Upside case
Bull case
$190+31.3%
AER would need investors to value it at roughly 11x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering AER
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$165
+13.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$91 – $190
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.2B
AER price targets
Three scenarios for where AER stock could go
Current
~$145
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $145
Bear
$91
Base
$145
Bull
$190
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$145-0.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AER — at roughly 8x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$91-37.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push AER down roughly 37% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AerCap Holdings N.V.
AER · NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesDecember year-end
AerCap Holdings is the world's largest aircraft leasing company, owning and leasing commercial jet aircraft to airlines globally. It generates revenue primarily through aircraft lease rentals — which account for the vast majority of its income — supplemented by aircraft sales, trading, and asset management services. Its competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and diversified fleet, which provides superior purchasing power, risk diversification, and the ability to place aircraft with airlines worldwide.
Market Cap
$24.2B
Revenue TTM
$8.1B
Net Income TTM
$3.9B
Net Margin
48.4%
AER Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+26.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.83/$2.68
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.97/$3.10
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.95/$3.40
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.39/$3.72
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.83/$2.68 | +5.6% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.97/$3.10 | +60.3% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.95/$3.40 | +16.2% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.39/$3.72 | +44.9% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +8.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.7B
+7.5% YoY
FY2
$9.2B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.54
-26.3% YoY
FY2
$18.07
+3.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$405M
FCF Margin: 5.0%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.00
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
AER beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AER Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $50M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management Service
100.0%
+32.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Management Service is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 32.3% YoY.
AER Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $309 — implies +113.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
113.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AER
6.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
72% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AER
6.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
73% discount
vs AER 5Y Avg P/E
Today
6.8x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
11% discount
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-55%
Industrials
21.2x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
6.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-72%
Industrials
25.6x
-73%
5Y Avg
7.7x
-11%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-37%
Industrials
13.9x
-31%
5Y Avg
13.1x
-27%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Industrials
20.0x
—
5Y Avg
8.0x
—
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-4%
Industrials
1.6x
+89%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+26%
Dividend Yield
0.75%
S&P 500
1.91%
-61%
Industrials
1.21%
-38%
5Y Avg
0.76%
-0%
| Metric | AER | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 18.8x-55% | 21.2x-60% | — |
| Trailing PE | 6.8x | 24.4x-72% | 25.6x-73% | 7.7x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6x | 15.2x-37% | 13.9x-31% | 13.1x-27% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 20.0x | 8.0x |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+89% | 2.4x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.76% |
AER trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAER Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for AER are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
45.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
48.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$23.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$405M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$42.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
103.9× FCF
~103.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (5.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
5.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
167M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAER Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Lease rate pressure
Weaker lease rates could compress margins and negatively impact financial performance.
High Risk
Supply pressure
Delivery-driven supply pressure may lead to oversupply and reduced pricing power.
High Risk
Funding cost risk
Rising funding costs could increase expenses and squeeze profitability.
Medium
Asset impairment risk
Potential asset impairments may lead to write-downs and lower earnings.
Medium
Stock price downside
Bearish factors could push the stock toward the analyst low target of 126.64.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AER Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Global aircraft shortage
The bullish thesis highlights a global aircraft shortage, which benefits AerCap as a leading aircraft lessor.
Undervalued assets
AerCap's assets are considered undervalued, presenting a potential upside for investors.
Share buyback support
The company's share buyback program provides additional support to the stock price.
Strong financial performance
AerCap reported higher sales, revenue, and net income in Q1 2026, indicating robust financial health.
Stock appreciation potential
The stock has already appreciated significantly since the bullish thesis was introduced, suggesting continued growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AER Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$145.06
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.65
+37.3% from the low
52-Week High
$154.94
-6.4% from the high
1 Month
+3.77%
3 Month
+6.83%
YTD
+0.3%
1 Year
+26.2%
3Y CAGR
+33.5%
5Y CAGR
+22.2%
10Y CAGR
+14.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AER vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 16.1x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.5%
vs +9.3% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
48.4%
vs 17.9% median
+171% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AER AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | $24.2B | 8.4x | +7.5% | 48.4% | Buy | +13.7% |
AL AL Air Lease Corporation | $7.3B | 12.8x | +9.3% | 36.1% | Buy | 0.0% |
FLY FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. | $5.0B | — | +15.0% | -181.1% | Buy | +38.0% |
FTA FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. | $28.3B | 40.2x | +12.6% | 18.9% | Buy | +14.0% |
GAT GATX GATX Corporation | $6.3B | 17.6x | +9.2% | 17.9% | Buy | +24.2% |
WLF WLFC Willis Lease Finance Corporation | $1.6B | 14.6x | +9.0% | 15.8% | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AER Dividend and Capital Return
AER returns 0.8% total yield, led by a 0.75% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.75%
Payout Ratio
5.1%
How AER Splits Its Return
Div 0.75%
Dividend 0.75%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
167M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.08 | +44.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $0.75 | — | 8.2% | 8.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsAER Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $165, implying +13.7% from the current price of $145. The bear case scenario is $91 and the bull case is $190.
02What is the AER stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AER is $165 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $175 (+20.6% from today), and the low-end target is $155 (+6.9%). The base case model target is $145.
03Is AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) stock overvalued in 2026?
AER trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AER in 2026 are: (1) Lease rate pressure — Weaker lease rates could compress margins and negatively impact financial performance. (2) Supply pressure — Delivery-driven supply pressure may lead to oversupply and reduced pricing power. (3) Funding cost risk — Rising funding costs could increase expenses and squeeze profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AerCap Holdings N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AER will report consensus revenue of $8.7B (+7.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.54 (-26.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.2B in revenue.
06When does AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) report its next earnings?
AerCap Holdings N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $4.00 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, AER has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AerCap Holdings N.V. generate?
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) generated $405M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.0%. AER returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).