Operating income has experienced severe negative leverage, collapsing from $307 million in 2024Q1 to just $19 million in 2026Q1 as fixed costs overwhelm top-line performance.
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 | Dec'11 | Dec'10 | Dec'09 | Dec'08 | Dec'07 | Dec'06 | Dec'05 | Dec'04 | Dec'03 | Dec'02 | Dec'01 | Dec'00 | Dec'99 | Dec'98 | Dec'97 | Dec'96 |
|---|
| Sales/Revenue | 8.65B | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B | 6.56B | 6.16B | 6.03B | 4.4B | 4.3B | 4.16B | 4.24B | 4.48B | 4.34B | 4.21B | 4.09B | 4.1B | 4.08B | 2.42B | 2.41B | 2.38B | 2.39B | 1.68B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.1B | 831.4M | 988.4M | 731.1M | 712.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | -0.17% | -2.16% | -6.59% | -0.13% | 31.92% | 9.09% | 6.49% | 2.17% | 36.92% | 2.46% | 3.31% | -1.89% | -5.31% | 3.25% | 3.11% | 2.72% | -0.02% | 0.4% | 68.49% | 0.34% | 1.22% | -0.1% | 41.78% | 59.13% | -4.92% | 0.9% | 32.62% | -15.88% | 35.19% | 2.62% | -21.79% |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 5.33B | 7B | 6.81B | 7.23B | 7.62B | 6.08B | 5.43B | 5.06B | 5.08B | 3.69B | 3.49B | 3.36B | 3.45B | 3.75B | 3.62B | 3.56B | 3.49B | 3.52B | 3.6B | 2.06B | 2.1B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 1.4B | 930.58M | 960.26M | 892.65M | 640.3M | 736.4M | 509.8M | 506.4M |
| COGS % of Revenue | - | 81.29% | 77.34% | 76.73% | 80.67% | 84.95% | 82.74% | 82.22% | 84.21% | 83.69% | 81.29% | 80.71% | 81.47% | 83.76% | 83.35% | 84.73% | 85.33% | 86.06% | 88.17% | 85.15% | 87.14% | 86.88% | 84.92% | 83.08% | 87.97% | 86.31% | 80.96% | 77.01% | 74.5% | 69.73% | 71.08% |
| Gross Profit | 1.16B | 1.61B | 2B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B | 1.13B | 1.1B | 952M | 718.2M | 804.3M | 802.5M | 785.9M | 727.2M | 722M | 642.4M | 600.9M | 570.8M | 482.5M | 359.5M | 310.3M | 312.7M | 359.8M | 284.8M | 127.26M | 152.28M | 209.94M | 191.1M | 252M | 221.3M | 206M |
| Gross Margin % | 13.43% | 18.71% | 22.66% | 23.27% | 19.33% | 15.05% | 17.26% | 17.78% | 15.79% | 16.31% | 18.71% | 19.29% | 18.53% | 16.24% | 16.65% | 15.27% | 14.67% | 13.94% | 11.83% | 14.85% | 12.86% | 13.12% | 15.08% | 16.92% | 12.03% | 13.69% | 19.04% | 22.99% | 25.5% | 30.27% | 28.92% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | -19.24% | -9.02% | 20.22% | 69.45% | -4.9% | 3.38% | 15.07% | 32.55% | -10.71% | 0.22% | 2.11% | 8.07% | 0.72% | 12.39% | 6.91% | 5.27% | 18.3% | 34.21% | 15.86% | -0.77% | -13.09% | 26.33% | 123.79% | -16.43% | -27.46% | 9.86% | -24.17% | 13.87% | 7.43% | 1.43% |
| Operating Expenses | 735M | 743M | 843M | 860M | 787M | 526M | 503.7M | 525.1M | 482.6M | 342.7M | 355.7M | 347.7M | 365.5M | 384.3M | 378.1M | 342.4M | 320.4M | 355.5M | 340.7M | 208.3M | 212.9M | 225.8M | 244.2M | 178.7M | 64.62M | 83.52M | 153.09M | 152.7M | 163.6M | 149.9M | 142.7M |
| OpEx % of Revenue | - | 8.62% | 9.57% | 9.12% | 8.34% | 7.35% | 7.68% | 8.52% | 8% | 7.78% | 8.28% | 8.36% | 8.62% | 8.58% | 8.72% | 8.14% | 7.82% | 8.68% | 8.35% | 8.6% | 8.82% | 9.47% | 10.23% | 10.62% | 6.11% | 7.51% | 13.88% | 18.37% | 16.55% | 20.5% | 20.03% |
