Upside case
Bull case
$1131+58.1%
CMI would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
26 bullish · 1 bearish · 51 covering CMI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
24
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$621
-13.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$308 – $1131
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $98.9B
CMI price targets
Three scenarios for where CMI stock could go
Current
~$716
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $716
Bear
$308
Base
$857
Bull
$1131
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$857+19.7%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$308-57.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push CMI down roughly 57% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cummins Inc.
CMI · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Cummins is a global manufacturer of diesel and natural gas engines, powertrains, and related components for commercial vehicles and industrial equipment. It generates revenue primarily through engine sales (~40% of total), distribution of parts and services (~30%), and components like filtration and emission systems (~20%). The company's moat lies in its extensive service network, deep OEM relationships, and technological leadership in clean diesel and alternative power solutions.
Market Cap
$98.9B
Revenue TTM
$33.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
7.9%
CMI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.43/$5.23
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.59/$4.83
Revenue
$8.3B/$8.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.81/$5.10
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.15/$5.63
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.43/$5.23 | +22.9% | $8.6B/$8.4B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.59/$4.83 | +15.7% | $8.3B/$8.0B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.81/$5.10 | +13.9% | $8.5B/$8.1B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.15/$5.63 | +9.2% | $8.4B/$8.4B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$35.4B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$37.0B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.71
+17.9% YoY
FY2
$24.54
+8.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 7.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CMI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CMI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $33.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Distribution
36.8%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
66.2%
-2.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Distribution is the largest disclosed segment at 36.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 66.2%, down 2.3% YoY.
CMI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $555 — implies -15.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CMI
34.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+38% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CMI
34.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+35% premium
vs CMI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.9x
vs
5Y Average
22.9x
+52% premium
Forward PE
27.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+43%
Industrials
20.8x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+38%
Industrials
25.9x
+35%
5Y Avg
22.9x
+52%
PEG Ratio
3.09x
S&P 500
1.75x
+77%
Industrials
1.59x
+95%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+37%
Industrials
13.9x
+51%
5Y Avg
12.3x
+70%
Price/FCF
41.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+94%
Industrials
20.6x
+101%
5Y Avg
54.1x
-23%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-6%
Industrials
1.6x
+85%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+107%
Dividend Yield
1.06%
S&P 500
1.88%
-43%
Industrials
1.24%
-14%
5Y Avg
2.24%
-53%
| Metric | CMI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CMI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.2x | 19.1x+43% | 20.8x+31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.9x | 25.2x+38% | 25.9x+35% | 22.9x+52% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.09x | 1.75x+77% | 1.59x+95% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.0x | 15.3x+37% | 13.9x+51% | 12.3x+70% |
| Price/FCF | 41.4x | 21.3x+94% | 20.6x+101% | 54.1x-23% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 1.6x+85% | 1.4x+107% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.06% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.24% |
CMI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCMI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CMI 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.26
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.0× FCF
~2.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$7.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
138M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCMI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Truck Market Cyclicality
Cummins’ revenue is heavily tied to heavy‑ and medium‑duty truck demand. A 34% decline in North American heavy‑truck production in Q3 2025 directly reduced engine orders, compressing revenue and margins. Prolonged weakness could stall growth for multiple quarters.
High Risk
Emissions Regulation Risk
The 2027 EPA emissions rules are tightening and uncertain, potentially delaying customer capital spending on new engines. Non‑compliance could trigger recalls, penalties, and significant cost overruns. The timing of regulatory changes adds uncertainty to product road‑maps.
Medium
Trade Tariff Exposure
Geopolitical volatility has already raised tariffs on key components, increasing manufacturing costs and eroding margins. Escalating tariffs or delayed cost‑recovery through pricing could force Cummins to cut guidance or absorb losses.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerability
Cummins relies on a global supply chain for critical parts; disruptions or cost spikes can halt production lines and inflate unit costs. Recent supply‑chain shocks have already impacted delivery schedules.
