Upside case
Bull case
$599+216.8%
MS would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 35x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 52 covering MS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
24
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$206
+8.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$171 – $599
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $301.1B
MS price targets
Three scenarios for where MS stock could go
Current
~$189
Confidence
69 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $189
Bear
$171
Base
$314
Bull
$599
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$314+65.8%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$171-9.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push MS down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Morgan Stanley
MS · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Morgan Stanley is a global investment bank and wealth management firm that provides financial services to institutions, corporations, and individuals. It generates revenue primarily through investment banking fees (~30%), wealth management fees (~40%), and trading & sales activities (~25%), with the remainder from investment management. The company's competitive advantage lies in its elite brand reputation, global institutional relationships, and integrated platform that connects investment banking with wealth management.
Market Cap
$301.1B
Net Income TTM
$16.2B
MS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.13/$1.98
Revenue
$15.6B/$16.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.80/$2.10
Revenue
$17.1B/$16.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.68/$2.43
Revenue
$17.9B/$17.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.43/$3.02
Revenue
$20.6B/$19.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.13/$1.98 | +7.6% | $15.6B/$16.1B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.80/$2.10 | +33.3% | $17.1B/$16.7B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.68/$2.43 | +10.3% | $17.9B/$17.7B | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.43/$3.02 | +13.6% | $20.6B/$19.7B | +4.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$97.7B
-5.3% YoY
FY2
$115.5B
+18.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.74
+15.6% YoY
FY2
$13.18
+12.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $62.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wealth Management Segment
45.6%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
76.0%
+12.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Wealth Management Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 45.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 8.2% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 76.0%, up 12.7% YoY.
MS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $139 — implies -26.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MS
23.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
5% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MS
23.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+79% premium
vs MS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.8x
vs
5Y Average
14.1x
+69% premium
Forward PE
15.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-17%
Financial Services
10.4x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-5%
Financial Services
13.3x
+79%
5Y Avg
14.1x
+69%
PEG Ratio
2.67x
S&P 500
1.72x
+56%
Financial Services
1.01x
+164%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+69%
Financial Services
11.4x
+125%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+25%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
5.6x
—
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-7%
Financial Services
2.2x
+31%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+29%
Dividend Yield
2.01%
S&P 500
1.87%
+8%
Financial Services
2.70%
-25%
5Y Avg
3.06%
-34%
| Metric | MS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.9x | 19.1x-17% | 10.4x+53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.8x | 25.1x | 13.3x+79% | 14.1x+69% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.67x | 1.72x+56% | 1.01x+164% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.7x | 15.2x+69% | 11.4x+125% | 20.6x+25% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 5.6x |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 2.2x+31% | 2.3x+29% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.01% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
MS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MS generates 14.6% ROE and 1.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.16
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$75.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$284.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
14.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.81
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Over-reliance on OpenAI and AI Growth
Microsoft's future growth is heavily tied to its partnership with OpenAI, which accounts for $281 billion of a $625 billion backlog. A deterioration in this relationship or underperformance by OpenAI could trigger downward revisions to earnings per share. The concentration risk is amplified by the company's heavy investment in AI infrastructure, which may not yield the expected return on investment.
High Risk
Capital Expenditures and Declining Margins
Microsoft spent $37.5 billion on capital expenditures in a single quarter, largely to build AI data centers. This surge in spending has pressured free cash flow and contributed to a year‑over‑year decline in company‑wide gross margins. If capital outlays continue to outpace revenue growth, profitability could be further eroded.
High Risk
Global Economic Conditions and Interest Rates
Morgan Stanley's earnings are highly sensitive to global economic conditions and interest rate movements. Rising rates increase borrowing costs, compress net interest income, and can dampen investment banking activity. Prolonged economic slowdown or elevated rates could materially reduce profitability.
Medium
Service Interruptions and Security Incidents
Frequent outages or security breaches in Microsoft's cloud services can erode customer trust, reduce usage, and trigger compensation demands. As the cloud business scales, even minor disruptions can have outsized financial and reputational impacts.
