Upside case
Bull case
$243+103.3%
CSCO would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
73
analysts
38 bullish · 1 bearish · 73 covering CSCO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
34
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$123
+3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$116 – $243
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
73
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $471.2B
CSCO price targets
Three scenarios for where CSCO stock could go
Current
~$120
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $120
Bear
$116
Base
$184
Bull
$243
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$184+54.3%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$116-2.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push CSCO down roughly 3% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentJuly year-end
Cisco Systems is a global networking hardware and software company that provides the infrastructure for internet connectivity and enterprise communications. It generates revenue primarily through networking hardware sales — switches, routers, and wireless products — along with growing software and subscription services for security, collaboration, and observability. The company's moat lies in its entrenched position in enterprise networking infrastructure, where its products form the backbone of corporate networks worldwide, creating significant switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$471.2B
Revenue TTM
$60.7B
Net Income TTM
$12.0B
Net Margin
19.7%
CSCO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.98
Revenue
$14.7B/$14.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.98
Revenue
$14.9B/$14.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.04/$1.02
Revenue
$15.3B/$15.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.06/$1.03
Revenue
$15.8B/$15.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.99/$0.98 | +1.3% | $14.7B/$14.6B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.00/$0.98 | +1.8% | $14.9B/$14.8B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04/$1.02 | +2.0% | $15.3B/$15.1B | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.06/$1.03 | +2.9% | $15.8B/$15.6B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$64.6B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$68.7B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.71
+23.7% YoY
FY2
$4.10
+10.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.6B
FCF Margin: 20.8%
Next Earnings
August 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.17
Expected Revenue
$16.8B
CSCO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CSCO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $56.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Networking
50.0%
-3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.4%
+5.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Networking is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.4%, up 5.3% YoY.
CSCO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $248 — implies +107.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
107.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CSCO
46.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+92% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CSCO
46.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+62% premium
vs CSCO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.9x
vs
5Y Average
20.2x
+132% premium
Forward PE
28.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+49%
Technology
22.3x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+92%
Technology
29.0x
+62%
5Y Avg
20.2x
+132%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+121%
Technology
16.6x
+102%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+121%
Price/FCF
35.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+71%
Technology
19.2x
+85%
5Y Avg
16.4x
+117%
Price/Sales
8.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+169%
Technology
2.4x
+241%
5Y Avg
4.1x
+102%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
S&P 500
1.91%
-30%
Technology
1.11%
+22%
5Y Avg
2.89%
-53%
| Metric | CSCO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CSCO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.0x | 18.8x+49% | 22.3x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.9x | 24.4x+92% | 29.0x+62% | 20.2x+132% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.6x | 15.2x+121% | 16.6x+102% | 15.2x+121% |
| Price/FCF | 35.5x | 20.7x+71% | 19.2x+85% | 16.4x+117% |
| Price/Sales | 8.3x | 3.1x+169% | 2.4x+241% | 4.1x+102% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 2.89% |
CSCO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCSCO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CSCO generates $12.6B in free cash flow at a 20.8% margin — 13.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$60.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$7.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
63.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCSCO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Margin Pressure
Rising memory costs and other factors are putting pressure on Cisco's margins, potentially limiting stock price growth.
High Risk
Transition Execution Risk
Cisco faces challenges in executing its transition to software and security solutions, which could impact future performance.
Medium
Order Growth Uncertainty
Negative year-over-year product order growth in 2023-2024 due to excess inventory burn-down poses a risk to revenue recovery.
Medium
AI Dependence Risk
The company's reliance on large AI orders introduces volatility and execution risk in its growth strategy.
Medium
Competitive Pressures
Increased competition in networking, security, and AI could erode Cisco's market share and profitability.
Lower
Restructuring Challenges
Ongoing restructuring efforts may face execution hurdles, impacting operational efficiency and financial performance.
Lower
Integration Risks
Acquisitions and new technology integrations could disrupt operations or fail to deliver expected synergies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CSCO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI demand surge
Bullish analysts highlight AI-driven demand as a key growth catalyst, potentially driving CSCO toward $95–$100.
Splunk acquisition payoff
The Splunk platform integration is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth and execution momentum.
Record fiscal performance
Exceptional Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion underscores strong operational execution and financial health.
AI-led transformation
Cisco's focus on AI-driven innovation is fueling software revenue growth and market leadership.
Growing software revenues
The company's expanding software segment is a key driver of its bullish thesis and stock appreciation.
Technology leadership
Cisco's comprehensive product portfolio in networking, security, and data center technologies reinforces its market dominance.
Inclusive future initiatives
Programs like Cisco Networking Academy are shaping the future workforce, enhancing long-term growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CSCO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$119.54
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$65.38
+82.8% from the low
52-Week High
$130.37
-8.3% from the high
1 Month
+0.56%
3 Month
+54.05%
YTD
+57.2%
1 Year
+81.6%
3Y CAGR
+32.4%
5Y CAGR
+18.1%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CSCO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.0x
vs 46.7x median
-40% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs +8.3% median
-24% below peer median
Net Margin
19.7%
vs 3.9% median
+404% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $471.2B | 28.0x | +6.4% | 19.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $62.8B | 13.9x | +8.3% | 3.9% | Hold | +46.1% |
ANE ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $213.6B | 46.7x | +14.6% | 38.3% | Buy | +9.3% |
NTG NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | $630M | 115.3x | 0.0% | -5.8% | Hold | +56.2% |
EXT EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $4.2B | 30.4x | +5.9% | 1.3% | Buy | +7.3% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CSCO Dividend and Capital Return
CSCO returns 2.9% annually — 1.35% through dividends and 1.5% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
Payout Ratio
63.2%
How CSCO Splits Its Return
Div 1.35%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 1.35%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
2.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$7.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
60M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.9B
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.63 | +2.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $1.59 | +2.6% | 3.5% | 6.8% |
| 2023 | $1.55 | +2.6% | 2.3% | 5.2% |
| 2022 | $1.51 | +2.7% | 4.4% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCSCO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 73 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $123, implying +3.1% from the current price of $120. The bear case scenario is $116 and the bull case is $243.
02What is the CSCO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CSCO is $123 based on 73 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $137 (+14.6% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-16.3%). The base case model target is $184.
03Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock overvalued in 2026?
CSCO trades at 28.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CSCO in 2026 are: (1) Margin Pressure — Rising memory costs and other factors are putting pressure on Cisco's margins, potentially limiting stock price growth. (2) Transition Execution Risk — Cisco faces challenges in executing its transition to software and security solutions, which could impact future performance. (3) Order Growth Uncertainty — Negative year-over-year product order growth in 2023-2024 due to excess inventory burn-down poses a risk to revenue recovery. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cisco Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CSCO will report consensus revenue of $64.6B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.71 (+23.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $68.7B in revenue.
06When does Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) report its next earnings?
Cisco Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-12. Consensus expects EPS of $1.17 and revenue of $16.8B. Over recent quarters, CSCO has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cisco Systems, Inc. generate?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) generated $12.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.8%. CSCO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($7.2B TTM).