Upside case
Bull case
$371+91.3%
DVA would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
23
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 23 covering DVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$169
-13.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$187 – $371
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
DVA price targets
Three scenarios for where DVA stock could go
Current
~$194
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $194
Bear
$187
Base
$282
Bull
$371
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$282+45.5%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$187-3.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push DVA down roughly 3% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
DaVita Inc.
DVA · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
DaVita is a leading provider of kidney dialysis services for patients with chronic kidney failure. It generates revenue primarily from operating outpatient dialysis centers — which provide the bulk of its income — along with related lab services, home-based dialysis, and integrated care arrangements. The company's scale and network of over 2,800 U.S. centers create significant barriers to entry and operational efficiencies in a capital-intensive, regulated healthcare segment.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$13.8B
Net Income TTM
$781M
Net Margin
5.6%
DVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.95/$2.70
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.51/$3.17
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.40/$3.24
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.87/$2.33
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.95/$2.70 | +9.3% | $3.4B/$3.4B | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.51/$3.17 | -20.8% | $3.4B/$3.4B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.40/$3.24 | +4.9% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.87/$2.33 | +23.2% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.5B
+4.9% YoY
FY2
$15.3B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.87
— YoY
FY2
$13.84
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 10.8%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.33
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
DVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U S Dialysis And Related Lab Services
100.0%
+3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
U S Dialysis And Related Lab Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.6% YoY.
DVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $227 — implies +49.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
49.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DVA
20.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
19% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
DVA
20.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
8% discount
vs DVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.4x
vs
5Y Average
13.2x
+55% premium
Forward PE
13.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-28%
Healthcare
19.0x
-28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-19%
Healthcare
22.1x
-8%
5Y Avg
13.2x
+55%
PEG Ratio
2.46x
S&P 500
1.75x
+41%
Healthcare
1.52x
+62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-35%
Healthcare
14.1x
-30%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+10%
Price/FCF
9.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-54%
Healthcare
18.7x
-48%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+21%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Healthcare
2.8x
-67%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+10%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DVA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg DVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.7x | 19.1x-28% | 19.0x-28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.4x | 25.2x-19% | 22.1x | 13.2x+55% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.46x | 1.75x+41% | 1.52x+62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9x | 15.3x-35% | 14.1x-30% | 9.0x+10% |
| Price/FCF | 9.8x | 21.3x-54% | 18.7x-48% | 8.0x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 2.8x-67% | 0.8x+10% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
DVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDVA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DVA generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 10.8% margin — 10.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 14.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$758M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.6× FCF
~9.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
59.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
14.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
14.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
66M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Medicare Reimbursement Dependence
Approximately two-thirds of DaVita's U.S. sales are derived from Medicare reimbursement rates. Any changes or cuts to these rates pose a substantial risk to the company's revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Unfavorable Payer Mix
DaVita's profits are disproportionately driven by commercial insurers, who represent only 10% of patients treated. This creates a challenging environment that can hinder the company's ability to sustain profit margins.
High Risk
High Leverage
DaVita's reliance on debt makes it susceptible to changes in interest rates and its ability to service its debt obligations. This financial structure increases the risk of financial distress.
Medium
Earnings Volatility
DaVita has experienced year-over-year drops in its core performance indicators, even with share repurchases. This volatility complicates the forecasting of future earnings and may deter investors.
Medium
Healthcare Policy Changes
As a highly regulated business, DaVita is vulnerable to changes in healthcare policy, reimbursement rates, and evolving standards of care in the kidney treatment landscape. Such changes can significantly impact the company's financial health.
Medium
Cost Inflation
Ongoing cost inflation can negatively affect DaVita's profit margins. Rising operational costs may lead to reduced profitability if not managed effectively.
Lower
Competition
DaVita faces competition from other large dialysis providers, hospital systems, and emerging home-based care models. This competitive landscape can pressure its service offerings and patient retention.
Lower
Slowing Organic Trends
The company is experiencing a slowdown in its organic growth trends. This deceleration may impact its long-term growth prospects and investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Declining Mortality Rates for Elderly
For the first time in nearly five years, the death rate for the 85+ age group has declined, indicating a potential turning point. This trend suggests improved organic volume growth in dialysis treatments, which could lead to sustained earnings growth and a more resilient patient population post-pandemic.
Strong Market Position
DaVita commands a dominant position in the U.S. dialysis market with a 35% market share and over 3,000 facilities globally. This strong presence, supported by significant financial backing from Berkshire Hathaway, which owns approximately 45% of the company, enhances its financial stability.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
DaVita's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is considered attractive compared to the broader healthcare industry and its peers. Analysts suggest that the stock is trading significantly below its future cash flow value, indicating potential undervaluation.
Focus on Technology and AI Investments
The company is investing in technology and AI, alongside its Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) segment, to drive higher margins and free cash flow. Although IKC's growth has been modest, it has shown improved performance in value-based contracts.
Potential for Renewed Volume Growth
Despite challenges such as reimbursement pressures, the bull case suggests that these factors may be offset by the potential for renewed volume growth driven by strategic initiatives. This could lead to significant upside for the stock as the company navigates the evolving healthcare landscape.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$193.88
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.00
+92.0% from the low
52-Week High
$194.10
-0.1% from the high
1 Month
+29.15%
3 Month
+37.67%
YTD
+69.3%
1 Year
+35.9%
3Y CAGR
+29.5%
5Y CAGR
+9.3%
10Y CAGR
+9.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.7x
vs 16.4x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.9%
vs +7.6% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
5.6%
vs 1.8% median
+223% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DVA DVA DaVita Inc. | $12.8B | 13.7x | +4.9% | 5.6% | Hold | -13.0% |
FMS FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA | $11.7B | 10.2x | +1.1% | 5.0% | Hold | +33.3% |
FXN FXNC First National Corporation | $249M | 11.6x | +20.8% | — | Buy | -23.6% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $333.4B | 20.1x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +4.9% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $29.6B | 27.6x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | -0.1% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $27.3B | 16.4x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -7.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DVA Dividend and Capital Return
DVA returns 14.0% annually — null% through dividends and 14.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
14.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
14.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
14.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
66M
At 14.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
DaVita Inc. (DVA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $169, implying -13.0% from the current price of $194. The bear case scenario is $187 and the bull case is $371.
02What is the DVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DVA is $169 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (-2.0% from today), and the low-end target is $158 (-18.5%). The base case model target is $282.
03Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
DVA trades at 13.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DVA in 2026 are: (1) Medicare Reimbursement Dependence — Approximately two-thirds of DaVita's U. (2) Unfavorable Payer Mix — DaVita's profits are disproportionately driven by commercial insurers, who represent only 10% of patients treated. (3) High Leverage — DaVita's reliance on debt makes it susceptible to changes in interest rates and its ability to service its debt obligations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is DaVita Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DVA will report consensus revenue of $14.5B (+4.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.87 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $15.3B in revenue.
06When does DaVita Inc. (DVA) report its next earnings?
DaVita Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.33 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, DVA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does DaVita Inc. generate?
DaVita Inc. (DVA) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.8%. DVA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.8B TTM).