Upside case
Bull case
$299+156.8%
DG would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
27 bullish · 3 bearish · 50 covering DG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
20
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$145
+24.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$92 – $299
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.6B
DG price targets
Three scenarios for where DG stock could go
Current
~$116
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $116
Bear
$92
Base
$132
Bull
$299
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$132+13.1%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$92-20.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push DG down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dollar General Corporation
DG · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Dollar General is a discount retailer operating thousands of small-format stores primarily in rural and suburban communities across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from consumable goods — including food, household essentials, and health/beauty products — which represent about 80% of sales, with the remainder from seasonal items and home products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive rural footprint — often being the only convenient retailer in underserved communities — and its disciplined low-cost operating model that keeps prices consistently below traditional retailers.
Market Cap
$25.6B
Revenue TTM
$42.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
3.5%
DG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.78/$1.48
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.58
Revenue
$10.7B/$10.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.28/$0.94
Revenue
$10.6B/$10.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.66
Revenue
$10.9B/$10.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.78/$1.48 | +20.3% | $10.4B/$10.3B | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$1.58 | +17.7% | $10.7B/$10.7B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28/$0.94 | +35.4% | $10.6B/$10.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93/$1.66 | +16.3% | $10.9B/$10.8B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.5B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$46.6B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.24
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$7.75
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 7.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $40.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consumables
82.2%
+6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Consumables is the largest disclosed segment at 82.2% of FY 2024 revenue, up 6.5% YoY.
DG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $185 — implies +61.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
61.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DG
17.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
33% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
DG
17.0x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
13% discount
vs DG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.0x
vs
5Y Average
18.9x
10% discount
Forward PE
16.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-16%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
-13%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-10%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-19%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+8%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-16%
Price/FCF
10.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-50%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
-32%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-75%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-29%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-36%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
S&P 500
1.88%
+8%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
-26%
5Y Avg
1.69%
+20%
| Metric | DG | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg DG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.0x | 19.1x-16% | 14.6x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.0x | 25.2x-33% | 19.6x-13% | 18.9x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4x | 15.3x-19% | 11.4x | 14.7x-16% |
| Price/FCF | 10.7x | 21.3x-50% | 15.7x-32% | 42.9x-75% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 0.8x-29% | 0.9x-36% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.02% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 1.69% |
DG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DG returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$42.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
221M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels
Dollar General carries a significant amount of debt, which poses risks if the company struggles to meet its obligations. The company's liabilities outweigh its cash and near-term receivables, indicating substantial leverage that could impact financial stability.
High Risk
Economic Conditions
Economic factors such as inflation and changes in consumer spending patterns can significantly reduce customer spending. This impairment in consumer behavior may lead to decreased sales and profitability for Dollar General.
High Risk
Competition
Intensifying competition from major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Aldi poses a substantial risk to Dollar General. The company's concentration in rural and low-income markets with limited product selection may hinder its ability to maintain growth in the face of this competition.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Interruptions in the supply chain can adversely affect Dollar General's operational efficiency. Such disruptions may lead to increased costs and impact the company's ability to meet customer demand.
Medium
Product Liability and Recalls
Claims related to product liability, recalls, or safety issues could negatively impact Dollar General's business and reputation. Reliance on vendors for product compliance increases the risk of significant adverse effects if issues arise.
Medium
Store Operations and Execution
Implementing new operational procedures across a large store network is complex and can lead to temporary disruptions. These disruptions may impact sales and customer satisfaction, with associated costs potentially pressuring margins.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
Technology and cybersecurity risks present potential challenges for Dollar General. Disruptions in information systems could lead to unexpected costs and operational inefficiencies.
Lower
Leadership Transition
Uncertainty surrounding a new CEO in 2027 poses a potential risk to Dollar General's strategic direction and operational stability. Leadership changes can impact investor confidence and company performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Resilient Business Model
Dollar General operates over 20,500 stores across 48 states, often serving as the only retail option in rural areas. This unique positioning provides a stable customer base that relies on its convenient locations and consistently low prices for essential goods.
Management Initiatives and Margin Recovery
New leadership is focusing on stabilizing operations through measures like reducing shrink, remodeling stores, and expanding higher-margin growth areas such as pOpshelf and digital offerings. If these initiatives gain traction, they could help offset cost pressures and improve profitability.
Potential for Long-Term Compounding
Analysts suggest that margin recovery and share buybacks could drive double-digit earnings growth, making DG a durable compounder with substantial long-term upside.
Undervalued Stock
Some analysts believe that at current valuations, DG trades at a discount that underestimates its earnings power, especially considering its potential for margin recovery and operational improvements.
Strategic Advantages
The company's focus on non-consumable merchandise and private label offerings gives it a competitive edge in its target markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$116.36
52W Range Position
42%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.25
+34.9% from the low
52-Week High
$158.23
-26.5% from the high
1 Month
-6.91%
3 Month
-20.65%
YTD
-15.0%
1 Year
+24.2%
3Y CAGR
-19.1%
5Y CAGR
-11.8%
10Y CAGR
+3.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.0x
vs 36.7x median
-56% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +5.9% median
-28% below peer median
Net Margin
3.5%
vs 3.8% median
-7% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.6B | 16.0x | +4.3% | 3.5% | Buy | +24.6% |
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $19.2B | 14.3x | +6.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +33.7% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $12.9B | 36.7x | +9.8% | 7.5% | Buy | -6.3% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.7x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +5.4% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.3B | 16.3x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -11.4% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $441.4B | 48.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +7.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DG Dividend and Capital Return
DG returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 2.02% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.02%
Payout Ratio
34.4%
How DG Splits Its Return
Div 2.02%
Dividend 2.02%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.4%
5Y Div CAGR
11.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
221M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2024 | $2.36 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $1.77 | -32.4% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $2.62 | +61.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsDG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $145, implying +24.6% from the current price of $116. The bear case scenario is $92 and the bull case is $299.
02What is the DG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DG is $145 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+46.1% from today), and the low-end target is $111 (-4.6%). The base case model target is $132.
03Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock overvalued in 2026?
DG trades at 16.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DG in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels — Dollar General carries a significant amount of debt, which poses risks if the company struggles to meet its obligations. (2) Economic Conditions — Economic factors such as inflation and changes in consumer spending patterns can significantly reduce customer spending. (3) Competition — Intensifying competition from major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Aldi poses a substantial risk to Dollar General. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dollar General Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DG will report consensus revenue of $44.5B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.24 (+5.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.6B in revenue.
06When does Dollar General Corporation (DG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dollar General Corporation generate?
Dollar General Corporation (DG) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.2%. DG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).