Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing FTAI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 18 covering FTAI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$298
+4.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.2B
FTAI price targets
Three scenarios for where FTAI stock could go
Current
~$285
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $285
Bear
$6
Base
$699
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$699+145.2%
At 95x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-97.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 38x multiple contraction could push FTAI down roughly 98% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
FTAI · NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesDecember year-end
FTAI Aviation is an aviation equipment lessor and aerospace products manufacturer that owns and manages commercial aircraft, engines, and related assets. It generates revenue primarily through aircraft and engine leasing (roughly 70% of revenue) and secondarily through aerospace product manufacturing, repair, and sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in aviation asset management and its vertically integrated model that combines leasing with proprietary aerospace manufacturing capabilities.
Market Cap
$29.2B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$537M
Net Margin
18.9%
FTAI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.29
Revenue
$676M/$569M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.21
Revenue
$667M/$659M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.08/$1.24
Revenue
$662M/$693M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.50
Revenue
$831M/$750M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.57/$1.29 | +21.7% | $676M/$569M | +18.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.10/$1.21 | -9.1% | $667M/$659M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.08/$1.24 | -12.9% | $662M/$693M | -4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.29/$1.50 | -14.0% | $831M/$750M | +10.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+32.2% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+36.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.68
+49.2% YoY
FY2
$11.28
+46.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.4B
FCF Margin: -48.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FTAI beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FTAI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $454M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Equipment Leasing Revenues
51.8%
-7.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
49.7%
+103.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Equipment Leasing Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 51.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.9% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 49.7%, up 103.0% YoY.
FTAI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $121 — implies -49.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FTAI
62.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+146% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FTAI
62.0x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+140% premium
vs FTAI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
62.0x
vs
5Y Average
32.4x
+91% premium
Forward PE
38.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+104%
Industrials
20.8x
+87%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
62.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+146%
Industrials
25.9x
+140%
5Y Avg
32.4x
+91%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
32.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+113%
Industrials
13.9x
+134%
5Y Avg
18.0x
+81%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Industrials
20.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
11.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+272%
Industrials
1.6x
+634%
5Y Avg
5.9x
+98%
Dividend Yield
0.43%
S&P 500
1.88%
-77%
Industrials
1.24%
-65%
5Y Avg
3.38%
-87%
| Metric | FTAI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FTAI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.8x | 19.1x+104% | 20.8x+87% | — |
| Trailing PE | 62.0x | 25.2x+146% | 25.9x+140% | 32.4x+91% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.5x | 15.3x+113% | 13.9x+134% | 18.0x+81% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 20.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 11.7x | 3.1x+272% | 1.6x+634% | 5.9x+98% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 3.38% |
FTAI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFTAI Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FTAI 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+47.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
28.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-48.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$300M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
181.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (16.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$124M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.23
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
103M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageFTAI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Reduced demand for air travel due to economic slowdowns can negatively impact lease agreements and overall revenue. This could lead to significant declines in FTAI's financial performance.
High Risk
Geopolitical Tensions
International travel disruptions caused by geopolitical instability pose risks to future profitability. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East could exacerbate these issues.
High Risk
Lessee Defaults
Investors are concerned about potential lessee defaults, especially ahead of earnings reports. This risk could lead to substantial financial losses for FTAI.
High Risk
Aggressive Accounting Allegations
FTAI has faced allegations of aggressive accounting and financial presentation from short-seller reports, contributing to fragile investor sentiment. This could impact stock performance and investor confidence.
Medium
Fleet Readiness
Maintaining the operational readiness of its fleet is crucial, and regulatory changes within the aviation sector could impose additional requirements. This may impact efficiency and increase operational costs.
Medium
Competition
The aviation and offshore equipment asset market is highly competitive, with traditional and non-traditional players vying for opportunities. Increased competition could pressure margins and market share.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
FTAI's dividend policy has faced scrutiny due to a negative payout ratio, raising concerns about its sustainability. Investors may react negatively if dividends are cut or suspended.
