48
-41.9%
Consensus
$72
-13.4%
Bull Case
$95
+15.1%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 35/100
Bear$51
Base$166
Bull$449
BHP Price Target Analysis
Updated May 7, 2026As of May 7, 2026, BHP Group Limited (BHP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $71.50, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $82.55, this represents a potential downside of -13.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $209.60B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $48.00 to a high of $95.00, representing a 66% spread in expectations. The median target of $71.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 7 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,19 rating it Hold, and 5 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, BHP trades at a trailing P/E of 23.2x and forward P/E of 16.3x. The forward PEG ratio of 5.82 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -40.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $165.53, with bear and bull scenarios of $51.13 and $449.47 respectively. Model confidence stands at 35/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Basic Materials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+4.4%
Avg Forward P/E18.5x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RIORio Tinto Group | $205.8B | $103.10 | $101.75 | -1.3% | Hold | 12.6x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $70.7B | $16.19 | $16.65 | +2.8% | Hold | 8.1x | 37 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $87.1B | $60.61 | $67.00 | +10.5% | Buy | 22.4x | 41 |
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $148.3B | $179.54 | $156.40 | -12.9% | Hold | 25.4x | 30 |
 CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | $10.65 | $11.11 | +4.3% | Hold | — | 43 |
 AAAlcoa Corporation | $16.2B | $62.63 | $68.80 | +9.9% | Buy | 9.0x | 42 |
 NEMNewmont Corporation | $125.7B | $113.47 | $137.50 | +21.2% | Buy | 10.9x | 36 |
 AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | $94.0B | $187.69 | $237.71 | +26.6% | Buy | 13.5x | 31 |
 CATCaterpillar Inc. | $416.8B | $895.69 | $824.80 | -7.9% | Buy | 38.8x | 53 |
 CMICummins Inc. | $94.3B | $682.42 | $621.10 | -9.0% | Buy | 25.9x | 51 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonBHP — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying BHP stock.
What is the BHP stock price target for 2026?
BHP's consensus price target is $71.5, -13.4% below the current price of $82.55. The 31 analysts tracking BHP see downside risk at present valuations.
Is BHP a buy, sell, or hold?
BHP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 19 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $71.5 implies -13.4% downside from current levels.
Is BHP stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 16.3236x, BHP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $71.5 implies -13.4% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can BHP stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $95 for BHP, while the most conservative target is $48. The consensus of $71.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $449 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover BHP stock?
BHP is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 7 have Buy ratings, 19 recommend Hold, and 5 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the BHP stock forecast?
The 12-month BHP stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $71.5, with estimates ranging from $48 (bear case) to $95 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $166, with bear/bull scenarios of $51/$449.
What is BHP's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates BHP's fair value at $166 (base case), with a bear case of $51 and bull case of $449. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 35/100.
What is BHP's forward P/E ratio?
BHP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 23.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy BHP stock?
Analysts are cautious on BHP, with 5 Sell ratings and a price target of $71.5 (-13.4% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do BHP price targets vary so much?
BHP analyst price targets range from $48 to $95, a 66% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $71.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $51-$449 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.