Upside case
Bull case
$1348+404.1%
GNRC would need investors to value it at roughly 156x earnings — about 125x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
39
analysts
26 bullish · 0 bearish · 39 covering GNRC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$271
+1.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$311 – $1348
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
39
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.7B
GNRC price targets
Three scenarios for where GNRC stock could go
Current
~$267
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $267
Bear
$311
Base
$553
Bull
$1348
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$553+106.9%
At 64x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$311+16.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push GNRC down roughly 16% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Generac Holdings Inc.
GNRC · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Generac is a leading manufacturer of backup power generation equipment and energy storage systems for residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It generates revenue primarily from selling standby generators (~60% of sales), portable generators (~20%), and clean energy products like solar+battery systems (~15%), with the remainder from service and accessories. The company's competitive moat stems from its dominant brand recognition in residential backup power—often called "the Kleenex of generators"—and its extensive dealer network that provides installation and maintenance services.
Market Cap
$15.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$189M
Net Margin
4.4%
GNRC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.65/$1.33
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.83/$2.25
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.61/$1.81
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.80/$1.33
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.65/$1.33 | +24.1% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -12.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.83/$2.25 | -18.7% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -4.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.61/$1.81 | -11.0% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -6.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.80/$1.33 | +35.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.20
+63.1% YoY
FY2
$5.56
+6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$419M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GNRC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GNRC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $219M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Extended Warranties
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Extended Warranties is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
GNRC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $164 — implies -36.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
36.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GNRC
99.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+294% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GNRC
99.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+284% premium
vs GNRC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
99.4x
vs
5Y Average
36.0x
+176% premium
Forward PE
31.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+63%
Industrials
20.8x
+49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
99.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+294%
Industrials
25.9x
+284%
5Y Avg
36.0x
+176%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
34.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+126%
Industrials
13.9x
+148%
5Y Avg
18.2x
+89%
Price/FCF
58.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+174%
Industrials
20.6x
+184%
5Y Avg
35.3x
+66%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+19%
Industrials
1.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+37%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
S&P 500
1.88%
-100%
Industrials
1.24%
-100%
5Y Avg
0.00%
-52%
| Metric | GNRC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GNRC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.0x | 19.1x+63% | 20.8x+49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 99.4x | 25.2x+294% | 25.9x+284% | 36.0x+176% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.5x | 15.3x+126% | 13.9x+148% | 18.2x+89% |
| Price/FCF | 58.5x | 21.3x+174% | 20.6x+184% | 35.3x+66% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+19% | 1.6x+135% | 2.7x+37% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.00% |
GNRC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGNRC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
GNRC generates $419M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$419M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$341M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$992M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.4× FCF
~2.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$148M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
59M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGNRC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Residential Demand Volatility
Generac's residential segment, which constitutes over half of its revenue, is heavily influenced by weather-driven power outages. A softer outage environment, as seen in late 2025, directly impacts sales of home standby and portable generators, introducing significant uncertainty in revenue projections.
High Risk
Commercial and Industrial Execution
The CNI segment, particularly in data center infrastructure, presents significant growth opportunities, but successful execution is crucial. Challenges include converting non-binding demand signals into firm orders and ensuring smooth integration of acquisitions, which raises expectations and execution risks.
High Risk
Margin Pressure
Generac has experienced a decline in gross profit margins and adjusted EBITDA margins due to an unfavorable sales mix and inventory provisions. As the CNI segment, which may have lower margins, becomes a larger part of the business, maintaining healthy overall margins will be critical.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts believe GNRC stock is materially overvalued, with current pricing reflecting optimism about future growth that may not yet be fully secured. The stock's valuation may be pricing in too much potential before concrete backlog conversion and proven execution.
Medium
Product Recalls and Investigations
Concerns have been raised about core product challenges in home standby and portable generators, including potential product recalls, lawsuits, and government investigations. Such issues could lead to financial liabilities and reputational damage.
Lower
Macroeconomic Factors
Broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including elevated interest rates, can impact consumer spending and demand for durable goods like generators. This could lead to reduced sales and slower growth in the residential and CNI segments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GNRC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Data Center and International Expansion
Generac's data center and international businesses are expected to scale significantly, with investments in capacity projected to enhance revenue and earnings contributions by 2029.
Improving Profitability
The company anticipates rising profit margins driven by home standby generators, dealer network effects, and higher-margin connected services such as ecobee and remote monitoring.
Demand for Reliability and Grid Resilience
There is increasing demand for backup power and grid resilience, which is likely to positively influence investor expectations for Generac.
Market Position and Growth
Generac commands around 80% market share in the North American residential home standby generator market, positioning it well to benefit from growing concerns over grid reliability and the shift towards backup power security.
Undervalued Stock Potential
Analysts suggest that Generac is undervalued, with fair value estimates indicating significant upside potential, including a narrative suggesting a fair value of $300 per share, which represents a 27.2% discount from a recent closing price of $218.38.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GNRC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$267.42
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$113.50
+135.6% from the low
52-Week High
$269.25
-0.7% from the high
1 Month
+36.77%
3 Month
+45.71%
YTD
+89.5%
1 Year
+135.1%
3Y CAGR
+34.3%
5Y CAGR
-3.4%
10Y CAGR
+22.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GNRC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.0x
vs 27.2x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.6%
vs +5.2% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
4.4%
vs 13.3% median
-67% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GNR GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | $15.7B | 31.0x | +4.6% | 4.4% | Buy | +1.4% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $26.7B | 25.5x | +5.6% | 15.1% | Hold | +6.5% |
POW POWL Powell Industries, Inc. | $11.7B | 58.0x | +14.5% | 16.5% | Hold | -33.3% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.5B | 22.0x | +5.0% | 6.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $98.9B | 27.2x | +4.3% | 7.9% | Buy | -13.2% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $431.2B | 40.1x | +5.2% | 13.3% | Buy | -11.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GNRC Dividend and Capital Return
GNRC returns capital mainly through $148M/year in buybacks (0.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.00% dividend — combining for 0.9% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Payout Ratio
0.2%
How GNRC Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 0.00%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$148M
Estimated Shares Retired
553.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
59M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $5.00 | -16.7% | 0.0% | 8.7% |
| 2012 | $6.00 | — | 0.0% | 19.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsGNRC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 39 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $271, implying +1.4% from the current price of $267. The bear case scenario is $311 and the bull case is $1348.
02What is the GNRC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GNRC is $271 based on 39 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $325 (+21.5% from today), and the low-end target is $195 (-27.1%). The base case model target is $553.
03Is Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) stock overvalued in 2026?
GNRC trades at 31.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GNRC in 2026 are: (1) Residential Demand Volatility — Generac's residential segment, which constitutes over half of its revenue, is heavily influenced by weather-driven power outages. (2) Commercial and Industrial Execution — The CNI segment, particularly in data center infrastructure, presents significant growth opportunities, but successful execution is crucial. (3) Margin Pressure — Generac has experienced a decline in gross profit margins and adjusted EBITDA margins due to an unfavorable sales mix and inventory provisions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Generac Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GNRC will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+4.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.20 (+63.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GNRC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Generac Holdings Inc. generate?
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) generated $419M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. GNRC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($148M TTM).