Lower
Stock Volatility
FTAI's stock exhibits high volatility, with a beta of over 2.0, indicating it is more sensitive to market movements than the overall market. This could lead to unpredictable stock price fluctuations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FTAI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Business Model and Market Position
FTAI Aviation operates a specialized industrial compounder model within the aerospace aftermarket, focusing on the maintenance, repair, and exchange of aircraft engines like the CFM56 and V2500. The vertically integrated MRO platform provides cost advantages and scalability, enhancing its competitive edge.
Proprietary Parts and Cost Advantages
The company has an exclusive partnership for FAA-approved PMA hot-section parts for CFM56 and V2500 engines, leading to significant cost savings per shop visit. This structural profitability advantage is challenging for competitors to replicate, positioning FTAI favorably in the market.
Growth Initiatives and Diversification
FTAI's Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) enables asset-light expansion through off-balance-sheet aircraft ownership, generating recurring MRE demand and fee income. Additionally, the FTAI Power initiative repurposes retired CFM56 engines into gas turbines for AI-focused data centers, with the first product expected by Q4 2026.
Financial Performance and Outlook
FTAI has shown strong revenue growth, with a 44.53% increase year-over-year in 2025, reaching $2.507 billion. The Aerospace Products Adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach $1.05 billion in 2026, reflecting robust financial health and strong free cash flow generation.
Management and Aligned Interests
CEO Joseph Adams holds a significant personal stake in the company, aligning his interests with shareholders. Despite past concerns from a short-seller report, multiple banks and an internal audit have deemed those claims unfounded, reinforcing confidence in management.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FTAI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$285.01
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$97.50
+192.3% from the low
52-Week High
$323.51
-11.9% from the high
1 Month
+15.47%
3 Month
+4.55%
YTD
+35.5%
1 Year
+163.9%
3Y CAGR
+118.2%
5Y CAGR
+64.3%
10Y CAGR
+42.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FTAI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.8x
vs 17.2x median
+125% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.2%
vs +12.6% median
+156% above peer median
Net Margin
18.9%
vs 21.6% median
-12% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FTA FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. | $29.2B | 38.8x | +32.2% | 18.9% | Buy | +4.4% |
AL AL Air Lease Corporation | $7.3B | 12.8x | +8.6% | 36.1% | Buy | 0.0% |
AER AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | $25.2B | 8.8x | +5.2% | 48.4% | Buy | +9.2% |
GAT GATX GATX Corporation | $7.1B | 19.9x | +14.6% | 18.3% | Buy | +6.2% |
WLF WLFC Willis Lease Finance Corporation | $1.8B | 17.2x | +17.9% | 15.8% | Buy | — |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $69.7B | 31.8x | +12.6% | 21.6% | Buy | +31.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FTAI Dividend and Capital Return
FTAI returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.51% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.51%
Payout Ratio
25.6%
How FTAI Splits Its Return
Div 0.51%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.51%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.23
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-7.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-3.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$124M
Estimated Shares Retired
435.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
103M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.95 | -20.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| 2024 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $1.20 | +0.5% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $1.19 | +5.9% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsFTAI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $298, implying +4.4% from the current price of $285.
02What is the FTAI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FTAI is $298 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $350 (+22.8% from today), and the low-end target is $225 (-21.1%). The base case model target is $699.
03Is FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) stock overvalued in 2026?
FTAI trades at 38.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FTAI in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — Reduced demand for air travel due to economic slowdowns can negatively impact lease agreements and overall revenue. (2) Geopolitical Tensions — International travel disruptions caused by geopolitical instability pose risks to future profitability. (3) Lessee Defaults — Investors are concerned about potential lessee defaults, especially ahead of earnings reports. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is FTAI Aviation Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FTAI will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+32.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.68 (+49.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FTAI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does FTAI Aviation Ltd. generate?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) had a free cash outflow of $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 48.8%. FTAI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($124M TTM).