Upside case
Bull case
$24+2.5%
FMS would need investors to value it at roughly 12x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering FMS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+18.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $24
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.0B
FMS price targets
Three scenarios for where FMS stock could go
Current
~$24
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $24
Bear
$12
Base
$18
Bull
$24
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$18-22.2%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$12-51.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push FMS down roughly 51% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
FMS · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
Fresenius Medical Care is a global leader in dialysis care and products for patients with chronic kidney failure. It generates revenue through two main segments: dialysis services (about 75% of revenue) from its network of outpatient clinics and hospital contracts, and dialysis products (about 25%) including machines, dialyzers, and related supplies. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated model—combining clinics, products, and services—which creates patient stickiness and economies of scale in the capital-intensive dialysis industry.
Market Cap
$13.0B
Revenue TTM
$19.4B
Net Income TTM
$947M
Net Margin
4.9%
FMS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.50
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.59
Revenue
$5.7B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.65
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.59
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.50 | +4.0% | $5.6B/$5.0B | +13.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.59 | +8.5% | $5.7B/$4.8B | +19.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.65 | +28.3% | $6.0B/$5.7B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.53/$0.59 | -10.2% | $5.4B/$5.4B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.9B
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$20.5B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.60
-6.9% YoY
FY2
$1.55
-2.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 9.1%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.62
Expected Revenue
$5.6B
FMS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FMS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Health Care Services
74.8%
-13.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
96.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Health Care Services is the largest disclosed segment at 74.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 13.2% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 96.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FMS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $39 — implies +67.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
67.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FMS
12.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
50% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
FMS
12.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
45% discount
vs FMS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.2x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
53% discount
Forward PE
11.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-38%
Healthcare
18.3x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-50%
Healthcare
22.1x
-45%
5Y Avg
26.2x
-53%
PEG Ratio
2.39x
S&P 500
1.66x
+44%
Healthcare
1.59x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-59%
Healthcare
14.2x
-56%
5Y Avg
9.1x
-31%
Price/FCF
6.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-68%
Healthcare
18.5x
-64%
5Y Avg
11.8x
-44%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Healthcare
2.6x
-78%
5Y Avg
1.0x
-44%
Dividend Yield
3.40%
S&P 500
1.91%
+78%
Healthcare
1.50%
+127%
5Y Avg
2.27%
+50%
| Metric | FMS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg FMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.6x | 18.8x-38% | 18.3x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.2x | 24.4x-50% | 22.1x-45% | 26.2x-53% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.39x | 1.66x+44% | 1.59x+50% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3x | 15.2x-59% | 14.2x-56% | 9.1x-31% |
| Price/FCF | 6.7x | 20.7x-68% | 18.5x-64% | 11.8x-44% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 2.6x-78% | 1.0x-44% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.40% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.27% |
FMS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFMS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FMS generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 9.1% margin — returns 8.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.72
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.4%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
5.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$562M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
551M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Treatment volume slowdown
Goldman Sachs expects treatment volume growth to fall below medium-term outlook in fiscal year 2026.
Medium
Phosphate binder reversal
Partial reversal of benefits from phosphate binders in fiscal year 2026 is anticipated to create headwinds.
Lower
Analyst downgrade risk
Recent downgrade by Goldman Sachs reflects concerns over near-term performance and growth trajectory.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FMS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong analyst price target
Wall Street analysts have a consensus twelve-month stock price forecast of $28.00 for Fresenius Medical Care, indicating potential upside.
Deep-value contrarian opportunity
Fresenius Medical Care is presented as a compelling deep-value, contrarian investment for long-term investors, especially after a significant share price decline.
Earnings growth potential
The company has shown 38% growth in 2025 adjusted earnings per share, with a stable profit outlook for 2026.
Transparent investor communications
Fresenius Medical Care provides extensive publications, financial calendars, and shareholder information, demonstrating strong corporate transparency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FMS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$23.59
52W Range Position
40%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.02
+17.8% from the low
52-Week High
$28.87
-18.3% from the high
1 Month
+6.17%
3 Month
+5.27%
YTD
+0.3%
1 Year
-12.4%
3Y CAGR
+0.2%
5Y CAGR
-10.7%
10Y CAGR
-5.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FMS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.6x
vs 12.5x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.8%
vs +6.8% median
-58% below peer median
Net Margin
4.9%
vs -2.0% median
+341% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FMS FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA | $13.0B | 11.6x | +2.8% | 4.9% | Hold | +18.7% |
DVA DVA DaVita Inc. | $13.3B | 14.0x | +8.5% | 5.6% | Hold | -2.7% |
FXN FXNC First National Corporation | $265M | 12.5x | +10.3% | 15.4% | Buy | -28.5% |
NKT NKTR Nektar Therapeutics | $1.2B | — | +5.0% | -284.2% | Buy | +145.3% |
BAX BAX Baxter International Inc. | $10.3B | 10.4x | +2.3% | -9.7% | Hold | +4.1% |
NVA NVA Nova Minerals Limited | $28M | — | — | — | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FMS Dividend and Capital Return
FMS returns 8.4% annually — 3.40% through dividends and 5.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.0%
Dividend Yield
3.40%
Payout Ratio
41.5%
How FMS Splits Its Return
Div 3.40%
Buyback 5.0%
Dividend 3.40%Buybacks 5.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$562M
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
551M
At 4.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.81 | +28.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $0.63 | +2.6% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | -12.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $0.71 | -14.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsFMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +18.7% from the current price of $24. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $24.
02What is the FMS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FMS is $28 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $28 (+18.7% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (+18.7%). The base case model target is $18.
03Is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock overvalued in 2026?
FMS trades at 11.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FMS in 2026 are: (1) Treatment volume slowdown — Goldman Sachs expects treatment volume growth to fall below medium-term outlook in fiscal year 2026. (2) Phosphate binder reversal — Partial reversal of benefits from phosphate binders in fiscal year 2026 is anticipated to create headwinds. (3) Analyst downgrade risk — Recent downgrade by Goldman Sachs reflects concerns over near-term performance and growth trajectory. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FMS will report consensus revenue of $19.9B (+2.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.60 (-6.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.5B in revenue.
06When does Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) report its next earnings?
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.62 and revenue of $5.6B. Over recent quarters, FMS has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA generate?
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.1%. FMS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.4% yield) and share repurchases ($562M TTM).