RIO trades 16.4% below Wall Street's consensus target of $97.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes RIO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 10.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 31 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $97.50, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $83.73, this represents a potential upside of +16.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $136.06B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $89.50 to a high of $113.00, representing a 24% spread in expectations. The median target of $90.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 11 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,13 rating it Hold, and 7 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, RIO trades at a trailing P/E of 13.7x and forward P/E of 10.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 30.75 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -39.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $164.82, with bear and bull scenarios of $103.84 and $217.17 respectively. Model confidence stands at 43/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BHPBHP Group Limited | $202.9B | $79.89 | $53.67 | -32.8% | Hold | 16.1x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $49.4B | $11.59 | $15.50 | +33.7% | Hold | 7.2x | 37 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $85.4B | $59.42 | $74.00 | +24.5% | Buy | 18.8x | 41 |
 AAAlcoa Corporation | $10.4B | $39.54 | $60.43 | +52.8% | Buy | 5.7x | 42 |
 NEMNewmont Corporation | $127.4B | $120.91 | $135.56 | +12.1% | Buy | 13.0x | 37 |
 CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.5B | $11.46 | $14.00 | +22.2% | Hold | 285.1x | 44 |
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $142.7B | $167.27 | $169.60 | +1.4% | Hold | 21.3x | 29 |
 CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $3.3B | $33.47 | $58.00 | +73.3% | Hold | 3.3x | 23 |
 CATCaterpillar Inc. | $257.3B | $558.63 | $935.36 | +67.4% | Buy | 20.4x | 57 |
 CMICummins Inc. | $62.1B | $450.07 | $741.14 | +64.7% | Buy | 15.3x | 51 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying RIO stock.
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a consensus 12-month price target of $97.5, implying 16.4% upside from $83.73. The 31 analysts covering RIO see moderate appreciation potential.
RIO has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 13 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $97.5 implies 16.4% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 10.1819x, RIO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $97.5 implies 16.4% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $113 for RIO, while the most conservative target is $89.5. The consensus of $97.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $217 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
RIO is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 11 have Buy ratings, 13 recommend Hold, and 7 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month RIO stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $97.5, with estimates ranging from $89.5 (bear case) to $113 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $165, with bear/bull scenarios of $104/$217.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates RIO's fair value at $165 (base case), with a bear case of $104 and bull case of $217. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.
RIO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.7x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on RIO, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $97.5 price target (16.4% upside). 11 of 31 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
RIO analyst price targets range from $89.5 to $113, a 24% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $97.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $104-$217 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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