Upside case
Bull case
$36+70.9%
FMS would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering FMS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+33.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$10 – $36
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
FMS price targets
Three scenarios for where FMS stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$10
Base
$18
Bull
$36
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$18-13.1%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$10-50.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push FMS down roughly 50% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
FMS · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
Fresenius Medical Care is a global leader in dialysis care and products for patients with chronic kidney failure. It generates revenue through two main segments: dialysis services (about 75% of revenue) from its network of outpatient clinics and hospital contracts, and dialysis products (about 25%) including machines, dialyzers, and related supplies. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated model—combining clinics, products, and services—which creates patient stickiness and economies of scale in the capital-intensive dialysis industry.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$19.6B
Net Income TTM
$978M
Net Margin
5.0%
FMS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.50
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.59
Revenue
$5.7B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.65
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.59
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.50 | +4.0% | $5.6B/$5.0B | +13.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.59 | +8.5% | $5.7B/$4.8B | +19.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.65 | +28.3% | $6.0B/$5.7B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.53/$0.59 | -10.2% | $5.4B/$5.4B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.8B
+1.1% YoY
FY2
$20.2B
+1.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.73
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$1.71
-1.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FMS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FMS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Health Care Services
74.8%
-13.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
96.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Health Care Services is the largest disclosed segment at 74.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 13.2% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 96.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FMS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $47 — implies +109.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
109.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FMS
10.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
58% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
FMS
10.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
52% discount
vs FMS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.7x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
59% discount
Forward PE
10.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-46%
Healthcare
19.0x
-46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-58%
Healthcare
22.1x
-52%
5Y Avg
26.2x
-59%
PEG Ratio
2.09x
S&P 500
1.75x
+20%
Healthcare
1.52x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-62%
Healthcare
14.1x
-59%
5Y Avg
9.1x
-35%
Price/FCF
5.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-72%
Healthcare
18.7x
-68%
5Y Avg
11.8x
-50%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-84%
Healthcare
2.8x
-82%
5Y Avg
1.0x
-51%
Dividend Yield
3.89%
S&P 500
1.88%
+107%
Healthcare
1.40%
+178%
5Y Avg
2.27%
+72%
| Metric | FMS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg FMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.2x | 19.1x-46% | 19.0x-46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.7x | 25.2x-58% | 22.1x-52% | 26.2x-59% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.09x | 1.75x+20% | 1.52x+37% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | 15.3x-62% | 14.1x-59% | 9.1x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 5.9x | 21.3x-72% | 18.7x-68% | 11.8x-50% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-84% | 2.8x-82% | 1.0x-51% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.89% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 2.27% |
FMS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFMS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FMS generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — returns 9.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.5%
Dividend
3.9%
Buyback
5.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$562M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
559M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration Risk
Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) relies heavily on a limited number of clients, with approximately 51.5% of revenue coming from the top 10 clients and 35% from the top 5 as of Q1 fiscal 2025. This concentration exposes the company to significant risks from economic downturns in key markets like the US and UK.
High Risk
Debt Profile Risk
FMS maintains a high debt profile, primarily due to lease and short-term debt driven by working capital needs and acquisitions. Any substantial debt-funded acquisitions could weaken coverage indicators, increasing financial vulnerability.
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance Risk
FMS faces evolving regulations in healthcare and data privacy laws such as GDPR and CCPA, which can significantly increase compliance costs. Non-compliance could lead to substantial fines, impacting financial performance.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
FMS's liquidity profile is generally adequate, but the current ratio has consistently hovered around 0.9x-1.01x, indicating potential liquidity constraints. This situation is exacerbated by lease obligations and reliance on working capital borrowings.
Medium
Competition Risk
The Business Process Management (BPM) industry is highly competitive, which can pressure pricing and margins for FMS. Intense competition may hinder the company's ability to maintain market share and profitability.
Medium
Talent Acquisition Risk
FMS experiences high employee turnover, with attrition rates around 35% in 2023. This leads to increased recruitment and training costs, which can negatively impact margins and service quality.
