Upside case
Bull case
$1093+52.4%
CMI would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
27 bullish · 1 bearish · 51 covering CMI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$750
+4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$523 – $1093
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $99.0B
CMI price targets
Three scenarios for where CMI stock could go
Current
~$717
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $717
Bear
$523
Base
$829
Bull
$1093
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$829+15.7%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$523-27.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push CMI down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cummins Inc.
CMI · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Cummins is a global manufacturer of diesel and natural gas engines, powertrains, and related components for commercial vehicles and industrial equipment. It generates revenue primarily through engine sales (~40% of total), distribution of parts and services (~30%), and components like filtration and emission systems (~20%). The company's moat lies in its extensive service network, deep OEM relationships, and technological leadership in clean diesel and alternative power solutions.
Market Cap
$99.0B
Revenue TTM
$33.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
7.9%
CMI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.43/$5.23
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.59/$4.83
Revenue
$8.3B/$8.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.81/$5.10
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.15/$5.63
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.43/$5.23 | +22.9% | $8.6B/$8.4B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.59/$4.83 | +15.7% | $8.3B/$8.0B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.81/$5.10 | +13.9% | $8.5B/$8.1B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.15/$5.63 | +9.2% | $8.4B/$8.4B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$36.0B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$38.8B
+7.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$23.09
+19.9% YoY
FY2
$25.78
+11.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 7.9%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$7.26
Expected Revenue
$9.3B
CMI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CMI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $33.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Distribution
36.8%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.2%
-2.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Distribution is the largest disclosed segment at 36.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.2%, down 2.3% YoY.
CMI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $568 — implies -20.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CMI
35.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+43% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CMI
35.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+37% premium
vs CMI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.0x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
+52% premium
Forward PE
24.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+31%
Industrials
21.2x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+43%
Industrials
25.6x
+37%
5Y Avg
22.9x
+52%
PEG Ratio
3.10x
S&P 500
1.66x
+87%
Industrials
1.65x
+88%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+38%
Industrials
13.9x
+51%
5Y Avg
12.3x
+70%
Price/FCF
41.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+101%
Industrials
20.0x
+107%
5Y Avg
54.1x
-23%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Industrials
1.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+108%
Dividend Yield
1.06%
S&P 500
1.91%
-45%
Industrials
1.21%
-13%
5Y Avg
2.24%
-53%
| Metric | CMI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CMI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.7x | 18.8x+31% | 21.2x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.0x | 24.4x+43% | 25.6x+37% | 22.9x+52% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.10x | 1.66x+87% | 1.65x+88% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.0x | 15.2x+38% | 13.9x+51% | 12.3x+70% |
| Price/FCF | 41.5x | 20.7x+101% | 20.0x+107% | 54.1x-23% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 1.6x+88% | 1.4x+108% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.06% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.24% |
CMI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCMI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CMI 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.0× FCF
~2.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
138M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCMI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Revenue concentration risk
Cummins' heavy reliance on diesel and alternative fuel engines exposes it to shifts in demand for traditional combustion engines.
High Risk
Technological disruption
The transition to electric and hybrid powertrains may threaten Cummins' core diesel engine business if adoption accelerates faster than expected.
Medium
Valuation uncertainty
Wide analyst price target range ($520-$850) reflects disagreement about future earnings potential and market positioning.
Lower
Geopolitical risks
Global operations across 190 countries expose Cummins to trade tensions, currency fluctuations, and regional economic instability.
High Risk
Regulatory pressures
Increasing emissions regulations could force costly R&D investments or render certain engine technologies obsolete.
Medium
Margin compression
Competition in alternative powertrains and transmission systems may pressure pricing and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CMI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong Q4 earnings growth
Cummins reported a 41% YoY increase in Q4 diluted EPS to $4.27, driven by 11% operating profit growth despite flat revenue.
Power Systems segment strength
The Power Systems segment achieved a 22.7% EBITDA margin on $7.5B revenue, with 12-17% growth projections for 2026 due to rising data center demand.
Raised 2026 revenue guidance
Cummins raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to 8%-11% growth, citing stronger North American on-highway and power generation demand.
Data center power demand
The company is benefiting from heightened data center power needs, driving growth in its Power Systems segment.
Strategic hydrogen sector focus
$458M Accelera charges reflect strategic restructuring in the hydrogen sector, positioning Cummins for future growth in alternative fuels.
Global distribution network
Cummins sells in approximately 190 countries through a network of over 600 distributors, providing broad market access and revenue diversification.
Dividend affirmation
The company affirmed a $2.00 quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in its financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CMI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$716.86
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$307.90
+132.8% from the low
52-Week High
$737.76
-2.8% from the high
1 Month
+5.75%
3 Month
+31.95%
YTD
+37.3%
1 Year
+127.6%
3Y CAGR
+45.4%
5Y CAGR
+25.2%
10Y CAGR
+20.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CMI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.7x
vs 25.8x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs -0.3% median
+2040% above peer median
Net Margin
7.9%
vs 9.1% median
-13% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $99.0B | 24.7x | +6.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $62.6B | 21.0x | +0.3% | 9.1% | Hold | +7.1% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $458.7B | 40.0x | +6.5% | 13.3% | Buy | -10.5% |
DE DE Deere & Company | $159.1B | 32.6x | -1.9% | 10.2% | Hold | +17.1% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.2B | 19.0x | -0.3% | 7.4% | Buy | +9.7% |
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $13.0B | 25.8x | -1.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +25.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CMI Dividend and Capital Return
CMI returns 1.1% total yield, led by a 1.06% dividend, raised 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.06%
Payout Ratio
37.1%
How CMI Splits Its Return
Div 1.06%
Dividend 1.06%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.1%
5Y Div CAGR
7.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
138M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.64 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $7.00 | +7.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $6.50 | +7.6% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $6.04 | +7.9% | 1.1% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsCMI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $750, implying +4.6% from the current price of $717. The bear case scenario is $523 and the bull case is $1093.
02What is the CMI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CMI is $750 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $874 (+21.9% from today), and the low-end target is $540 (-24.7%). The base case model target is $829.
03Is Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock overvalued in 2026?
CMI trades at 24.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CMI in 2026 are: (1) Technological disruption — The transition to electric and hybrid powertrains may threaten Cummins' core diesel engine business if adoption accelerates faster than expected. (2) Regulatory pressures — Increasing emissions regulations could force costly R&D investments or render certain engine technologies obsolete. (3) Revenue concentration risk — Cummins' heavy reliance on diesel and alternative fuel engines exposes it to shifts in demand for traditional combustion engines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cummins Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CMI will report consensus revenue of $36.0B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $23.09 (+19.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $38.8B in revenue.
06When does Cummins Inc. (CMI) report its next earnings?
Cummins Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $7.26 and revenue of $9.3B. Over recent quarters, CMI has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cummins Inc. generate?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.9%. CMI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).