| Selling, General & Admin | 710M | 704M | 757M | 805M | 760M | 518M | 502.4M | 502.6M | 463.4M | 328.3M | 340.8M | 333.9M | 350.6M | 367.5M | 362M | 326.4M | 307.6M | 305.3M | 332.7M | 195.1M | 201.2M | 206.1M | 202.3M | 153.1M | 64.62M | 62.87M | 61.13M | 73.7M | 106.1M | 91.6M | 77.9M |
| SG&A % of Revenue | - | 8.17% | 8.6% | 8.54% | 8.05% | 7.24% | 7.66% | 8.16% | 7.69% | 7.46% | 7.93% | 8.03% | 8.27% | 8.21% | 8.35% | 7.76% | 7.51% | 7.45% | 8.16% | 8.06% | 8.34% | 8.65% | 8.48% | 9.1% | 6.11% | 5.65% | 5.54% | 8.86% | 10.73% | 12.53% | 10.93% |
| Research & Development | 0 | 0 | 17M | 16M | 14M | 10M | 10.2M | 9.2M | 8.7M | 14.4M | 14.9M | 13.8M | 14.9M | 16.8M | 16.1M | 16M | 12.8M | 7.2M | 8M | 9.2M | 11.4M | 9.9M | 9.6M | 7.4M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.6M | 15.3M |
| R&D % of Revenue | - | - | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.16% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.33% | 0.35% | 0.33% | 0.35% | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 0.31% | 0.18% | 0.2% | 0.38% | 0.47% | 0.42% | 0.4% | 0.44% | - | - | - | - | - | 2.13% | 2.15% |
| Other Operating Expenses | 3M | 39M | 69M | 39M | 13M | -2M | -8.9M | 13.3M | 13.4M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4M | 300K | 9.8M | 32.3M | 18.2M | 0 | 20.65M | 91.96M | 79M | 57.5M | 42.7M | 49.5M |
| Operating Income | 648M | 869M | 1.15B | 1.33B | 1.04B | 551M | 628.8M | 570.4M | 469.4M | 375.5M | 448.6M | 454.8M | 420.4M | 342.9M | 343.9M | 300M | 280.5M | 258.3M | 141.8M | 151.2M | 97.4M | 86.9M | 115.6M | 106.1M | 62.64M | 59.85M | 56.84M | 38.4M | 88.4M | 71.4M | 63.3M |
| Operating Margin % | 7.49% | 10.08% | 13.09% | 14.15% | 11% | 7.7% | 9.59% | 9.26% | 7.79% | 8.53% | 10.44% | 10.93% | 9.91% | 7.66% | 7.93% | 7.13% | 6.85% | 6.31% | 3.48% | 6.24% | 4.04% | 3.65% | 4.84% | 6.3% | 5.92% | 5.38% | 5.16% | 4.62% | 8.94% | 9.77% | 8.89% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | -24.63% | -13.57% | 28.52% | 88.38% | -12.37% | 10.24% | 21.52% | 25.01% | -16.3% | -1.36% | 8.18% | 22.6% | -0.29% | 14.63% | 6.95% | 8.59% | 82.16% | -6.22% | 55.24% | 12.08% | -24.83% | 8.95% | 69.38% | 4.66% | 5.3% | 48.03% | -56.56% | 23.81% | 12.8% | 11.44% |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 1.41B | 1.71B | 1.95B | 1.59B | 1.04B | 1.1B | 1.02B | 900M | 705.8M | 747.9M | 735.3M | 690.4M | 620.3M | 610.7M | 578.4M | 569.2M | 563.7M | 406.1M | 346M | 293.4M | 292.2M | 344.5M | 274.1M | 126.92M | 147.06M | 148.8M | 117.4M | 145.9M | 114.1M | 112.8M |
| EBITDA Margin % | 12.17% | 16.3% | 19.42% | 20.71% | 16.85% | 14.53% | 16.84% | 16.52% | 14.93% | 16.03% | 17.4% | 17.67% | 16.28% | 13.85% | 14.08% | 13.75% | 13.9% | 13.76% | 9.95% | 14.29% | 12.16% | 12.26% | 14.44% | 16.28% | 12% | 13.22% | 13.5% | 14.12% | 14.76% | 15.61% | 15.83% |
| EBITDA Growth % | -35.08% | -17.84% | -12.44% | 22.75% | 52.98% | -5.85% | 8.55% | 13.07% | 27.51% | -5.63% | 1.71% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 1.57% | 5.58% | 1.62% | 0.98% | 38.81% | 17.37% | 17.93% | 0.41% | -15.18% | 25.68% | 115.97% | -13.69% | -1.17% | 26.75% | -19.53% | 27.87% | 1.15% | 5.72% |
| D&A (Non-Cash Add-back) | 405M | 536M | 557M | 619M | 553M | 489M | 475.8M | 447.2M | 430.6M | 330.3M | 299.3M | 280.5M | 270M | 277.4M | 266.8M | 278.4M | 288.7M | 305.4M | 264.3M | 194.8M | 196M | 205.3M | 228.9M | 168M | 64.27M | 87.2M | 91.96M | 79M | 57.5M | 42.7M | 49.5M |