Lower
Brand Visibility Risk
FMS has lower brand visibility compared to top-tier BPO leaders, which may hinder its ability to secure large, transformative deals. This could limit growth opportunities in a competitive market.
Lower
Sector-Specific Risk
FMS's revenue concentration in core verticals like healthcare, BFSI, and CMT makes it susceptible to sector-specific downturns or regulatory changes. Such shocks could adversely affect revenue and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FMS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Attractive Valuation
FMS is considered a strong value stock, with a forward P/E ratio around 9.16-9.63. This suggests that the stock may be trading below its intrinsic value, making it an appealing option for value-focused investors.
Growth Potential in ESRD Treatment
Fresenius Medical Care is expected to benefit from ongoing growth in treating End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) patients worldwide. The company's leading global position in dialysis clinics and medical technology provides a solid foundation for long-term growth, particularly with anticipated expansion in emerging markets.
Ambitious Margin Improvement Goals
The company aims to boost its operating margins from a low base, with management targeting mid-teens operating margins by 2030. Achieving this goal could significantly enhance profit growth and investor confidence.
Innovative Dialysis Technology Rollout
The rollout of new dialysis technology, specifically HVHDF, is seen as a positive development for FMS. This innovation, along with the shift towards Value-Based Care, presents opportunities for systemic benefits and potential share growth.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Some analysts have revised their earnings estimates upwards for FMS, assigning it a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating. This positive sentiment is based on the company's solid financial performance, attractive valuation, and dividend yield.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FMS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.01
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.02
+4.9% from the low
52-Week High
$30.46
-31.0% from the high
1 Month
-6.54%
3 Month
-12.75%
YTD
-10.6%
1 Year
-23.3%
3Y CAGR
-3.3%
5Y CAGR
-11.5%
10Y CAGR
-6.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FMS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.2x
vs 11.6x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.1%
vs +3.9% median
-73% below peer median
Net Margin
5.0%
vs -9.7% median
+151% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FMS FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA | $11.7B | 10.2x | +1.1% | 5.0% | Hold | +33.3% |
DVA DVA DaVita Inc. | $12.8B | 13.7x | +4.9% | 5.6% | Hold | -13.0% |
FXN FXNC First National Corporation | $249M | 11.6x | +20.8% | — | Buy | -23.6% |
NKT NKTR Nektar Therapeutics | $1.7B | — | -30.9% | -192.9% | Buy | +56.1% |
BAX BAX Baxter International Inc. | $8.8B | 8.9x | +2.9% | -9.7% | Hold | +16.3% |
NVA NVA Nova Minerals Limited | $31M | — | — | — | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FMS Dividend and Capital Return
FMS returns 9.5% annually — 3.89% through dividends and 5.6% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.6%
Dividend Yield
3.89%
Payout Ratio
41.5%
How FMS Splits Its Return
Div 3.89%
Buyback 5.6%
Dividend 3.89%Buybacks 5.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$562M
Estimated Shares Retired
27M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
559M
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.81 | +28.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $0.63 | +2.6% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | -12.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $0.71 | -14.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2021 | $0.83 | +17.9% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsFMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +33.3% from the current price of $21. The bear case scenario is $10 and the bull case is $36.
02What is the FMS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FMS is $28 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $28 (+33.3% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (+33.3%). The base case model target is $18.
03Is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock overvalued in 2026?
FMS trades at 10.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FMS in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration Risk — Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) relies heavily on a limited number of clients, with approximately 51. (2) Debt Profile Risk — FMS maintains a high debt profile, primarily due to lease and short-term debt driven by working capital needs and acquisitions. (3) Regulatory Compliance Risk — FMS faces evolving regulations in healthcare and data privacy laws such as GDPR and CCPA, which can significantly increase compliance costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FMS will report consensus revenue of $19.8B (+1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.73 (+1.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.2B in revenue.
06When does Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FMS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA generate?
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. FMS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.9% yield) and share repurchases ($562M TTM).