Upside case
Bull case
$4750+416.9%
GS would need investors to value it at roughly 80x earnings — about 65x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
55
analysts
22 bullish · 3 bearish · 55 covering GS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
30
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$996
+8.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$750 – $4750
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
55
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $285.5B
GS price targets
Three scenarios for where GS stock could go
Current
~$919
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $919
Bear
$750
Base
$1605
Bull
$4750
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1605+74.6%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$750-18.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push GS down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
GS · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Goldman Sachs is a global investment bank and financial services firm that provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, governments, and high-net-worth individuals. It generates revenue primarily through investment banking fees (20-25%), trading and market-making in its Global Markets segment (40-45%), and asset management fees from its wealth and investment management divisions (30-35%). The firm's key competitive advantage lies in its elite brand reputation, deep client relationships with the world's largest corporations and governments, and its sophisticated risk management capabilities honed over decades.
Market Cap
$285.5B
Net Income TTM
$16.7B
GS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
91%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$12.25/$11.03
Revenue
$15.2B/$14.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$14.01/$11.70
Revenue
$13.5B/$14.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$11.95/$11.52
Revenue
$30.1B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$17.55/$16.47
Revenue
$17.2B/$17.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $12.25/$11.03 | +11.1% | $15.2B/$14.1B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.01/$11.70 | +19.7% | $13.5B/$14.5B | -7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.95/$11.52 | +3.7% | $30.1B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $17.55/$16.47 | +6.6% | $17.2B/$17.0B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$97.5B
-23.1% YoY
FY2
$122.3B
+25.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$61.40
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$70.79
+15.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$15.8B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $53.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Markets
65.3%
+16.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
64.4%
+17.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 65.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 16.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 64.4%, up 17.4% YoY.
GS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $951 — implies +2.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GS
22.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
10% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
GS
22.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+70% premium
vs GS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.7x
vs
5Y Average
11.9x
+90% premium
Forward PE
15.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-19%
Financial Services
10.4x
+49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-10%
Financial Services
13.3x
+70%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+90%
PEG Ratio
1.62x
S&P 500
1.72x
-6%
Financial Services
1.01x
+60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
34.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+128%
Financial Services
11.4x
+203%
5Y Avg
23.6x
+47%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
54.1x
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Financial Services
2.2x
+1%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+34%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
S&P 500
1.87%
-21%
Financial Services
2.70%
-46%
5Y Avg
2.59%
-43%
| Metric | GS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.5x | 19.1x-19% | 10.4x+49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.7x | 25.1x | 13.3x+70% | 11.9x+90% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.62x | 1.72x | 1.01x+60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.6x | 15.2x+128% | 11.4x+203% | 23.6x+47% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 54.1x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 2.2x | 1.7x+34% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.59% |
GS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
GS generates 12.6% ROE and 0.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$52.92
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$182.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$434.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$13.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
334M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageGS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Equity Market Declines
A significant downturn in equity markets can negatively affect Goldman Sachs' revenue stability, particularly given its reliance on investment banking and trading activities. Such a decline would reduce trading volumes and fee income, potentially eroding profitability.
High Risk
Capital Markets Activity Slowdown
A substantial slowdown in capital markets activity poses a risk to the firm's revenue streams. Reduced underwriting, M&A advisory, and securities issuance would directly cut fee income and trading gains.
High Risk
Liquidity Access
Inability to access debt markets or sell assets can adversely affect the firm's liquidity, profitability, and overall business operations. A liquidity crunch would force asset sales at depressed prices or higher funding costs, impairing earnings.
Medium
Counterparty Default
Third parties owing money, securities, or other assets to Goldman Sachs may default due to bankruptcy, lack of liquidity, or operational failures, which can lead to significant losses. Such defaults could erode capital and reduce credit quality, impacting risk‑adjusted returns.
Medium
Credit Rating Downgrades
A downgrade in credit ratings can increase the cost of funding and negatively impact liquidity. Higher borrowing costs would compress net interest margins and could trigger covenant breaches.
Lower
Reputational Risk
Controversies, such as those related to ethical standards or past involvement in financial crises, can damage the firm's reputation. Reputational harm could lead to client attrition, regulatory scrutiny, and higher compliance costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Business Momentum
Goldman Sachs is riding a wave of increasing merger and acquisition volumes, heightened client engagement, and growing CEO confidence. The company’s earnings are projected to rise 16.7% year‑over‑year, while revenues are expected to grow 12.9%, underscoring the strength of its core business.
Strategic Shift to Fee‑Based Businesses
The firm’s asset and wealth‑management segment now represents roughly 30% of post‑provision revenue, delivering a more predictable and stable income stream. This shift is projected to lift and sustain net margins, providing a durable foundation for future growth.
Shareholder Returns
Goldman Sachs has consistently increased its quarterly dividend, recently raising the payout and maintaining a history of steady dividend growth. This commitment signals confidence in long‑term cash flow and rewards shareholders directly.
Positive Macroeconomic Outlook
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, with the U.S. expected to outperform due to reduced tariff drag and easier financial conditions. Anticipated central bank rate cuts further support a favorable environment for global equities.
Efficiency Gains via AI
The firm plans to leverage AI and digital tools to drive operational efficiency, which can bolster margins and free up capital for strategic initiatives. These technology investments are expected to enhance productivity across its trading and advisory platforms.
Resilient Funding and Liquidity
Goldman Sachs has demonstrated robust liquidity management, successfully meeting private‑credit fund redemption requests without withdrawal limits and issuing new fixed‑income securities to support its capital structure.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$918.89
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$547.06
+68.0% from the low
52-Week High
$984.70
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
+6.10%
3 Month
+3.20%
YTD
+0.5%
1 Year
+64.2%
3Y CAGR
+41.1%
5Y CAGR
+20.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.5x
vs 13.9x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-23.1%
vs -6.4% median
-259% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $285.5B | 15.5x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +8.4% |
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $301.1B | 15.9x | -5.3% | — | Buy | +8.7% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $404.3B | 11.9x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +15.1% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $223.7B | 11.8x | -15.9% | — | Buy | +9.7% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GS Dividend and Capital Return
GS returns capital mainly through $10.2B/year in buybacks (3.6% buyback yield), with a modest 1.47% dividend — combining for 5.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
1.47%
Payout Ratio
31.5%
How GS Splits Its Return
Div 1.47%
Buyback 3.6%
Dividend 1.47%Buybacks 3.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$13.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.9%
5Y Div CAGR
22.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
334M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $9.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $14.00 | +21.7% | — | — |
| 2024 | $11.50 | +9.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% |
| 2023 | $10.50 | +16.7% | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| 2022 | $9.00 | +38.5% | 2.8% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsGS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 55 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 30 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $996, implying +8.4% from the current price of $919. The bear case scenario is $750 and the bull case is $4750.
02What is the GS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GS is $996 based on 55 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1100 (+19.7% from today), and the low-end target is $604 (-34.3%). The base case model target is $1605.
03Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) stock overvalued in 2026?
GS trades at 15.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GS in 2026 are: (1) Equity Market Declines — A significant downturn in equity markets can negatively affect Goldman Sachs' revenue stability, particularly given its reliance on investment banking and trading activities. (2) Capital Markets Activity Slowdown — A substantial slowdown in capital markets activity poses a risk to the firm's revenue streams. (3) Liquidity Access — Inability to access debt markets or sell assets can adversely affect the firm's liquidity, profitability, and overall business operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GS will report consensus revenue of $97.5B (-23.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $61.40 (+16.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $122.3B in revenue.
06When does The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. generate?
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) generated $15.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. GS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($10.2B TTM).