Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing DLTR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
25 bullish · 5 bearish · 47 covering DLTR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
17
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$129
+37.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$3 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.6B
DLTR price targets
Three scenarios for where DLTR stock could go
Current
~$94
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $94
Bear
$3
Base
$72
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$72-23.0%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3-97.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push DLTR down roughly 97% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dollar Tree, Inc.
DLTR · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Dollar Tree operates a chain of discount variety retail stores that sell most items at fixed low price points — primarily $1.25 at its namesake stores and various low prices at Family Dollar locations. The company generates revenue through two main segments: Dollar Tree stores (fixed-price merchandise) and Family Dollar stores (general merchandise discount retail), with both segments contributing roughly equally to overall sales. Its competitive advantage lies in its extreme value positioning and massive scale — operating over 15,000 stores across North America — which creates significant purchasing power and distribution efficiencies.
Market Cap
$18.6B
Revenue TTM
$19.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
6.6%
DLTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.21
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.77/$0.42
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.21/$1.09
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.56/$2.53
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.26/$1.21 | +4.1% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.77/$0.42 | +84.8% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.21/$1.09 | +11.0% | $4.8B/$4.7B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.56/$2.53 | +1.2% | $5.5B/$5.5B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.7B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$22.0B
+6.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.52
-14.0% YoY
FY2
$4.57
-17.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 5.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DLTR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DLTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Dollar Tree
100.0%
+10.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Dollar Tree is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.4% YoY.
DLTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $129 — implies +35.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DLTR
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
37% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
DLTR
15.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
17% discount
vs DLTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
20.9x
25% discount
Forward PE
13.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-27%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-37%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
-17%
5Y Avg
20.9x
-25%
PEG Ratio
15.68x
S&P 500
1.72x
+814%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+738%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-34%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
-13%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-32%
Price/FCF
17.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
-17%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+18%
5Y Avg
50.2x
-65%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-69%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+16%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-34%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DLTR | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg DLTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.9x | 19.1x-27% | 15.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.1x-37% | 19.1x-17% | 20.9x-25% |
| PEG Ratio | 15.68x | 1.72x+814% | 1.87x+738% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-34% | 11.5x-13% | 14.7x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 17.6x | 21.1x-17% | 14.9x+18% | 50.2x-65% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-69% | 0.8x+16% | 1.5x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.79% | — |
DLTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDLTR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DLTR 13.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 8.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-19.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$718M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.5× FCF
~3.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (13.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
8.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
206M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDLTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Operational and Margin Risks
Dollar Tree operates on a low-margin, high-volume model, making it vulnerable to small shifts in mark-ups or inventory losses. Factors such as a weaker sales mix, rising shrink, and increased costs from an OSHA settlement could significantly impact profitability.
High Risk
Competitive Pressures
The discount retail sector is highly competitive, with Dollar Tree facing significant competition from Family Dollar, Walmart, and Target. These competitors are expanding their private-label offerings and opening smaller format stores, intensifying the pressure on Dollar Tree's market share.
High Risk
Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
Dollar Tree's stock is susceptible to general market volatility and economic uncertainty. As a discount retailer, it may be viewed as a defensive stock, but rising unemployment could also shift consumer behavior, impacting sales.
Medium
Supply Chain and Inventory Management
Disruptions in the distribution network or delays in inventory can adversely affect sales and profitability. Elevated inventory levels and lower in-stock rates at competitors like Dollar General highlight the importance of effective inventory management.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Factors
Changes in regulations, product liability claims, or anti-immigration policies could negatively impact Dollar Tree's operations and financial performance. Upcoming changes to SNAP benefits in January 2026 may particularly affect its customer base.
Lower
Technological Disruption
Challenges related to technology adoption and innovation could hinder Dollar Tree's operations. The company has been noted for its reluctance to invest heavily in technology, which may affect its competitiveness in the long run.
Lower
Macroeconomic Factors
Dollar Tree is sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as tariffs, inflation, and interest rates. Recent tariff concerns have put pressure on margins, while broader economic conditions can influence consumer spending.
Lower
Other Risks
Failure to protect its reputation could materially affect Dollar Tree's financial performance. The company's strategic focus on operational excellence is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DLTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Operational Execution and Strategy
Dollar Tree has achieved consistent comparable store sales growth for 20 consecutive years. The successful rollout of the Dollar Tree 3.0 format, which includes multiple price points, has driven margin expansion and is expected to continue supporting comparable sales growth.
Strong Financial Performance
In Q4 FY2025, Dollar Tree reported strong gross margins of 39.1% and generated over $1 billion in free cash flow. Management guidance indicates continued sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth through 2028.
Recession-Resistant Market Position
Dollar Tree is positioned as a recession-resistant retailer, appealing to a diverse customer base, including higher-income households. This focus on value and a varied product mix enhances its resilience in the current economic environment.
Cost Management and Efficiency
The company is actively managing its corporate SG&A expenses, aiming to reduce them as a percentage of sales. This strategy is expected to yield benefits from operating leverage through cost reductions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DLTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$93.69
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$83.11
+12.7% from the low
52-Week High
$142.40
-34.2% from the high
1 Month
-15.66%
3 Month
-21.66%
YTD
-26.6%
1 Year
+11.6%
3Y CAGR
-15.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.0%
10Y CAGR
+1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DLTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.9x
vs 16.1x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs +5.8% median
+11% above peer median
Net Margin
6.6%
vs 3.5% median
+87% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $18.6B | 13.9x | +6.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +37.7% |
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.7B | 16.1x | +4.3% | 3.5% | Buy | +23.9% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $12.5B | 35.6x | +9.8% | 7.5% | Buy | -3.2% |
GO GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $770M | 15.7x | +5.8% | -4.8% | Hold | +54.1% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DLTR Dividend and Capital Return
DLTR returns 8.3% annually — null% through dividends and 8.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
8.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
17M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
206M
At 8.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDLTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $129, implying +37.7% from the current price of $94.
02What is the DLTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DLTR is $129 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $165 (+76.1% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (-19.9%). The base case model target is $72.
03Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
DLTR trades at 13.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DLTR in 2026 are: (1) Operational and Margin Risks — Dollar Tree operates on a low-margin, high-volume model, making it vulnerable to small shifts in mark-ups or inventory losses. (2) Competitive Pressures — The discount retail sector is highly competitive, with Dollar Tree facing significant competition from Family Dollar, Walmart, and Target. (3) Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty — Dollar Tree's stock is susceptible to general market volatility and economic uncertainty. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dollar Tree, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DLTR will report consensus revenue of $20.7B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.52 (-14.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.0B in revenue.
06When does Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DLTR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dollar Tree, Inc. generate?
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.8%. DLTR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).