| EBIT | 585M | 805M | 1.12B | 1.17B | 913M | 406M | 366.3M | 493.2M | 472.1M | 343.3M | 394M | 423.9M | 210.1M | 311.4M | 306.6M | 164.2M | 176.5M | 242.6M | 151.2M | 142.1M | 90.9M | 87.5M | 116.2M | 0 | 62.64M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net Interest Income | -171M | -222M | -230M | -239M | -197M | -123M | -129M | -141M | -123.7M | -89.7M | -76.6M | -67.8M | -80.7M | -101.9M | -111.1M | 144.9M | -174.5M | -196.4M | -215.4M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400K | 1.3M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Expense | 107M | 222M | 230M | 239M | 197M | 123M | 129M | 141M | 123.7M | 89.7M | 76.6M | 67.8M | 80.7M | 101.9M | 111.1M | -144.9M | 174.5M | 196.8M | 216.7M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Income/Expense | -280M | -286M | -266M | -401M | -322M | -261M | -383.9M | -216M | -120.7M | -120.8M | -127.4M | -94.3M | -286M | -128.8M | -141.3M | -254.6M | -242.3M | -177.8M | -206.2M | -176.4M | -177.7M | -154.7M | -149M | -62.2M | -44.64M | -5.25M | 13.55M | 23M | -27.1M | -16.6M | -32.6M |
| Pretax Income | 368M | 583M | 887M | 933M | 716M | 290M | 244.9M | 354.4M | 348.7M | 254.7M | 321.2M | 360.5M | 134.4M | 214.1M | 202.6M | 45.4M | 38.2M | 80.5M | -64.4M | -25.2M | -80.3M | -67.8M | -33.4M | -82.7M | 18M | 10.69M | -11.68M | 35.5M | 35.6M | 46.1M | 22.4M |
| Pretax Margin % | 4.25% | 6.77% | 10.07% | 9.9% | 7.58% | 4.05% | 3.73% | 5.75% | 5.78% | 5.78% | 7.47% | 8.67% | 3.17% | 4.78% | 4.67% | 1.08% | 0.93% | 1.97% | -1.58% | -1.04% | -3.33% | -2.84% | -1.4% | -4.91% | 1.7% | 0.96% | -1.06% | 4.27% | 3.6% | 6.31% | 3.14% |
| Income Tax | 98M | 139M | 229M | 210M | 194M | 74M | 41.6M | 76.3M | 54.7M | -45.5M | 93.2M | 130.4M | 45.4M | 67.4M | 82.5M | -229.8M | 27.5M | 24.1M | 34.4M | 23.9M | 20.2M | 23.3M | 28.9M | 1.5M | 7.04M | 4.26M | -4.68M | 14M | 14.3M | 18.4M | 11M |
| Effective Tax Rate % | 26.63% | 23.84% | 25.82% | 22.51% | 27.09% | 25.52% | 16.99% | 21.53% | 15.69% | -17.86% | 29.02% | 36.17% | 33.78% | 31.48% | 40.72% | -506.17% | 71.99% | 29.94% | -53.42% | -94.84% | -25.16% | -34.37% | -86.53% | -1.81% | 39.08% | 39.81% | 40.07% | 39.44% | 40.17% | 39.91% | 49.11% |
| Net Income | 274M | 444M | 658M | 723M | 522M | 204M | 167.3M | 206.8M | 221.1M | 300.2M | 228M | 230.1M | 89.7M | 146.6M | 122.6M | 276.9M | 10.7M | 56.4M | -99.7M | -74.6M | -100.5M | -91.1M | -60.9M | -82.9M | -178.65M | 6.44M | -7M | 25.2M | 21.3M | 27.7M | -92M |
| Net Margin % | 3.17% | 5.15% | 7.47% | 7.67% | 5.53% | 2.85% | 2.55% | 3.36% | 3.67% | 6.82% | 5.3% | 5.53% | 2.12% | 3.27% | 2.83% | 6.58% | 0.26% | 1.38% | -2.44% | -3.08% | -4.16% | -3.82% | -2.55% | -4.92% | -16.89% | 0.58% | -0.63% | 3.03% | 2.15% | 3.79% | -12.91% |
| Net Income Growth % | -55.81% | -32.52% | -8.99% | 38.51% | 155.88% | 21.94% | -19.1% | -6.47% | -26.35% | 31.67% | -0.91% | 156.52% | -38.81% | 19.58% | -55.72% | 2487.85% | -81.03% | 156.57% | -33.65% | 25.77% | -10.32% | -49.59% | 26.54% | 53.6% | -2875.79% | 191.97% | -127.77% | 18.31% | -23.1% | 130.11% | -484.94% |
