Upside case
Bull case
$502+54.4%
JPM would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
61
analysts
32 bullish · 2 bearish · 61 covering JPM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
31
Hold
27
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$340
+4.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$240 – $502
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
61
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $908.6B
JPM price targets
Three scenarios for where JPM stock could go
Current
~$325
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $325
Bear
$240
Base
$381
Bull
$502
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$381+17.2%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$240-26.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push JPM down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
JPMorgan Chase is a global financial services giant that operates as a universal bank offering consumer banking, investment banking, commercial banking, and asset management services. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (about 50% of total revenue) and non-interest income from investment banking fees, trading, asset management, and card services. The company's key competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, diversified revenue streams, and fortress balance sheet—which together create significant barriers to entry and provide stability through economic cycles.
Market Cap
$908.6B
Revenue TTM
$280.3B
Net Income TTM
$57.0B
Net Margin
20.4%
JPM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.96/$4.48
Revenue
$44.9B/$43.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.07/$4.85
Revenue
$46.4B/$45.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.63/$4.85
Revenue
$45.8B/$46.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.94/$5.47
Revenue
$49.8B/$49.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.96/$4.48 | +10.7% | $44.9B/$43.8B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.07/$4.85 | +4.5% | $46.4B/$45.5B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.63/$4.85 | -4.5% | $45.8B/$46.2B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.94/$5.47 | +8.6% | $49.8B/$49.2B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$287.0B
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$285.5B
-0.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.47
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$23.81
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$100.9B
FCF Margin: 36.0%
Next Earnings
July 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.39
Expected Revenue
$48.7B
JPM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
JPM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $182.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial And Investment Bank
43.0%
+11.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
76.6%
+0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Commercial And Investment Bank is the largest disclosed segment at 43.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.9% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 76.6%, up 0.3% YoY.
JPM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $270 — implies -17.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JPM
16.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
34% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
JPM
16.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
+19% premium
vs JPM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.2x
vs
5Y Average
12.0x
+35% premium
Forward PE
14.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-22%
Financial Services
10.7x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-34%
Financial Services
13.6x
+19%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+35%
PEG Ratio
0.92x
S&P 500
1.66x
-45%
Financial Services
0.95x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+22%
Financial Services
11.4x
+63%
5Y Avg
9.8x
+89%
Price/FCF
9.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-56%
Financial Services
11.1x
-19%
5Y Avg
14.3x
-37%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5%
Financial Services
2.3x
+39%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+14%
Dividend Yield
1.83%
S&P 500
1.91%
-4%
Financial Services
2.63%
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | JPM | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg JPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.6x | 18.8x-22% | 10.7x+37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.2x | 24.4x-34% | 13.6x+19% | 12.0x+35% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.92x | 1.66x-45% | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 15.2x+22% | 11.4x+63% | 9.8x+89% |
| Price/FCF | 9.0x | 20.7x-56% | 11.1x-19% | 14.3x-37% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.3x+39% | 2.8x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.83% | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
JPM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJPM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
JPM generates 15.9% ROE and 1.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$280.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$20.42
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
15.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$343.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$599.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
3.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$34.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.95
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageJPM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Capital Requirements
JPM must maintain specific regulatory capital levels. Failure or changes could restrict its ability to distribute capital to shareholders, repurchase stock, pay dividends, or curtail business activities.
High Risk
Liquidity Constraints
Market-wide illiquidity, government actions, regulatory changes, or unexpected cash/collateral outflows can impact JPM's liquidity, potentially limiting its ability to meet obligations.
High Risk
Credit & Market Concentration
Significant losses can arise from concentrations of credit and market risk if client groups or counterparties share similar business profiles, operate in the same region, or are similarly affected by economic changes.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Risk
Tighter capital rules, supervisory changes, or restrictive interpretations can reduce flexibility in capital deployment and returns. JPM is heavily supervised by U.S. and international regulators.
Medium
Interest Rate Risk
Fluctuations in interest rates can negatively affect the value of debt instruments and impact interest income from floating-rate instruments, potentially eroding earnings.
Medium
Operational & Cyber Risk
The scale of JPM's global operations exposes it to operational disruptions and cyber threats that could impair service delivery and damage client trust.
Medium
Macroeconomic Conditions
Adverse economic and market events, including high asset prices, can negatively affect JPM's results of operations and investment positions, creating additional risk if things go wrong.
