Upside case
Bull case
$506+115.9%
FIVE would need investors to value it at roughly 79x earnings — about 43x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 50 covering FIVE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
20
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$219
-6.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$191 – $506
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
36.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.9B
FIVE price targets
Three scenarios for where FIVE stock could go
Current
~$234
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $234
Bear
$191
Base
$316
Bull
$506
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$316+35.0%
At 50x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$191-18.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push FIVE down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Five Below, Inc.
FIVE · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Five Below is a specialty value retailer targeting teens and pre-teens with trendy merchandise priced at $5 or less. It generates revenue primarily from retail store sales — over 1,400 locations across the U.S. — with a broad product mix spanning accessories, tech gadgets, games, and seasonal items. The company's competitive advantage lies in its disciplined price-point focus and treasure-hunt shopping experience that drives high foot traffic and repeat visits.
Market Cap
$12.9B
Revenue TTM
$4.8B
Net Income TTM
$359M
Net Margin
7.5%
FIVE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+31.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.83
Revenue
$971M/$967M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.62
Revenue
$1.0B/$995M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.25
Revenue
$1.0B/$981M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.31/$4.00
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.86/$0.83 | +3.5% | $971M/$967M | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.81/$0.62 | +30.0% | $1.0B/$995M | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.68/$0.25 | +173.4% | $1.0B/$981M | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.31/$4.00 | +7.8% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+9.8% YoY
FY2
$6.2B
+19.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.01
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$8.72
+24.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$412M
FCF Margin: 8.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FIVE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FIVE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Leisure
44.5%
+23.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Leisure is the largest disclosed segment at 44.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.4% YoY.
FIVE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $241 — implies +4.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FIVE
36.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+44% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
FIVE
36.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+85% premium
vs FIVE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.3x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
+14% premium
Forward PE
36.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+93%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+142%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+44%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+85%
5Y Avg
31.7x
+14%
PEG Ratio
1.51x
S&P 500
1.75x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+44%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+93%
5Y Avg
20.8x
+5%
Price/FCF
31.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+47%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+109%
5Y Avg
77.4x
-59%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+281%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+3%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FIVE | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg FIVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 36.7x | 19.1x+93% | 15.2x+142% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.3x | 25.2x+44% | 19.6x+85% | 31.7x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.51x | 1.75x-14% | 0.95x+58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.9x | 15.3x+44% | 11.4x+93% | 20.8x |
| Price/FCF | 31.4x | 21.3x+47% | 15.0x+109% | 77.4x-59% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-13% | 0.7x+281% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
FIVE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFIVE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FIVE generates $412M in free cash flow at a 8.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$412M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$724M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
56M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFIVE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Health and Performance
A company's earnings, profitability, debt levels, and cash flow are critical indicators of its financial health. Poor financial performance, high debt, or an inability to meet financial obligations can lead to a decline in stock price.
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Issues
Fraud allegations, regulatory penalties, or corporate governance failures can lead to significant stock price drops. These issues can severely damage investor confidence and the company's reputation.
High Risk
Market-Wide Risk
Market sentiment and investor psychology can cause broad market movements, leading to stock prices rising or falling regardless of individual company performance. Economic downturns can also lead to a general decline in stock prices across the market.
Medium
Management Decisions and Governance
Poor management decisions, weak business models, accounting errors, corporate scandals, or changes in leadership can negatively affect a company's stock. Such governance issues can lead to instability and loss of investor trust.
Medium
Industry Trends and Competition
Changes in consumer preferences, technological disruptions, or the entry of new competitors can impact companies within the sector. For example, rising fuel prices can negatively affect airlines, while technological advancements can disrupt traditional businesses.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Issues affecting the supply chain for a particular industry can lead to increased costs and reduced profitability. Disruptions can arise from various factors, including geopolitical events and natural disasters.
Lower
Economic Factors
Broader economic conditions significantly influence stock prices. Changes in interest rates, inflation, and currency exchange rates can impact corporate profits and investor sentiment.
Lower
Geopolitical Events
International political and economic events can create uncertainty and volatility in the markets. Political instability, military conflicts, and regulatory changes can all impact market confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FIVE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Unique Value Proposition
Five Below operates in the 'extreme value' specialty retail sector, targeting a younger demographic with a fun and engaging shopping experience. This differentiates it from traditional dollar stores, appealing to a niche market.
Store Growth Potential
The company has a long-term potential to open over 3,500 stores in the U.S. and continues to open new locations, indicating significant store count growth and market penetration.
Successful 'Five Beyond' Strategy
The 'Five Beyond' strategy, which includes items priced higher than $5, has shown success and contributed to recent all-time highs in stock price following strong earnings reports, silencing previous critics.
Strong Financial Performance
Five Below has demonstrated strong revenue and earnings growth, with revenue up 22.90% in fiscal year 2026 and earnings increasing by 41.41%. Earnings are projected to grow by 13.7% per year, indicating robust financial health.
Margin Improvement Opportunities
As the company scales, there's an opportunity to leverage its larger store base over distribution, tech, and headquarters costs, leading to margin improvement and enhanced profitability.
Analyst Optimism
A majority of analysts covering the stock have a 'Buy' rating, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and potential upside from the current stock price.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FIVE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$234.18
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.20
+192.0% from the low
52-Week High
$251.63
-6.9% from the high
1 Month
+0.20%
3 Month
+15.58%
YTD
+21.1%
1 Year
+189.0%
3Y CAGR
+6.0%
5Y CAGR
+4.0%
10Y CAGR
+19.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FIVE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
36.7x
vs 16.0x median
+130% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.8%
vs +6.4% median
+53% above peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 3.5% median
+113% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $12.9B | 36.7x | +9.8% | 7.5% | Buy | -6.3% |
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $19.2B | 14.3x | +6.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +33.7% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.6B | 16.0x | +4.3% | 3.5% | Buy | +24.6% |
PSM PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $5.2B | 29.4x | +8.2% | 2.7% | Hold | -47.8% |
GO GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $781M | 16.0x | +5.8% | -4.8% | Hold | +51.8% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $5.1B | 21.6x | +10.2% | 9.1% | Buy | +67.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsFIVE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $219, implying -6.3% from the current price of $234. The bear case scenario is $191 and the bull case is $506.
02What is the FIVE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FIVE is $219 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+8.9% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (-23.1%). The base case model target is $316.
03Is Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock overvalued in 2026?
FIVE trades at 36.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FIVE in 2026 are: (1) Financial Health and Performance — A company's earnings, profitability, debt levels, and cash flow are critical indicators of its financial health. (2) Legal and Regulatory Issues — Fraud allegations, regulatory penalties, or corporate governance failures can lead to significant stock price drops. (3) Market-Wide Risk — Market sentiment and investor psychology can cause broad market movements, leading to stock prices rising or falling regardless of individual company performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Five Below, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FIVE will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+9.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.01 (+8.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.2B in revenue.
06When does Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FIVE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Five Below, Inc. generate?
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) generated $412M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.6%. FIVE returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).