Upside case
Bull case
$158+67.0%
CSCO would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
73
analysts
37 bullish · 1 bearish · 73 covering CSCO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
37
Hold
35
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$97
+2.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$81 – $158
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
73
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $373.4B
CSCO price targets
Three scenarios for where CSCO stock could go
Current
~$94
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $94
Bear
$81
Base
$135
Bull
$158
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$135+43.2%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$81-14.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push CSCO down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentJuly year-end
Cisco Systems is a global networking hardware and software company that provides the infrastructure for internet connectivity and enterprise communications. It generates revenue primarily through networking hardware sales — switches, routers, and wireless products — along with growing software and subscription services for security, collaboration, and observability. The company's moat lies in its entrenched position in enterprise networking infrastructure, where its products form the backbone of corporate networks worldwide, creating significant switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$373.4B
Revenue TTM
$59.1B
Net Income TTM
$11.1B
Net Margin
18.8%
CSCO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.96/$0.92
Revenue
$14.1B/$14.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.98
Revenue
$14.7B/$14.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.98
Revenue
$14.9B/$14.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.04/$1.02
Revenue
$15.3B/$15.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.96/$0.92 | +4.7% | $14.1B/$14.0B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.99/$0.98 | +1.3% | $14.7B/$14.6B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.00/$0.98 | +1.8% | $14.9B/$14.8B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04/$1.02 | +2.0% | $15.3B/$15.1B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$61.6B
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$64.5B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.51
+26.4% YoY
FY2
$3.65
+4.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.8B
FCF Margin: 21.8%
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.04
Expected Revenue
$15.5B
CSCO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CSCO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $63.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Networking
44.5%
-3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.4%
+5.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Networking is the largest disclosed segment at 44.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.4%, up 5.3% YoY.
CSCO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $93 — implies +1.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CSCO
37.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+47% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CSCO
37.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+38% premium
vs CSCO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.0x
vs
5Y Average
20.2x
+83% premium
Forward PE
22.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+19%
Technology
22.1x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+47%
Technology
26.7x
+38%
5Y Avg
20.2x
+83%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+77%
Technology
17.5x
+54%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+77%
Price/FCF
28.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+33%
Technology
19.5x
+44%
5Y Avg
16.4x
+71%
Price/Sales
6.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+111%
Technology
2.4x
+170%
5Y Avg
4.1x
+60%
Dividend Yield
1.71%
S&P 500
1.87%
-9%
Technology
1.16%
+47%
5Y Avg
2.89%
-41%
| Metric | CSCO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CSCO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.7x | 19.1x+19% | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.0x | 25.1x+47% | 26.7x+38% | 20.2x+83% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9x | 15.2x+77% | 17.5x+54% | 15.2x+77% |
| Price/FCF | 28.1x | 21.1x+33% | 19.5x+44% | 16.4x+71% |
| Price/Sales | 6.6x | 3.1x+111% | 2.4x+170% | 4.1x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.71% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 2.89% |
CSCO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCSCO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CSCO generates $12.8B in free cash flow at a 21.8% margin — 13.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$59.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.78
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$20.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$7.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
63.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCSCO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Cisco has faced exploitation of zero‑day vulnerabilities by state‑backed groups; AI‑driven cyberattacks are increasing in sophistication, threatening customer trust and requiring rapid patching. Potential loss of key accounts and regulatory fines could materially hit earnings.
High Risk
Acquisition Integration Risk
The $28 billion Splunk acquisition carries risks of cultural clashes, talent drain, and slower‑than‑expected ROI. Delays in realizing synergies could depress revenue growth and erode margin expectations.
High Risk
AI Market Competition
Cisco’s core networking revenue is declining while competitors like Nvidia and Arista gain market share in data‑center AI networking. Loss of AI infrastructure orders could reduce top‑line growth and pressure pricing power.
High Risk
AI Demand Volatility
Cisco’s bull case is heavily tied to fast‑growing AI infrastructure; a slowdown or normalization in AI demand, or shifts to competitors, could prompt a reassessment of its valuation premium and reduce future revenue projections.
