Upside case
Bull case
$411+97.5%
DVA would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
23
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 23 covering DVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$202
-2.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$196 – $411
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.3B
DVA price targets
Three scenarios for where DVA stock could go
Current
~$208
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $208
Bear
$196
Base
$312
Bull
$411
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$312+49.9%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$196-5.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push DVA down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
DaVita Inc.
DVA · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesDecember year-end
DaVita is a leading provider of kidney dialysis services for patients with chronic kidney failure. It generates revenue primarily from operating outpatient dialysis centers — which provide the bulk of its income — along with related lab services, home-based dialysis, and integrated care arrangements. The company's scale and network of over 2,800 U.S. centers create significant barriers to entry and operational efficiencies in a capital-intensive, regulated healthcare segment.
Market Cap
$13.3B
Revenue TTM
$13.8B
Net Income TTM
$781M
Net Margin
5.6%
DVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.95/$2.70
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.51/$3.17
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.40/$3.24
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.87/$2.41
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.95/$2.70 | +9.3% | $3.4B/$3.4B | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.51/$3.17 | -20.8% | $3.4B/$3.4B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.40/$3.24 | +4.9% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.87/$2.41 | +19.1% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.0B
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$16.0B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.29
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$14.20
+6.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 10.8%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.84
Expected Revenue
$3.5B
DVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U S Dialysis And Related Lab Services
100.0%
+3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
U S Dialysis And Related Lab Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.6% YoY.
DVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $264 — implies +27.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
27.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DVA
21.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
11% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
DVA
21.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
In line with benchmark
vs DVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.9x
vs
5Y Average
13.2x
+66% premium
Forward PE
14.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-26%
Healthcare
18.3x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-11%
Healthcare
22.1x
-1%
5Y Avg
13.2x
+66%
PEG Ratio
2.64x
S&P 500
1.66x
+59%
Healthcare
1.59x
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Healthcare
14.2x
-29%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+13%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-51%
Healthcare
18.5x
-45%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+27%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-68%
Healthcare
2.6x
-63%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+15%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DVA | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg DVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.0x | 18.8x-26% | 18.3x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.9x | 24.4x-11% | 22.1x | 13.2x+66% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.64x | 1.66x+59% | 1.59x+66% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-33% | 14.2x-29% | 9.0x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 20.7x-51% | 18.5x-45% | 8.0x+27% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-68% | 2.6x-63% | 0.8x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
DVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDVA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DVA generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 10.8% margin — 10.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 13.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$758M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.6× FCF
~9.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
59.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
13.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
13.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
64M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageDVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Legal and regulatory risks
DaVita faces a proposed class-action lawsuit alleging misconduct, which could lead to financial penalties and reputational damage.
Medium
Market valuation concerns
Despite appearing undervalued based on DCF analysis, market price discrepancies may reflect underlying risks or investor skepticism.
Lower
Operational execution
The company's extensive network of dialysis centers requires consistent operational performance to maintain profitability and patient care standards.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Rival providers like Fresenius Medical Care pose competitive threats, potentially impacting DaVita's market share and pricing power.
Lower
Long-term growth uncertainty
While long-term price forecasts are optimistic, external factors like healthcare policy changes could disrupt growth trajectories.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Improving mortality rates
The bullish thesis highlights improving mortality rates as a key driver for DaVita's growth and sustainability in dialysis services.
Organic volume growth
The company has potential for sustained organic volume growth, supporting long-term revenue expansion.
Durable growth outlook
2026 outlook exceeded Street expectations, shifting the narrative from recovery to durable growth, reinforcing investor confidence.
Scale advantages in kidney care
DaVita benefits from significant scale advantages in the kidney care market, enhancing operational efficiency and competitive positioning.
Stable demand profile
Chronic disease prevalence ensures a stable demand for DaVita's services, providing predictable revenue streams.
Long-term reimbursement frameworks
Favorable reimbursement frameworks offer earnings predictability, reducing financial volatility for the company.
Strong stock performance
DaVita's stock has surged over 70% in 2026, driven by consistent beat-and-raise performances, attracting investor interest.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$207.91
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$101.00
+105.9% from the low
52-Week High
$213.44
-2.6% from the high
1 Month
+4.21%
3 Month
+39.70%
YTD
+81.6%
1 Year
+53.1%
3Y CAGR
+28.5%
5Y CAGR
+11.3%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.0x
vs 17.5x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
vs +7.3% median
+17% above peer median
Net Margin
5.6%
vs 2.7% median
+111% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DVA DVA DaVita Inc. | $13.3B | 14.0x | +8.5% | 5.6% | Hold | -2.7% |
FMS FMS Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA | $13.0B | 11.6x | +2.8% | 4.9% | Hold | +18.7% |
FXN FXNC First National Corporation | $265M | 12.5x | +10.3% | 15.4% | Buy | -28.5% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $363.9B | 21.8x | +5.7% | 2.7% | Buy | +6.2% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $43.3B | 40.8x | +14.0% | 0.8% | Hold | -17.2% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $30.1B | 17.5x | +7.3% | -3.3% | Buy | -3.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DVA Dividend and Capital Return
DVA returns 13.4% annually — null% through dividends and 13.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
13.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
13.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
13.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
64M
At 13.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
DaVita Inc. (DVA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $202, implying -2.7% from the current price of $208. The bear case scenario is $196 and the bull case is $411.
02What is the DVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DVA is $202 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+5.8% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (-8.6%). The base case model target is $312.
03Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
DVA trades at 14.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DVA in 2026 are: (1) Legal and regulatory risks — DaVita faces a proposed class-action lawsuit alleging misconduct, which could lead to financial penalties and reputational damage. (2) Market valuation concerns — Despite appearing undervalued based on DCF analysis, market price discrepancies may reflect underlying risks or investor skepticism. (3) Competitive pressures — Rival providers like Fresenius Medical Care pose competitive threats, potentially impacting DaVita's market share and pricing power. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is DaVita Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DVA will report consensus revenue of $15.0B (+8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.29 (+17.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.0B in revenue.
06When does DaVita Inc. (DVA) report its next earnings?
DaVita Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $3.84 and revenue of $3.5B. Over recent quarters, DVA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does DaVita Inc. generate?
DaVita Inc. (DVA) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.8%. DVA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.8B TTM).