Upside case
Bull case
$807-27.9%
The bull case prices GEV at 29x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering GEV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1120
+0.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $807
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $300.7B
GEV price targets
Three scenarios for where GEV stock could go
Current
~$1119
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1119
Base
$2227
Bull
$807
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2227+99.0%
At 80x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
GE Vernova Inc.
GEV · NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesDecember year-end
GE Vernova is a diversified energy technology company that provides power generation equipment and grid solutions across multiple energy sources. It makes money primarily through three segments: Power (gas, nuclear, and hydro turbines), Wind (onshore and offshore wind turbines), and Electrification (grid equipment and power conversion systems). The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive energy portfolio—spanning traditional and renewable technologies—and its deep expertise in large-scale power infrastructure projects.
Market Cap
$300.7B
Revenue TTM
$39.4B
Net Income TTM
$9.4B
Net Margin
23.8%
GEV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
56%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+57.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.48
Revenue
$9.1B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.64/$1.72
Revenue
$10.0B/$9.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$13.39/$2.93
Revenue
$11.0B/$10.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.98/$1.95
Revenue
$9.3B/$9.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$1.48 | +25.7% | $9.1B/$8.8B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.64/$1.72 | -4.7% | $10.0B/$9.1B | +9.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.39/$2.93 | +357.0% | $11.0B/$10.2B | +7.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.98/$1.95 | +1.5% | $9.3B/$9.3B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$43.8B
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$48.0B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$33.82
-1.9% YoY
FY2
$35.97
+6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.6B
FCF Margin: 9.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GEV beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
GEV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $38.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
55.0%
+10.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
35.3%
+2.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 55.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.5% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 35.3%, up 2.3% YoY.
GEV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $424 — implies -60.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
60.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GEV
63.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+151% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
GEV
63.3x
vs
Utilities
19.8x
+219% premium
vs GEV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
63.3x
vs
5Y Average
47.9x
+32% premium
Forward PE
40.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+111%
Utilities
17.2x
+134%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
63.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+151%
Utilities
19.8x
+219%
5Y Avg
47.9x
+32%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Utilities
1.67x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
130.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+756%
Utilities
11.3x
+1052%
5Y Avg
61.2x
+113%
Price/FCF
81.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+281%
Utilities
15.1x
+437%
5Y Avg
51.2x
+58%
Price/Sales
7.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+152%
Utilities
2.1x
+271%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+115%
Dividend Yield
0.09%
S&P 500
1.87%
-95%
Utilities
3.09%
-97%
5Y Avg
0.15%
-42%
| Metric | GEV | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg GEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.3x | 19.1x+111% | 17.2x+134% | — |
| Trailing PE | 63.3x | 25.2x+151% | 19.8x+219% | 47.9x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.67x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 130.2x | 15.2x+756% | 11.3x+1052% | 61.2x+113% |
| Price/FCF | 81.0x | 21.3x+281% | 15.1x+437% | 51.2x+58% |
| Price/Sales | 7.9x | 3.1x+152% | 2.1x+271% | 3.7x+115% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.09% | 1.87% | 3.09% | 0.15% |
GEV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGEV Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GEV earns 3.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 0.1% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$34.47
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
3.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
27.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$8.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
79.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (27.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
5.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
269M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageGEV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Execution & Project Risk
Large-scale power and grid projects carry significant execution risks, including potential cost overruns and schedule delays. GE Vernova’s ability to manage these complex projects is critical to its financial performance and margin maintenance.
High Risk
Wind Segment Challenges
The Wind segment has been a drag on overall margins, facing regulatory headwinds, supply chain constraints, and offshore project delays. Mixed performance and contract risks have pressured profitability in this unit.
High Risk
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
GE Vernova faces disruptions in its supply chain, with high component costs, unavailability, and logistical delays. These issues can impact manufacturing timelines and input costs, potentially affecting customer delivery and margins.
High Risk
Economic Slowdown Risk
A potential recession could plateau or reduce GE Vernova’s sales, compounded by the risk of a credit rating downgrade that would limit borrowing capacity and raise capital costs. Such macro‑environmental shifts could materially impact revenue growth.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The company trades at a premium to peers, reflecting bullish expectations. Any disappointment in execution, margins, or timing could trigger a multiple compression, eroding shareholder value.
Medium
Policy & Regulatory Uncertainty
Changes in government incentives or regulations could reduce demand for renewable energy systems. Legal and regulatory matters, including legacy issues, could lead to financial liabilities and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GEV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI-Driven Demand Surge
GE Vernova has secured over $2 billion in data center electrification orders for 2025, underscoring the direct impact of AI on its business. The company is positioned to ride the AI wave as demand for electric‑grid equipment grows.
Robust Order Backlog
The firm’s backlog has climbed to roughly $150 billion, with organic orders surging significantly, indicating strong future revenue potential.
Projected Revenue & Earnings Growth
GE Vernova forecasts revenue of $48 billion by 2028 and $77 billion by 2030, while earnings could reach $5.8 billion by 2028, reflecting aggressive growth expectations.
Strategic Acquisitions & Capital Deployment
Acquiring the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE is expected to accelerate growth in the Electrification segment. The company also plans to double its 2026 dividend and boost share repurchases, signaling confidence in cash generation.
Global Reach & Installed Base
GE Vernova’s products and services generate about 25% of the world’s electricity, demonstrating its significant global impact and installed base.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GEV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1118.96
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$387.03
+189.1% from the low
52-Week High
$1181.95
-5.3% from the high
1 Month
+24.69%
3 Month
+43.58%
YTD
+64.7%
1 Year
+178.9%
3Y CAGR
+104.3%
5Y CAGR
+53.5%
10Y CAGR
+23.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GEV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.3x
vs 25.5x median
+58% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.1%
vs +5.6% median
+99% above peer median
Net Margin
23.8%
vs 13.3% median
+78% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GEV GEV GE Vernova Inc. | $300.7B | 40.3x | +11.1% | 23.8% | Buy | +0.1% |
MHK MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $6.4B | 11.4x | -0.3% | 3.8% | Hold | +24.5% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $117.8B | 60.0x | +14.9% | 3.7% | Buy | -17.6% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.5B | 31.7x | +10.3% | 14.0% | Buy | -9.9% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $83.2B | 22.8x | +4.2% | 13.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $26.7B | 25.5x | +5.6% | 15.1% | Hold | +6.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GEV Dividend and Capital Return
GEV returns capital mainly through $3.3B/year in buybacks (1.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.09% dividend — combining for 1.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
0.09%
Payout Ratio
5.6%
How GEV Splits Its Return
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 0.09%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
269M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.75 | +200.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $0.25 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsGEV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1120, implying +0.1% from the current price of $1119.
02What is the GEV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GEV is $1120 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1400 (+25.1% from today), and the low-end target is $714 (-36.2%). The base case model target is $2227.
03Is GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) stock overvalued in 2026?
GEV trades at 40.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GEV in 2026 are: (1) Execution & Project Risk — Large-scale power and grid projects carry significant execution risks, including potential cost overruns and schedule delays. (2) Wind Segment Challenges — The Wind segment has been a drag on overall margins, facing regulatory headwinds, supply chain constraints, and offshore project delays. (3) Supply Chain Vulnerabilities — GE Vernova faces disruptions in its supply chain, with high component costs, unavailability, and logistical delays. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is GE Vernova Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GEV will report consensus revenue of $43.8B (+11.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $33.82 (-1.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.0B in revenue.
06When does GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GEV is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does GE Vernova Inc. generate?
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) generated $3.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.2%. GEV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($3.3B TTM).