High Risk
Software Transition Risk
Cisco’s shift to software and subscription models, accelerated by Splunk, faces execution risk; if the integration fails to deliver cross‑platform value or if software offerings do not scale, growth narrative could be undermined.
Medium
Cost and Margin Risk
Rising memory chip costs linked to AI infrastructure demand have squeezed profitability; Cisco is attempting to offset this through price increases and contract renegotiations, but margin pressure remains a concern.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CSCO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Order & Revenue Growth
Cisco’s product orders rose 13% YoY, surpassing market expectations, while revenue grew 8% YoY, driven by AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions. Networking product orders have increased 20% for six consecutive quarters, and the company reported record quarterly revenue of $15.3 billion with a 31% jump in GAAP EPS in February 2026.
AI & Cybersecurity Expansion
Cisco is actively positioning itself in high‑demand AI and cybersecurity sectors, investing in Elon Musk’s xAI and pursuing potential cybersecurity acquisitions. The firm is also reimagining security for the agentic workforce and partnering with NVIDIA to make AI easier to deploy and secure.
Consistent Dividend Growth
Cisco has increased its quarterly dividend, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders, and has a history of raising dividends for 15 consecutive years.
Projected Earnings Momentum
Revenue growth is projected at 5.4% per annum, with earnings expected to grow 10.6% annually. The trailing twelve‑month net profit margin stands at 18.8%, and the forward P/E ratio is around 17‑19, indicating attractive valuation relative to industry averages.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CSCO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$94.30
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.58
+61.0% from the low
52-Week High
$94.72
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+17.24%
3 Month
+14.50%
YTD
+24.0%
1 Year
+59.0%
3Y CAGR
+26.8%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+13.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CSCO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.7x
vs 48.1x median
-53% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.2%
vs +11.7% median
-64% below peer median
Net Margin
18.8%
vs 1.3% median
+1343% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $373.4B | 22.7x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.3% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $39.9B | 12.5x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -4.4% |
ANE ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $214.3B | 48.1x | +30.4% | 38.3% | Buy | +9.4% |
NTG NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | $701M | 128.1x | -3.5% | -5.8% | Hold | +40.5% |
EXT EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $3.2B | 23.2x | +2.0% | 1.3% | Hold | +11.8% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $77.1B | 88.6x | +15.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -38.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CSCO Dividend and Capital Return
CSCO returns 3.6% annually — 1.71% through dividends and 1.9% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
1.71%
Payout Ratio
63.2%
How CSCO Splits Its Return
Div 1.71%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 1.71%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
2.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$7.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
77M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.0B
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +2.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $1.59 | +2.6% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
| 2023 | $1.55 | +2.6% | 2.3% | 5.2% |
| 2022 | $1.51 | +2.7% | 4.4% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCSCO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 73 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 35 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $97, implying +2.3% from the current price of $94. The bear case scenario is $81 and the bull case is $158.
02What is the CSCO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CSCO is $97 based on 73 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+6.0% from today), and the low-end target is $91 (-3.5%). The base case model target is $135.
03Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock overvalued in 2026?
CSCO trades at 22.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CSCO in 2026 are: (1) Cybersecurity Threats — Cisco has faced exploitation of zero‑day vulnerabilities by state‑backed groups; AI‑driven cyberattacks are increasing in sophistication, threatening customer trust and requiring rapid patching. (2) Acquisition Integration Risk — The $28 billion Splunk acquisition carries risks of cultural clashes, talent drain, and slower‑than‑expected ROI. (3) AI Market Competition — Cisco’s core networking revenue is declining while competitors like Nvidia and Arista gain market share in data‑center AI networking. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cisco Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CSCO will report consensus revenue of $61.6B (+4.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.51 (+26.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $64.5B in revenue.
06When does Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) report its next earnings?
Cisco Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $15.5B. Over recent quarters, CSCO has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cisco Systems, Inc. generate?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) generated $12.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.8%. CSCO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($7.2B TTM).