Lower
Product Recall Risk
Engine or component failures can trigger costly recalls, eroding revenue and damaging brand reputation. Recall costs include repair, replacement, and potential legal liabilities.
Lower
Competitive & Pricing Pressure
Rivals and new entrants threaten Cummins’ market share, especially in data‑center backup power where pricing power is limited. Soft markets may prevent the company from passing cost increases to customers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CMI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
FY2026 Sales Growth Outlook
Cummins is projected to grow sales 3‑8% in fiscal 2026, with revenues expected to reach between $34.680 billion and $36.364 billion. This growth reflects a steady expansion across its Power Systems and Distribution segments.
Record 2025 Profitability and EPS Surge
In 2025, Cummins posted record EBITDA and earnings per share, with a 12.5% year‑over‑year rise in adjusted EPS. Analysts forecast 9.4% earnings growth for FY2026, underscoring strong profitability momentum.
Power Systems Segment 18% Sales Upswing
The Power Systems unit saw sales climb 18% year‑over‑year, driven by robust demand from data center power generation. Record revenues and margins in this segment highlight its contribution to overall growth.
Aftermarket Parts Growth 2‑8%
Aftermarket parts sales are expected to grow between 2% and 8%, indicating sustained market demand and operational efficiency across Cummins’ service network.
AI Data Center Infrastructure Exposure
Cummins’ involvement in AI data center infrastructure build‑out positions it beyond its traditional industrial roots, potentially unlocking new revenue streams as AI adoption accelerates.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CMI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$715.76
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$296.59
+141.3% from the low
52-Week High
$717.28
-0.2% from the high
1 Month
+29.67%
3 Month
+23.89%
YTD
+37.1%
1 Year
+139.9%
3Y CAGR
+47.3%
5Y CAGR
+21.9%
10Y CAGR
+20.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CMI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.2x
vs 26.1x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs -4.3% median
+201% above peer median
Net Margin
7.9%
vs 8.9% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $98.9B | 27.2x | +4.3% | 7.9% | Buy | -13.2% |
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $61.3B | 20.3x | -1.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +6.9% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $431.2B | 40.1x | +5.2% | 13.3% | Buy | -11.0% |
DE DE Deere & Company | $160.4B | 33.2x | -6.5% | 8.9% | Hold | +15.0% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.7B | 20.8x | -4.8% | 7.4% | Buy | +5.9% |
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $13.4B | 26.1x | -4.3% | 2.1% | Buy | +22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CMI Dividend and Capital Return
CMI returns 1.1% total yield, led by a 1.13% dividend, raised 21 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.13%
Payout Ratio
37.1%
How CMI Splits Its Return
Div 1.13%
Dividend 1.13%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$7.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
21Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.1%
5Y Div CAGR
7.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
138M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.64 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $7.00 | +7.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $6.50 | +7.6% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $6.04 | +7.9% | 1.1% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsCMI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $621, implying -13.2% from the current price of $716. The bear case scenario is $308 and the bull case is $1131.
02What is the CMI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CMI is $621 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $730 (+2.0% from today), and the low-end target is $540 (-24.6%). The base case model target is $857.
03Is Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock overvalued in 2026?
CMI trades at 27.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cummins Inc. (CMI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CMI in 2026 are: (1) Truck Market Cyclicality — Cummins’ revenue is heavily tied to heavy‑ and medium‑duty truck demand. (2) Emissions Regulation Risk — The 2027 EPA emissions rules are tightening and uncertain, potentially delaying customer capital spending on new engines. (3) Trade Tariff Exposure — Geopolitical volatility has already raised tariffs on key components, increasing manufacturing costs and eroding margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cummins Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CMI will report consensus revenue of $35.4B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.71 (+17.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $37.0B in revenue.
06When does Cummins Inc. (CMI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CMI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Cummins Inc. generate?
Cummins Inc. (CMI) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.9%. CMI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).