Upside case
Bull case
$203+72.8%
CHKP would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
63
analysts
28 bullish · 5 bearish · 63 covering CHKP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
30
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$154
+30.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$95 – $203
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
63
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
CHKP price targets
Three scenarios for where CHKP stock could go
Current
~$118
Confidence
83 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $118
Bear
$95
Base
$144
Bull
$203
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$144+22.1%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$95-19.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push CHKP down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
CHKP · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Check Point Software Technologies is a cybersecurity company that develops and sells a comprehensive suite of security solutions for networks, endpoints, cloud environments, and mobile devices. It generates revenue primarily through software license sales and subscription services — including security gateways, threat prevention technologies, and cloud security offerings — along with technical support and professional services. The company's key advantage is its integrated Check Point Infinity Architecture, which provides unified protection across multiple attack vectors and environments through a single management console.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
38.4%
CHKP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.37/$2.36
Revenue
$665M/$662M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.94/$2.45
Revenue
$678M/$673M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.40/$2.77
Revenue
$745M/$746M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.42
Revenue
$668M/$673M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.37/$2.36 | +0.4% | $665M/$662M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.94/$2.45 | +60.8% | $678M/$673M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.40/$2.77 | +22.7% | $745M/$746M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.42 | +3.3% | $668M/$673M | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.9B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$3.0B
+6.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.65
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$11.75
+10.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 47.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CHKP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CHKP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Security Subscriptions
37.2%
+10.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA
43.1%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Security Subscriptions is the largest disclosed segment at 37.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.4% YoY.
EMEA is the largest reported region at 43.1%, up 4.8% YoY.
CHKP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $274 — implies +139.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
139.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CHKP
12.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
51% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CHKP
12.2x
vs
Technology
26.7x
54% discount
vs CHKP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.2x
vs
5Y Average
21.0x
42% discount
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Technology
22.1x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-51%
Technology
26.7x
-54%
5Y Avg
21.0x
-42%
PEG Ratio
1.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
-29%
Technology
1.52x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-12%
Technology
17.5x
-23%
5Y Avg
19.2x
-30%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-52%
Technology
19.5x
-48%
5Y Avg
16.6x
-39%
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+44%
Technology
2.4x
+84%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-40%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CHKP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CHKP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 22.1x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.2x | 25.1x-51% | 26.7x-54% | 21.0x-42% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.22x | 1.72x-29% | 1.52x-20% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5x | 15.2x-12% | 17.5x-23% | 19.2x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 21.1x-52% | 19.5x-48% | 16.6x-39% |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+44% | 2.4x+84% | 7.5x-40% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
CHKP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCHKP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CHKP generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 47.5% margin — 23.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
85.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
38.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
47.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$172M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
11.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
104M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCHKP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Top-Line Growth Stagnation
Check Point has historically prioritized margin preservation over aggressive market share acquisition, leading to lower top-line growth compared to competitors like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. The market may be pricing in a continued loss of market share, which could significantly impact revenue.
High Risk
Competition
The cybersecurity market is highly competitive, with numerous established companies and emerging startups. This intense competition can adversely affect Check Point's market position and pricing power, potentially leading to reduced revenue and profit margins.
High Risk
Security Incidents and Data Breaches
Despite being a cybersecurity firm, Check Point has confirmed being targeted in hacking attempts. Any future security breaches could severely damage its reputation and erode customer trust, impacting sales and long-term growth.
Medium
Transition to Subscription Services
Check Point is shifting towards higher-margin subscriptions, which may involve short-term margin pressure as the company reinvests in sales and marketing. The success of this transition depends on customer acceptance and adoption of new solutions.
Medium
Execution and Strategy Risks
The company's success hinges on its ability to develop platform capabilities and execute its go-to-market strategy effectively. Failure to adapt to evolving market demands or integrate new technologies could pose significant risks to its growth.