| Net Income (Continuing) | 274M | 444M | 658M | 723M | 522M | 216M | 203.3M | 278.1M | 294M | 300.2M | 228M | 230.1M | 89M | 146.7M | 120.1M | 275.2M | 10.7M | 56.4M | -98.8M | -49.1M | -100.5M | -91.1M | -62.3M | - | - | 6.44M | -7M | - | 21.3M | 27.7M | - |
| Discontinued Operations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -900K | -25.5M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minority Interest | 1M | 1M | 1M | 1M | 1M | 2M | 416M | 792.1M | 714.8M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.3M | 9.1M | 13.6M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.86M | 4.36M | 4.36M | 5.1M | 13.4M | 12.9M | 14.6M |
| EPS (Diluted) | 0.92 | 1.48 | 2.16 | 2.34 | 1.69 | 0.68 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 0.16 | -0.32 | -0.37 | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.21 | -0.56 | -5.38 | 0.20 | -0.24 | 0.88 | 0.75 | -0.08 | -2.83 |
| EPS Growth % | -55.12% | -31.48% | -7.69% | 38.46% | 148.53% | 13.33% | -14.29% | -1.41% | -26.04% | 35.21% | 1.43% | 159.26% | -35.71% | 35.48% | -57.53% | 2333.33% | -81.25% | 150% | 13.51% | 26% | -8.7% | -119.05% | 62.5% | 89.59% | -2790% | 183.33% | -127.27% | 17.33% | 1037.5% | 97.17% | -429.07% |
| EPS (Basic) | - | 1.49 | 2.16 | 2.35 | 1.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 0.74 | 0.03 | 0.16 | -0.32 | -0.37 | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.21 | -0.56 | -5.38 | 0.20 | -0.24 | 0.88 | 0.75 | -0.08 | -2.89 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 296.7M | 296.9M | 305.1M | 309.1M | 309.5M | 297.9M | 279.6M | 294.8M | 310.1M | 311.9M | 321.5M | 330.7M | 330.5M | 349.7M | 396.2M | 381.7M | 347.4M | 344.6M | 315.8M | 201.8M | 201.1M | 200M | 198.9M | 148.3M | 33.21M | 31.88M | 29.51M | 28.74M | 29.17M | 28.89M | 32.51M |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 296.7M | 296.6M | 304M | 308.2M | 308.8M | 297.1M | 278.8M | 294.1M | 309.5M | 311.1M | 320.9M | 329.5M | 328.6M | 347.3M | 393.4M | 376.3M | 343.8M | 343.1M | 315.8M | 201.8M | 201.1M | 200M | 198.9M | 148.3M | 33.21M | 31.88M | 29.51M | 28.56M | 28.38M | 28.89M | 31.83M |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | - | 28.83% | 18.54% | 17.01% | 17.62% | 45.1% | 61.45% | 54.5% | 50.2% | 31.11% | 28.25% | 21.43% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Margin compression from deleveraging
According to the provided quarterly financial data, GPK has experienced a consistent trend of negative year-over-year revenue growth, culminating in a 2.16% contraction, which suggests that the company is struggling to maintain volume levels amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment for consumer-packaged goods demand.
The persistent negative growth trajectory indicates that the company's reliance on non-discretionary consumer spending may not be providing the expected defensive buffer. Investors should monitor whether this trend reflects a structural shift in customer inventory management or a broader softening in the underlying demand for fiber-based packaging solutions.
As reported in recent financial statements, the company's gross margin has compressed significantly from 24.0% in 2024Q1 to 14.4% by 2025Q4, highlighting a concerning inability to maintain pricing power or effectively manage the high fixed-cost base inherent in its vertically integrated mill operations.