Medium
Economic and Market Conditions
Inflationary pressures and potential recessions can curtail IT spending, reducing demand for computing power, PCs, servers, and related services. A slowdown in customer spending could delay IT projects and cut cloud usage, negatively affecting revenue.
Medium
Financial and Corporate Risks
Morgan Stanley faces the risk of declining net interest income due to changes in sweep deposits and competitive dynamics. A deterioration in the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio could signal a weakened capital position, limiting the firm’s ability to absorb losses.
Medium
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
Evolving regulatory requirements and the threat of financial crime, such as fraud or money laundering, pose significant compliance challenges. Failure to meet regulatory standards could result in fines, legal actions, or operational restrictions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Azure Growth & Cloud Dominance
Microsoft Azure continues to show strong growth, with revenue increasing in the high‑30s percentage range year‑over‑year. This sustained demand for cloud services, even amidst broader economic uncertainty, highlights Microsoft’s competitive moat in the cloud infrastructure space.
AI Monetization via Azure & Copilot
Microsoft is positioned to monetize AI across both infrastructure (Azure) and applications (Copilot, GitHub Copilot). The company’s significant AI investments are backed by a substantial backlog of commercial contracts (RPO) of $625 billion, providing strong revenue visibility.
Enterprise Lock‑in & Recurring Revenue
Microsoft’s established enterprise productivity software, such as Microsoft 365, creates a stable base of recurring revenue and a strong ecosystem that benefits its cloud and AI offerings.
Strong Financial Backbone
Microsoft has demonstrated robust financial performance, with consistent revenue and earnings growth. Its strong balance sheet and cash generation support continued investment in AI infrastructure.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$189.21
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$117.21
+61.4% from the low
52-Week High
$194.59
-2.8% from the high
1 Month
+13.66%
3 Month
+7.60%
YTD
+4.0%
1 Year
+58.2%
3Y CAGR
+30.6%
5Y CAGR
+17.5%
10Y CAGR
+21.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.9x
vs 11.9x median
+33% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-5.3%
vs -15.9% median
+67% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $301.1B | 15.9x | -5.3% | — | Buy | +8.7% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $285.5B | 15.5x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +8.4% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $404.3B | 11.9x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +15.1% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $223.7B | 11.8x | -15.9% | — | Buy | +9.7% |
WFC WFC Wells Fargo & Company | $247.1B | 11.4x | -13.2% | — | Hold | +22.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MS Dividend and Capital Return
MS returns 3.4% total yield, led by a 2.01% dividend, raised 11 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
2.01%
Payout Ratio
45.8%
How MS Splits Its Return
Div 2.01%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 2.01%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.81
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-7.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.85 | +8.5% | — | — |
| 2024 | $3.55 | +9.2% | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $3.25 | +10.2% | 4.0% | 7.8% |
| 2022 | $2.95 | +40.5% | 7.5% | 11.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Morgan Stanley (MS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Morgan Stanley (MS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $206, implying +8.7% from the current price of $189. The bear case scenario is $171 and the bull case is $599.
02What is the MS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MS is $206 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $211 (+11.5% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (+5.7%). The base case model target is $314.
03Is Morgan Stanley (MS) stock overvalued in 2026?
MS trades at 15.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Morgan Stanley (MS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MS in 2026 are: (1) Over-reliance on OpenAI and AI Growth — Microsoft's future growth is heavily tied to its partnership with OpenAI, which accounts for $281 billion of a $625 billion backlog. (2) Capital Expenditures and Declining Margins — Microsoft spent $37. (3) Global Economic Conditions and Interest Rates — Morgan Stanley's earnings are highly sensitive to global economic conditions and interest rate movements. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Morgan Stanley's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MS will report consensus revenue of $97.7B (-5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.74 (+15.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $115.5B in revenue.
06When does Morgan Stanley (MS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Morgan Stanley generate?
Morgan Stanley (MS) had a free cash outflow of $6.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($4.2B TTM).