Upside case
Bull case
$175+54.5%
DG would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
27 bullish · 3 bearish · 51 covering DG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$137
+20.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $175
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.0B
DG price targets
Three scenarios for where DG stock could go
Current
~$114
Confidence
69 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $114
Bear
$84
Base
$133
Bull
$175
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$133+17.3%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84-26.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DG down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Dollar General Corporation
DG · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
Dollar General is a discount retailer operating thousands of small-format stores primarily in rural and suburban communities across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from consumable goods — including food, household essentials, and health/beauty products — which represent about 80% of sales, with the remainder from seasonal items and home products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive rural footprint — often being the only convenient retailer in underserved communities — and its disciplined low-cost operating model that keeps prices consistently below traditional retailers.
Market Cap
$25.0B
Revenue TTM
$43.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
3.6%
DG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.58
Revenue
$10.7B/$10.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.28/$0.94
Revenue
$10.6B/$10.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.66
Revenue
$10.9B/$10.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.00/$1.89
Revenue
$10.8B/$10.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$1.58 | +17.7% | $10.7B/$10.7B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.28/$0.94 | +35.4% | $10.6B/$10.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93/$1.66 | +16.3% | $10.9B/$10.8B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.00/$1.89 | +5.8% | $10.8B/$10.8B | -0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$45.2B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$47.1B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.42
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$7.94
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 6.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $42.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consumables
82.0%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Consumables is the largest disclosed segment at 82.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
DG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $163 — implies +43.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DG
16.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
32% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
DG
16.6x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
12% discount
vs DG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.6x
vs
5Y Average
18.9x
12% discount
Forward PE
15.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-18%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-32%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-12%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-20%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+10%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-17%
Price/FCF
10.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-49%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-32%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-76%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-33%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-37%
Dividend Yield
2.07%
S&P 500
1.91%
+8%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-32%
5Y Avg
1.69%
+23%
| Metric | DG | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg DG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.5x | 18.8x-18% | 14.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.6x | 24.4x-32% | 18.9x-12% | 18.9x-12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2x | 15.2x-20% | 11.1x | 14.7x-17% |
| Price/FCF | 10.5x | 20.7x-49% | 15.3x-32% | 42.9x-76% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 0.9x-33% | 0.9x-37% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.07% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.69% |
DG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DG returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$43.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.06
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.0× FCF
~5.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
221M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Consumer Caution
Dollar General is facing cautious consumer behavior, impacting same-store sales trends and margin progress.
High Risk
Margin Compression
The company is struggling with margin compression due to pressured low-end consumer spending.
Medium
Decelerating Growth
Dollar General's growth projections are decelerating, contributing to a bearish outlook for the stock.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The stock has lost significant value, with a projected annualized return of -1.0%, signaling a 'Sell' for investors.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Recent market developments have led to a bearish movement in Dollar General's stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Margin compression recovery
The bullish thesis highlights margin compression from pressured low-income consumers but anticipates recovery as conditions normalize, leading to stock appreciation.
Sales growth and traffic
Dollar General's Q1 2026 results showed 3.4% net sales growth, positive traffic trends, and broad-based category strength, indicating operational resilience.
Gross margin expansion
The company achieved gross margin expansion to 31.6%, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency in its operations.
Execution and resilience
Improved execution and resilience have contributed to a 35% stock price appreciation since the bullish thesis was initially presented.
Low-income consumer stabilization
The thesis argues that stabilization among low-income consumers will restore profitability, driving further upside for Dollar General.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$113.50
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$95.11
+19.3% from the low
52-Week High
$158.23
-28.3% from the high
1 Month
+6.85%
3 Month
-10.38%
YTD
-17.0%
1 Year
+1.1%
3Y CAGR
-11.7%
5Y CAGR
-11.8%
10Y CAGR
+2.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.5x
vs 30.4x median
-49% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +5.8% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
3.6%
vs 3.4% median
+6% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DG DG Dollar General Corporation | $25.0B | 15.5x | +5.0% | 3.6% | Buy | +20.9% |
DLT DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | $21.5B | 16.1x | +7.2% | 6.5% | Buy | +9.7% |
FIV FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $10.7B | 30.4x | +6.0% | 8.7% | Buy | +22.5% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $421.9B | 46.4x | +5.8% | 3.0% | Buy | +16.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DG Dividend and Capital Return
DG returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 2.07% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.07%
Payout Ratio
34.4%
How DG Splits Its Return
Div 2.07%
Dividend 2.07%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.4%
5Y Div CAGR
11.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
221M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2024 | $2.36 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $1.77 | -32.4% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $2.62 | +61.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsDG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $137, implying +20.9% from the current price of $114. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $175.
02What is the DG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DG is $137 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+49.8% from today), and the low-end target is $110 (-3.1%). The base case model target is $133.
03Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock overvalued in 2026?
DG trades at 15.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Dollar General Corporation (DG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DG in 2026 are: (1) Consumer Caution — Dollar General is facing cautious consumer behavior, impacting same-store sales trends and margin progress. (2) Margin Compression — The company is struggling with margin compression due to pressured low-end consumer spending. (3) Decelerating Growth — Dollar General's growth projections are decelerating, contributing to a bearish outlook for the stock. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Dollar General Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DG will report consensus revenue of $45.2B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.42 (+5.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $47.1B in revenue.
06When does Dollar General Corporation (DG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Dollar General Corporation generate?
Dollar General Corporation (DG) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.7%. DG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).