Upside case
Bull case
$353+81.8%
FIVE would need investors to value it at roughly 55x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
30 bullish · 0 bearish · 50 covering FIVE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
20
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$238
+22.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$169 – $353
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.7B
FIVE price targets
Three scenarios for where FIVE stock could go
Current
~$194
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $194
Bear
$169
Base
$268
Bull
$353
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$268+38.0%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$169-13.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push FIVE down roughly 13% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Five Below, Inc.
FIVE · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Five Below is a specialty value retailer targeting teens and pre-teens with trendy merchandise priced at $5 or less. It generates revenue primarily from retail store sales — over 1,400 locations across the U.S. — with a broad product mix spanning accessories, tech gadgets, games, and seasonal items. The company's competitive advantage lies in its disciplined price-point focus and treasure-hunt shopping experience that drives high foot traffic and repeat visits.
Market Cap
$10.7B
Revenue TTM
$5.1B
Net Income TTM
$441M
Net Margin
8.7%
FIVE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+32.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.62
Revenue
$1.0B/$995M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.25
Revenue
$1.0B/$981M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.31/$4.00
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.22/$1.77
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.81/$0.62 | +30.0% | $1.0B/$995M | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.68/$0.25 | +173.4% | $1.0B/$981M | +5.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.31/$4.00 | +7.8% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.22/$1.77 | +25.4% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +4.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.4B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$5.6B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.28
-8.1% YoY
FY2
$8.72
+19.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$505M
FCF Margin: 9.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FIVE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FIVE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Leisure
44.5%
+23.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Leisure is the largest disclosed segment at 44.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.4% YoY.
FIVE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $151 — implies -22.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FIVE
30.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+23% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
FIVE
30.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+42% premium
vs FIVE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.0x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
5% discount
Forward PE
30.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+62%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+86%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+23%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+42%
5Y Avg
31.7x
-5%
PEG Ratio
1.25x
S&P 500
1.66x
-25%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+22%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+52%
5Y Avg
20.8x
-11%
Price/FCF
26.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+26%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+67%
5Y Avg
77.4x
-66%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+223%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-15%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FIVE | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg FIVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.4x | 18.8x+62% | 16.3x+86% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.0x | 24.4x+23% | 21.2x+42% | 31.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25x | 1.66x-25% | 0.92x+35% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 15.2x+22% | 12.2x+52% | 20.8x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 26.1x | 20.7x+26% | 15.6x+67% | 77.4x-66% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 0.7x+223% | 2.6x-15% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
FIVE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFIVE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FIVE generates $505M in free cash flow at a 9.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$505M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$724M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.6× FCF
~2.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
55M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFIVE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cost Inflation
The company faces a 20 to 25 basis point headwind due to rising diesel fuel and outbound transportation costs.
High Risk
Recession Impact
Flat or negative comps due to a recession could drop EPS growth to high-single-digits.
Medium
Profitability Decline
Declining profitability poses risks despite strong store expansion.
Medium
Overvaluation Risk
High valuation multiples may not be sustainable given operational challenges.
Lower
Debt Levels
Elevated debt could constrain financial flexibility in adverse conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FIVE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Q1 financial performance
Five Below reported a 32.5% increase in Q1 net sales to $1.3 billion and a 22.7% increase in comparable sales, with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.21.
Raised full-year guidance
The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting net sales of $5.40 billion and showing confidence in future performance.
Expanding store footprint
A bull case scenario includes opening 230+ new stores, contributing to potential EPS growth of 20%.
Strong comparable sales growth
The company achieved a 22.7% increase in comparable sales, indicating strong customer demand and effective merchandising.
Extreme-value retail focus
Five Below's focus on kids/tweens/teens with most items priced $1-$5 and an expanding 'Five Beyond' assortment positions it well in the value retail segment.
Repeatable small-box format
The company's growth model relies on a scalable, repeatable small-box format and distribution efficiency, enabling rapid expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FIVE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$194.06
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$121.11
+60.2% from the low
52-Week High
$251.63
-22.9% from the high
1 Month
-11.13%
3 Month
-8.66%
YTD
+0.3%
1 Year
+57.5%
3Y CAGR
+0.1%
5Y CAGR
+1.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FIVE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.4x
vs 18.3x median
+67% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +7.2% median
-16% below peer median
Net Margin
8.7%
vs 3.6% median
+139% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $10.7B | 30.4x | +6.0% | 8.7% | Buy | +22.5% |
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $21.5B | 16.1x | +7.2% | 6.5% | Buy | +9.7% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.0B | 15.5x | +5.0% | 3.6% | Buy | +20.9% |
PSM PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | $6.0B | 33.4x | +9.8% | 2.7% | Hold | -54.1% |
GO GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $916M | 18.3x | +5.5% | -8.1% | Hold | +18.8% |
OLL OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $4.6B | 19.9x | +7.7% | 9.1% | Buy | +53.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsFIVE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $238, implying +22.5% from the current price of $194. The bear case scenario is $169 and the bull case is $353.
02What is the FIVE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FIVE is $238 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $285 (+46.9% from today), and the low-end target is $210 (+8.2%). The base case model target is $268.
03Is Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock overvalued in 2026?
FIVE trades at 30.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FIVE in 2026 are: (1) Cost Inflation — The company faces a 20 to 25 basis point headwind due to rising diesel fuel and outbound transportation costs. (2) Recession Impact — Flat or negative comps due to a recession could drop EPS growth to high-single-digits. (3) Profitability Decline — Declining profitability poses risks despite strong store expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Five Below, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FIVE will report consensus revenue of $5.4B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.28 (-8.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.6B in revenue.
06When does Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FIVE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Five Below, Inc. generate?
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) generated $505M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.9%. FIVE returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).