Medium
Market & Fee Income Cyclicality
Investment banking fees and market revenues are tied to deal pipelines, volatility, and client activity, making them susceptible to market conditions and potentially reducing fee income during downturns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JPM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Fortress Balance Sheet
JPMorgan Chase boasts a "fortress" balance sheet with a CET1 ratio of 14.5% and a supplementary leverage ratio of 5.8% at the end of 2025. These strong capital metrics provide resilience to invest, lend, and buy back stock even during economic downturns.
Revenue Diversification Across Segments
The bank’s revenue is spread across Consumer & Community Banking (41%), Commercial & Investment Banking (42%), and Asset & Wealth Management (13%). This mix delivers a stable income stream and reduces dependence on any single market.
AI & Technology Investment Push
JPMorgan is actively investing in AI infrastructure and technology, positioning itself as a leader in the disruptive AI space. The firm is particularly constructive on semiconductors and networking stocks, signaling a long‑term growth catalyst.
First‑Mover Stablecoin Initiative
JPMorgan launched JPMD, a deposit token on Coinbase’s Base blockchain, offering 24/7 settlement and institutional‑scale adoption. The bank’s existing infrastructure processes billions in daily blockchain transactions, enabling rapid scaling of JPMD.
Top‑Tier Profitability & Efficiency
JPMorgan’s Return on Assets, Return on Equity, and Return on Invested Capital rank in the top percentiles of its industry, and the bank consistently beats earnings estimates, underscoring its operational excellence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JPM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$325.22
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$269.72
+20.6% from the low
52-Week High
$338.09
-3.8% from the high
1 Month
+8.14%
3 Month
+13.03%
YTD
-0.1%
1 Year
+18.7%
3Y CAGR
+31.7%
5Y CAGR
+17.1%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JPM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.6x
vs 13.2x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
vs +0.8% median
+182% above peer median
Net Margin
20.4%
vs 14.7% median
+39% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $908.6B | 14.6x | +2.4% | 20.4% | Buy | +4.5% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $424.1B | 12.6x | +0.9% | 15.9% | Buy | +8.8% |
WFC WFC Wells Fargo & Company | $264.5B | 11.7x | +0.8% | 17.3% | Hold | +20.9% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $266.5B | 13.2x | -0.5% | 8.5% | Buy | -1.6% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $348.3B | 18.5x | -2.7% | 13.7% | Hold | -11.3% |
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $355.5B | 18.8x | +4.8% | 14.7% | Buy | -9.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JPM Dividend and Capital Return
JPM returns capital mainly through $34.6B/year in buybacks (3.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.83% dividend — combining for 5.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.8%
Dividend Yield
1.83%
Payout Ratio
29.1%
How JPM Splits Its Return
Div 1.83%
Buyback 3.8%
Dividend 1.83%Buybacks 3.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.95
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.5%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$34.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
106M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.8B
At 3.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.50 | — |
| 2025 | $5.55 | +20.7% |
| 2024 | $4.60 | +13.6% |
| 2023 | $4.05 | +1.2% |
| 2022 | $4.00 | +8.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsJPM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 61 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 27 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $340, implying +4.5% from the current price of $325. The bear case scenario is $240 and the bull case is $502.
02What is the JPM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JPM is $340 based on 61 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $391 (+20.2% from today), and the low-end target is $295 (-9.3%). The base case model target is $381.
03Is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) stock overvalued in 2026?
JPM trades at 14.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JPM in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Capital Requirements — JPM must maintain specific regulatory capital levels. (2) Liquidity Constraints — Market-wide illiquidity, government actions, regulatory changes, or unexpected cash/collateral outflows can impact JPM's liquidity, potentially limiting its ability to meet obligations. (3) Credit & Market Concentration — Significant losses can arise from concentrations of credit and market risk if client groups or counterparties share similar business profiles, operate in the same region, or are similarly affected by economic changes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JPM will report consensus revenue of $287.0B (+2.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.47 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $285.5B in revenue.
06When does JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) report its next earnings?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-14. Consensus expects EPS of $5.39 and revenue of $48.7B. Over recent quarters, JPM has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does JPMorgan Chase & Co. generate?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) generated $100.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 36.0%. JPM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($34.6B TTM).