Upside case
Bull case
$264-11.2%
The bull case prices POWL at 48x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
10
analysts
3 bullish · 1 bearish · 10 covering POWL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$238
-20.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$126 – $264
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
54.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.8B
POWL price targets
Three scenarios for where POWL stock could go
Current
~$297
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $297
Bear
$126
Base
$200
Bull
$264
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$200-32.6%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$126-57.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 31x multiple contraction could push POWL down roughly 58% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Powell Industries, Inc.
POWL · NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSeptember year-end
Powell Industries designs and manufactures custom-engineered electrical power distribution and control systems for heavy industrial markets like oil and gas, petrochemical, and utilities. It generates revenue primarily from selling its engineered-to-order equipment—including power control rooms, switchgear, and electrical houses—with additional income from aftermarket services like spare parts and field maintenance. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in high-voltage custom solutions and long-standing relationships with industrial clients who rely on its specialized engineering capabilities.
Market Cap
$10.8B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
$187M
Net Margin
16.5%
POWL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+42.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.96/$3.73
Revenue
$286M/$298M
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.22/$3.78
Revenue
$298M/$292M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.13/$0.95
Revenue
$251M/$256M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.25/$1.34
Revenue
$297M/$298M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.96/$3.73 | +6.2% | $286M/$298M | -4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.22/$3.78 | +11.6% | $298M/$292M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.13/$0.95 | +18.9% | $251M/$256M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.25/$1.34 | -6.7% | $297M/$298M | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.3B
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$1.4B
+11.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.56
-10.9% YoY
FY2
$4.45
-2.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$143M
FCF Margin: 12.6%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.49
Expected Revenue
$317M
POWL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
POWL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil and Gas Service
36.8%
-2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
79.7%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil and Gas Service is the largest disclosed segment at 36.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 79.7%, up 4.0% YoY.
POWL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $166 — implies -44.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
44.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
POWL
60.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+145% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
POWL
60.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+135% premium
vs POWL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
60.0x
vs
5Y Average
18.8x
+219% premium
Forward PE
54.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+189%
Industrials
21.2x
+157%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
60.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+145%
Industrials
25.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
18.8x
+219%
PEG Ratio
1.00x
S&P 500
1.66x
-40%
Industrials
1.65x
-39%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
46.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+203%
Industrials
13.9x
+232%
5Y Avg
12.6x
+266%
Price/FCF
69.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+238%
Industrials
20.0x
+249%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+264%
Price/Sales
9.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+217%
Industrials
1.6x
+527%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+473%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
-94%
Industrials
1.21%
-90%
5Y Avg
2.22%
-95%
| Metric | POWL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg POWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 54.4x | 18.8x+189% | 21.2x+157% | — |
| Trailing PE | 60.0x | 24.4x+145% | 25.6x+135% | 18.8x+219% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.00x | 1.66x-40% | 1.65x-39% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.1x | 15.2x+203% | 13.9x+232% | 12.6x+266% |
| Price/FCF | 69.9x | 20.7x+238% | 20.0x+249% | 19.2x+264% |
| Price/Sales | 9.8x | 3.1x+217% | 1.6x+527% | 1.7x+473% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.12% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.22% |
POWL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPOWL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
POWL generates $143M in free cash flow at a 12.6% margin — 90.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$143M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
90.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$451M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$449M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$12M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
36M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePOWL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Rising costs
POWL faces near-term challenges due to increasing operational costs.
Medium
Tariff risks
Potential tariffs could negatively impact Powell Industries' supply chain and margins.
Lower
Market volatility
While volatility exists, the current P/E ratio aligns with long-term averages, offering some investor safety.
High Risk
Political uncertainty
Ongoing tensions between former Fed Chair Powell and political leadership may create regulatory or economic uncertainty.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why POWL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong financial performance
Powell Industries reported $1.1B revenue, $1.4B backlog, $476M cash, zero debt, and 29.4% gross margins in FY2025.
Integrated power solutions
POWL designs and manufactures complete electrical power infrastructure, including vacuum circuit breakers and Power Control Rooms, from a single facility.
High-reliability harsh-environment expertise
The company specializes in connectors and IoT solutions for harsh environments, positioning it as a premier industry resource.
Comprehensive field services
Powell provides extensive field services and support for power distribution systems, emphasizing customer needs and innovative solutions.
Attractive valuation metrics
As of October 6th, POWL's trailing and forward P/E ratios were 21.36 and 20.88 respectively, indicating reasonable valuation.
Bullish analyst coverage
Kroker Equity Research published a bullish thesis on POWL, highlighting its investment potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
POWL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$297.20
52W Range Position
64%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.70
+424.2% from the low
52-Week High
$434.00
-31.5% from the high
1 Month
+11.39%
3 Month
+77.53%
YTD
+152.9%
1 Year
+398.3%
3Y CAGR
+147.0%
5Y CAGR
+93.8%
10Y CAGR
+37.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
POWL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
54.4x
vs 31.6x median
+72% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.3%
vs +6.8% median
+65% above peer median
Net Margin
16.5%
vs 14.0% median
+18% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POW POWL Powell Industries, Inc. | $10.8B | 54.4x | +11.3% | 16.5% | Hold | -20.0% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $27.8B | 26.5x | +6.1% | 15.1% | Hold | +5.3% |
REZ REZI Resideo Technologies, Inc. | $4.8B | 11.4x | +6.8% | -6.5% | Buy | +25.4% |
NVT NVT nVent Electric plc | $28.6B | 38.6x | +13.0% | 11.4% | Buy | +6.3% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.8B | 31.6x | +10.7% | 14.0% | Buy | -1.2% |
GE GE GE Aerospace | $373.7B | 47.4x | +5.0% | 17.9% | Buy | +6.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
POWL Dividend and Capital Return
POWL returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.12% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
Payout Ratio
7.1%
How POWL Splits Its Return
Div 0.12%
Buyback 0.1%
Dividend 0.12%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-30.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-19.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$12M
Estimated Shares Retired
41.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
36M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.36 | +0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $0.35 | -32.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | -49.6% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $1.04 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsPOWL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $238, implying -20.0% from the current price of $297. The bear case scenario is $126 and the bull case is $264.
02What is the POWL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for POWL is $238 based on 10 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $333 (+12.0% from today), and the low-end target is $142 (-52.1%). The base case model target is $200.
03Is Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) stock overvalued in 2026?
POWL trades at 54.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for POWL in 2026 are: (1) Political uncertainty — Ongoing tensions between former Fed Chair Powell and political leadership may create regulatory or economic uncertainty. (2) Rising costs — POWL faces near-term challenges due to increasing operational costs. (3) Tariff risks — Potential tariffs could negatively impact Powell Industries' supply chain and margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Powell Industries, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates POWL will report consensus revenue of $1.3B (+11.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.56 (-10.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.4B in revenue.
06When does Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) report its next earnings?
Powell Industries, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.49 and revenue of $317M. Over recent quarters, POWL has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Powell Industries, Inc. generate?
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL) generated $143M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.6%. POWL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($12M TTM).