Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$100.50
Price Target
$101.75
Target Range
$83.50 — $120.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E12.3x
Trailing P/E14.2x
Forward PEG1.60
Implied Growth-36.1%
Median Target$101.75
Analyst Spread35.9%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$84
-16.9%
Consensus
$102
+1.2%
Bull Case
$120
+19.4%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 38/100
Bear$109
Base$175
Bull$433
RIO Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $101.75, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $100.50, this represents a potential upside of +1.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $200.61B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $83.50 to a high of $120.00, representing a 36% spread in expectations. The median target of $101.75 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 12 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,13 rating it Hold, and 6 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, RIO trades at a trailing P/E of 14.2x and forward P/E of 12.3x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.60 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -36.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $175.15, with bear and bull scenarios of $108.78 and $433.17 respectively. Model confidence stands at 38/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Basic Materials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+4.7%
Avg Forward P/E17.7x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BHPBHP Group Limited | $201.2B | $79.24 | $71.50 | -9.8% | Hold | 15.7x | 31 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $69.5B | $15.93 | $16.65 | +4.5% | Hold | 8.0x | 37 |
 FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $82.9B | $57.70 | $67.00 | +16.1% | Buy | 21.3x | 41 |
 AAAlcoa Corporation | $16.3B | $63.07 | $68.80 | +9.1% | Buy | 9.0x | 42 |
 NEMNewmont Corporation | $120.8B | $109.01 | $137.50 | +26.1% | Buy | 10.5x | 36 |
 CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | $10.65 | $11.11 | +4.3% | Hold | — | 43 |
 SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $141.3B | $171.03 | $156.40 | -8.6% | Hold | 24.2x | 30 |
 CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $5.8B | $62.28 | $76.00 | +22.0% | Hold | 6.0x | 22 |
 CATCaterpillar Inc. | $420.9B | $904.59 | $824.80 | -8.8% | Buy | 39.2x | 53 |
 CMICummins Inc. | $93.3B | $675.00 | $621.10 | -8.0% | Buy | 25.6x | 51 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonRIO — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying RIO stock.
What is the RIO stock price target for 2026?
The consensus price target for RIO is $101.75, close to the current price of $100.5 (1.2% implied move). Based on 31 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
Is RIO a buy, sell, or hold?
RIO has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 13 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $101.75 implies 1.2% upside from current levels.
Is RIO stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 12.2834x, RIO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $101.75 implies 1.2% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can RIO stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $120 for RIO, while the most conservative target is $83.5. The consensus of $101.75 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $433 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover RIO stock?
RIO is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 13 recommend Hold, and 6 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the RIO stock forecast?
The 12-month RIO stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $101.75, with estimates ranging from $83.5 (bear case) to $120 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $175, with bear/bull scenarios of $109/$433.
What is RIO's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates RIO's fair value at $175 (base case), with a bear case of $109 and bull case of $433. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 38/100.
What is RIO's forward P/E ratio?
RIO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 14.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy RIO stock?
RIO appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $101.75 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do RIO price targets vary so much?
RIO analyst price targets range from $83.5 to $120, a 36% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $101.75 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $109-$433 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.