Medium
Economic and Geopolitical Factors
General market, political, and economic conditions, including acts of terrorism or war, can impact Check Point's business and its customers' operations. Economic uncertainty may lead organizations to limit expenditures on cybersecurity solutions.
Lower
Product Liability
As Check Point's products are critical for internet security, there is an inherent risk of product liability claims and related litigation due to product errors. Such claims could lead to financial losses and reputational damage.
Lower
Regulatory and Compliance
Check Point must navigate evolving regulatory landscapes and ensure compliance with various standards, which can require ongoing investment and adaptation. Non-compliance could result in fines and operational disruptions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CHKP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Transition and AI Integration
Check Point is actively pivoting towards a software-led, recurring revenue model, emphasizing its Infinity platform and AI-enhanced security offerings. The company's recent integration with Google Cloud's Gemini AI platform aims to secure large-scale AI agent deployments, positioning Check Point at the forefront of AI security.
Undervaluation and Growth Potential
Some analysts believe the stock is currently undervalued, with a fair value estimate significantly higher than its current trading price. Projections suggest revenue could reach $3.3 billion by 2029, with earnings around $992.3 million, driven by modest success in cloud, SASE, and hybrid security.
Strong Financials and Performance
Check Point has demonstrated robust financial performance, including strong revenue growth, solid profit margins, and a healthy return on equity. In Q3 2025, calculated billings increased by 20% year-over-year, and total revenues grew by 7%, showcasing the company's financial strength.
Product Momentum and Market Recognition
Check Point's emerging technologies like Harmony SASE, Harmony Email, and External Risk Management are experiencing high growth rates. The company has received recognition for its security effectiveness, ranking first in Miercom's 2026 Hybrid Mesh Network Security Benchmark.
Customer Adoption and Retention
The Infinity platform continues to gain traction, with strong double-digit revenue growth and increased customer adoption, now accounting for over 15% of total revenue. This supports expectations for revenue growth through enhanced customer retention and cross-selling opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CHKP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$117.64
52W Range Position
4%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$112.23
+4.8% from the low
52-Week High
$233.78
-49.7% from the high
1 Month
-20.62%
3 Month
-33.25%
YTD
-35.0%
1 Year
-46.6%
3Y CAGR
-0.9%
5Y CAGR
-0.4%
10Y CAGR
+3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CHKP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 30.2x median
-63% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +13.2% median
-69% below peer median
Net Margin
38.4%
vs 18.8% median
+105% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHK CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. | $12.3B | 11.3x | +4.0% | 38.4% | Hold | +30.9% |
PAN PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $129.3B | 49.9x | +15.3% | 13.0% | Buy | +13.0% |
FTN FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $66.9B | 30.2x | +13.2% | 27.3% | Hold | -3.5% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $373.4B | 22.7x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.3% |
FFI FFIV F5, Inc. | $19.2B | 20.6x | +6.1% | 22.0% | Hold | -8.6% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $120.7B | 97.9x | +23.5% | -3.8% | Buy | +10.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CHKP Dividend and Capital Return
CHKP returns 11.4% annually — null% through dividends and 11.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
11.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
104M
At 11.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCHKP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 63 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 30 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $154, implying +30.9% from the current price of $118. The bear case scenario is $95 and the bull case is $203.
02What is the CHKP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CHKP is $154 based on 63 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+87.0% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (+2.0%). The base case model target is $144.
03Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock overvalued in 2026?
CHKP trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CHKP in 2026 are: (1) Top-Line Growth Stagnation — Check Point has historically prioritized margin preservation over aggressive market share acquisition, leading to lower top-line growth compared to competitors like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. (2) Competition — The cybersecurity market is highly competitive, with numerous established companies and emerging startups. (3) Security Incidents and Data Breaches — Despite being a cybersecurity firm, Check Point has confirmed being targeted in hacking attempts. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CHKP will report consensus revenue of $2.9B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.65 (+6.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.0B in revenue.
06When does Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CHKP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. generate?
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 47.5%. CHKP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).