Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Price Target Analysis

Updated Jun 18, 2026

Analyst Rating: Hold

Based on 31 analysts

1.7% Below Target

RIO trades 1.7% below Wall Street's consensus target of $101.75.

Current Price$100.08

Average Target$101.75

Target

Current

Low$83.50

Median$101.75

High$120.00

Analyst Target Range

Forward P/E11.7x

(Value)

PEG Ratio1.52

(Fair)

Implied Growth-33.3%

(Declining)

Analyst Spread35.9%

(Moderate)

Price Forecast (1 Year)

Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path

Current$100.08

Consensus$101.75

High$120.00

Low$83.50

Consensus Scenario Assumptions

The base valuation assumes RIO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 31 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.

Analyst Ratings Distribution

Breakdown of 31 published analyst recommendations for RIO

42% hold / mixed conviction

BearishBullish

Weighted analyst sentiment score based on 31 ratings

ConsensusHold

Coverage31 Analysts

Net Score+10

Bull / Bear39% / 19%

Strong Buy00%

Buy1239%

Hold1342%

Sell619%

Strong Sell00%

Strong Buy

00%

Buy

1239%

Hold

1342%

Sell

619%

Strong Sell

00%

Recommendation Mix39% Buy · 42% Hold · 19% Sell

Buy (12)Hold (13)Sell (6)

RIO Price Target Analysis

Updated June 21, 2026

As of June 21, 2026, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $101.75, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $100.08, this represents a potential upside of +1.7%. The company has a market capitalization of $199.77B.

Analyst price targets range from a low of $83.50 to a high of $120.00, representing a 36% spread in expectations. The median target of $101.75 aligns closely with the consensus average.

The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 12 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,13 rating it Hold, and 6 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.

From a valuation perspective, RIO trades at a trailing P/E of 14.2x and forward P/E of 11.7x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.52 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -33.3% over the next year.

Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $145.65, with bear and bull scenarios of $91.76 and $191.91 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.

Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Basic Materials stocks.

Analyst Sentiment Comparison

Industry Peer Analysis

Avg Peer Upside

+8.8%

Industry Consensus

Avg Forward P/E

18.1x

(Fair)

Peers with Coverage

10 / 10

Active Analyst Tracking

Company	Market Cap	Price	Target	Upside Potential	Rating	Fwd P/E	Analysts
BHPBHP Group Limited	$223.1B	$87.87	$71.50	-18.6%	Hold	17.0x	31
VALEVale S.A.	$67.3B	$15.42	$17.79	+15.4%	Hold	7.6x	37
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.	$98.7B	$68.67	$71.44	+4.0%	Buy	25.4x	41
AAAlcoa Corporation	$15.4B	$59.33	$75.40	+27.1%	Buy	7.6x	42
NEMNewmont Corporation	$115.0B	$103.79	$143.33	+38.1%	Buy	10.1x	36
CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.	$7.0B	$12.28	$12.17	-0.9%	Hold	—	43
SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation	$159.4B	$192.93	$157.00	-18.6%	Hold	26.0x	29
CENXCentury Aluminum Company	$5.1B	$51.71	$76.00	+47.0%	Hold	4.5x	22
CATCaterpillar Inc.	$458.7B	$985.82	$882.20	-10.5%	Buy	40.0x	53
CMICummins Inc.	$99.0B	$716.86	$750.09	+4.6%	Buy	24.7x	51

RIO — Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers to the most common questions about buying RIO stock.

What is the RIO stock price target for 2026?

The consensus price target for RIO is $101.75, close to the current price of $100.08 (1.7% implied move). Based on 31 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.

Is RIO a buy, sell, or hold?

RIO has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 13 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $101.75 implies 1.7% upside from current levels.

Is RIO stock overvalued or undervalued?

With a forward P/E of 11.7127x, RIO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $101.75 implies 1.7% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.

How high can RIO stock go?

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $120 for RIO, while the most conservative target is $83.5. The consensus of $101.75 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $192 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

How many analysts cover RIO stock?

RIO is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 13 recommend Hold, and 6 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

What is the RIO stock forecast?

The 12-month RIO stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $101.75, with estimates ranging from $83.5 (bear case) to $120 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $146, with bear/bull scenarios of $92/$192.

What is RIO's fair value based on fundamentals?

Our quantitative valuation model calculates RIO's fair value at $146 (base case), with a bear case of $92 and bull case of $192. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.

What is RIO's forward P/E ratio?

RIO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Should I buy RIO stock?

RIO appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $101.75 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Why do RIO price targets vary so much?

RIO analyst price targets range from $83.5 to $120, a 36% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $101.75 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $92-$192 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.

Consensus-Based Analysis Tools