Upside case
Bull case
$181+62.1%
DLTR would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
25 bullish · 6 bearish · 49 covering DLTR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
18
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$123
+9.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $181
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.5B
DLTR price targets
Three scenarios for where DLTR stock could go
Current
~$112
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $112
Bear
$87
Base
$137
Bull
$181
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$137+23.0%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-22.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DLTR down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dollar Tree, Inc.
DLTR · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Dollar Tree operates a chain of discount variety retail stores that sell most items at fixed low price points — primarily $1.25 at its namesake stores and various low prices at Family Dollar locations. The company generates revenue through two main segments: Dollar Tree stores (fixed-price merchandise) and Family Dollar stores (general merchandise discount retail), with both segments contributing roughly equally to overall sales. Its competitive advantage lies in its extreme value positioning and massive scale — operating over 15,000 stores across North America — which creates significant purchasing power and distribution efficiencies.
Market Cap
$21.5B
Revenue TTM
$19.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
6.5%
DLTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.77/$0.42
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.21/$1.09
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.56/$2.53
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.74/$1.53
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.77/$0.42 | +84.8% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.21/$1.09 | +11.0% | $4.8B/$4.7B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.56/$2.53 | +1.2% | $5.5B/$5.5B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.74/$1.53 | +13.7% | $5.0B/$5.0B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.2B
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$22.3B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.82
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$7.16
+5.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 7.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DLTR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DLTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Dollar Tree
100.0%
+10.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Dollar Tree is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.4% YoY.
DLTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $137 — implies +22.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DLTR
18.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
DLTR
18.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
In line with benchmark
vs DLTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.8x
vs
5Y Average
20.9x
10% discount
Forward PE
16.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-15%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-1%
5Y Avg
20.9x
-10%
PEG Ratio
18.68x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1026%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+873%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-26%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+2%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-23%
Price/FCF
15.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-26%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+0%
5Y Avg
49.1x
-69%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-64%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+26%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-24%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DLTR | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.1x | 18.8x-15% | 14.2x+13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.8x | 24.4x-23% | 18.9x | 20.9x-10% |
| PEG Ratio | 18.68x | 1.66x+1026% | 1.92x+873% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3x | 15.2x-26% | 11.1x | 14.7x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 15.4x | 20.7x-26% | 15.3x | 49.1x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-64% | 0.9x+26% | 1.5x-24% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.06% | — |
DLTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDLTR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DLTR 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 7.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-19.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$718M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
7.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
192M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDLTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Family Dollar underperformance
Family Dollar continues to underperform, dragging margins and management focus.
High Risk
Competitive pressure
Competitive pressure from Dollar General and Walmart could erode market share.
High Risk
Execution risk
Execution risk remains high, particularly in supply chain and store operations.
High Risk
Margin squeeze
Inflation, higher wages, and fading freight benefits could squeeze margins.
Medium
Analyst caution
Analysts express cautious optimism, with some turning bearish due to operational risks.
Lower
Valuation uncertainty
Fair value estimates are being refined, reflecting uncertainty about the company's potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DLTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Divestiture of Family Dollar
The company's divestiture of Family Dollar is seen as a positive move, allowing it to focus on core operations and improve margins.
Superior margins and EBIT
Dollar Tree demonstrates superior margins and EBIT per square foot compared to competitors like Dollar General, indicating efficient operations.
Multi-price initiatives
Growth potential from multi-price initiatives is highlighted, which could attract a broader customer base and drive revenue.
Store expansion
The company's store expansion plans are viewed as a key driver for future growth and market penetration.
Institutional ownership
Strong institutional ownership, with top holder Vanguard Group at 11.65%, signals confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DLTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$111.65
52W Range Position
47%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$84.71
+31.8% from the low
52-Week High
$142.40
-21.6% from the high
1 Month
+22.38%
3 Month
+3.87%
YTD
-12.6%
1 Year
+14.5%
3Y CAGR
-6.5%
5Y CAGR
+2.2%
10Y CAGR
+1.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DLTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.1x
vs 18.3x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
vs +5.0% median
+42% above peer median
Net Margin
6.5%
vs 3.4% median
+90% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $21.5B | 16.1x | +7.2% | 6.5% | Buy | +9.7% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.0B | 15.5x | +5.0% | 3.6% | Buy | +20.9% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $10.7B | 30.4x | +6.0% | 8.7% | Buy | +22.5% |
GO GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $916M | 18.3x | +5.5% | -8.1% | Hold | +18.8% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DLTR Dividend and Capital Return
DLTR returns 7.2% annually — null% through dividends and 7.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
7.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
192M
At 7.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDLTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $123, implying +9.7% from the current price of $112. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $181.
02What is the DLTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DLTR is $123 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $165 (+47.8% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-23.9%). The base case model target is $137.
03Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
DLTR trades at 16.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DLTR in 2026 are: (1) Family Dollar underperformance — Family Dollar continues to underperform, dragging margins and management focus. (2) Competitive pressure — Competitive pressure from Dollar General and Walmart could erode market share. (3) Execution risk — Execution risk remains high, particularly in supply chain and store operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dollar Tree, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DLTR will report consensus revenue of $21.2B (+7.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.82 (+4.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.3B in revenue.
06When does Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DLTR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dollar Tree, Inc. generate?
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.9%. DLTR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).