This margin degradation appears to be driven by a combination of volume deleveraging and potentially rising input costs that the company is failing to pass through to its CPG partners. The sharp decline suggests that the competitive advantage of vertical integration is currently being offset by the operational burden of maintaining high capacity utilization.
Based on the income statement analysis, operating income has failed to scale with revenue, dropping from $307 million in 2024Q1 to a low of $19 million in 2026Q1, which indicates that the company is currently experiencing significant negative operating leverage as fixed costs overwhelm top-line performance.
The inability to protect operating margins during periods of revenue contraction suggests that the company's cost structure is overly rigid. This lack of flexibility may force management to reconsider its capital allocation priorities if the current trend of declining operating efficiency continues to erode bottom-line profitability.
Analysis of the reported figures reveals that net income has become increasingly volatile, swinging from a $196 million profit in 2023Q4 to a $43 million loss in 2026Q1, a trend that warrants further investigation into the impact of non-operating items and potential accounting distortions.
The erratic nature of EPS, compounded by recent stock-based compensation fluctuations, suggests that the quality of reported earnings is currently low. Investors should be wary of relying on headline net income figures, as they appear to be heavily influenced by factors outside of core operational performance.
While management emphasizes the long-term benefits of mill modernization, the data suggests that the current strategy may be failing to deliver shareholder value, as evidenced by the sharp decline in net margins and the recent transition to a net loss in the most recent quarter.
Short-sellers would likely focus on the company's inability to maintain profitability despite its proprietary machinery moat, questioning whether the high capital expenditure requirements are truly justified. The current financial trajectory implies that the company may be over-leveraged for a period of sustained demand weakness.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying GPK stock.
For fiscal year 2025, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported total revenue of $8.62B. This represents a 1109.6% increase compared to $712.4M in 1996.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is profitable, generating $444.0M in net income for the fiscal year ending 2025 with a net profit margin of 5.2%.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported an operating income of $869.0M, resulting in an operating profit margin of 10.1%. This margin reflects the operational efficiency of the business before interest and taxes.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) generated $1.61B in gross profit for the year, representing a gross profit margin of 18.7%. This demonstrates the company's core pricing power and production efficiency.