Upside case
Bull case
$196+60.3%
CHKP would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
63
analysts
27 bullish · 5 bearish · 63 covering CHKP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
31
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
+24.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$94 – $196
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
63
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
CHKP price targets
Three scenarios for where CHKP stock could go
Current
~$122
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $122
Bear
$94
Base
$149
Bull
$196
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$149+21.6%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$94-23.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push CHKP down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.
CHKP · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Check Point Software Technologies is a cybersecurity company that develops and sells a comprehensive suite of security solutions for networks, endpoints, cloud environments, and mobile devices. It generates revenue primarily through software license sales and subscription services — including security gateways, threat prevention technologies, and cloud security offerings — along with technical support and professional services. The company's key advantage is its integrated Check Point Infinity Architecture, which provides unified protection across multiple attack vectors and environments through a single management console.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
38.4%
CHKP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.37/$2.36
Revenue
$665M/$662M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.94/$2.45
Revenue
$678M/$673M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.40/$2.77
Revenue
$745M/$746M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.42
Revenue
$668M/$673M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.37/$2.36 | +0.4% | $665M/$662M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.94/$2.45 | +60.8% | $678M/$673M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.40/$2.77 | +22.7% | $745M/$746M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.42 | +3.3% | $668M/$673M | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.9B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$3.1B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.60
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$11.54
+8.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 47.5%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.46
Expected Revenue
$675M
CHKP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CHKP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Security Subscriptions
37.2%
+10.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA
43.1%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Security Subscriptions is the largest disclosed segment at 37.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.4% YoY.
EMEA is the largest reported region at 43.1%, up 4.8% YoY.
CHKP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $417 — implies +241.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
241.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CHKP
12.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
48% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
CHKP
12.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
56% discount
vs CHKP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.7x
vs
5Y Average
21.0x
39% discount
Forward PE
11.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-38%
Technology
22.3x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-48%
Technology
29.0x
-56%
5Y Avg
21.0x
-39%
PEG Ratio
1.27x
S&P 500
1.66x
-24%
Technology
1.51x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-8%
Technology
16.6x
-16%
5Y Avg
19.2x
-27%
Price/FCF
10.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-49%
Technology
19.2x
-45%
5Y Avg
16.6x
-37%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+51%
Technology
2.4x
+92%
5Y Avg
7.5x
-37%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CHKP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg CHKP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.7x | 18.8x-38% | 22.3x-47% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.7x | 24.4x-48% | 29.0x-56% | 21.0x-39% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.27x | 1.66x-24% | 1.51x-16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 15.2x | 16.6x-16% | 19.2x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 10.6x | 20.7x-49% | 19.2x-45% | 16.6x-37% |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+51% | 2.4x+92% | 7.5x-37% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
CHKP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCHKP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CHKP generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 47.5% margin — 23.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
85.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
38.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
47.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$172M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
11.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
104M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCHKP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Analyst price target cuts
Multiple firms trimmed price targets ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, contributing to a ~5% stock price decline.
High Risk
Intense cybersecurity competition
The company faces fierce competition in the cybersecurity sector, as highlighted in its annual risk factors.
Medium
Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks
Check Point's business is exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, per its 20-F filing.
Lower
Bear case valuation
Scenario-based modeling suggests a bear case price target of $151, implying significant downside risk.
Medium
Earnings anticipation pressure
The stock has been pressured by investor caution ahead of Q1 2026 results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CHKP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong market position
Check Point is a cybersecurity giant protecting over 100,000 organizations globally, including governments, banks, and Fortune 500 companies.
AI partnership with Google Cloud
Check Point's AI Defense Plane integration with Google's Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform positions it as a leader in securing AI deployments.
Attractive valuation scenarios
Scenario-based models show significant upside potential with bull case price target of $292, representing strong growth prospects.
Enterprise customer base
The company serves high-value clients across critical sectors like healthcare, finance, and government, ensuring stable revenue streams.
Cybersecurity industry tailwinds
Growing threats like ransomware and data theft drive increased demand for Check Point's established security solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CHKP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$122.33
52W Range Position
8%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$112.23
+9.0% from the low
52-Week High
$232.07
-47.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.89%
3 Month
-20.13%
YTD
-32.4%
1 Year
-44.0%
3Y CAGR
-1.6%
5Y CAGR
+0.6%
10Y CAGR
+4.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CHKP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.7x
vs 45.9x median
-74% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +12.3% median
-55% below peer median
Net Margin
38.4%
vs 19.7% median
+95% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHK CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. | $12.8B | 11.7x | +5.5% | 38.4% | Hold | +24.3% |
PAN PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $196.1B | 76.3x | +12.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +12.9% |
FTN FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $107.1B | 45.9x | +13.5% | 27.5% | Hold | -31.6% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $471.2B | 28.0x | +6.4% | 19.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
FFI FFIV F5, Inc. | $21.8B | 23.4x | +10.9% | 22.0% | Hold | -1.9% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $174.3B | 138.7x | +17.2% | -0.5% | Buy | +0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CHKP Dividend and Capital Return
CHKP returns 11.0% annually — null% through dividends and 11.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
11.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
11.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
104M
At 11.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCHKP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 63 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 31 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying +24.3% from the current price of $122. The bear case scenario is $94 and the bull case is $196.
02What is the CHKP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CHKP is $152 based on 63 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+79.8% from today), and the low-end target is $120 (-1.9%). The base case model target is $149.
03Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock overvalued in 2026?
CHKP trades at 11.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CHKP in 2026 are: (1) Intense cybersecurity competition — The company faces fierce competition in the cybersecurity sector, as highlighted in its annual risk factors. (2) Analyst price target cuts — Multiple firms trimmed price targets ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, contributing to a ~5% stock price decline. (3) Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks — Check Point's business is exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, per its 20-F filing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CHKP will report consensus revenue of $2.9B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.60 (+6.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.1B in revenue.
06When does Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) report its next earnings?
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $2.46 and revenue of $675M. Over recent quarters, CHKP has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. generate?
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 47.5%. CHKP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).