Upside case
Bull case
$56+206.7%
HL would need investors to value it at roughly 59x earnings — about 40x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Hecla Mining Company (HL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
9 bullish · 3 bearish · 26 covering HL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
14
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$24
+31.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $56
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.2B
HL price targets
Three scenarios for where HL stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Base
$46
Bull
$56
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$46+155.6%
At 49x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hecla Mining Company
HL · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Hecla Mining is a precious metals mining company that operates silver and gold mines primarily in the United States and Canada. It generates revenue by selling silver and gold concentrates and doré bars—with silver contributing roughly two-thirds of revenue and gold about one-third—to custom smelters and metal traders. The company's competitive advantage lies in its high-grade, long-life mines—particularly Greens Creek and Lucky Friday—which are among the largest and lowest-cost silver producers in North America.
Market Cap
$12.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.6B
Net Income TTM
$559M
Net Margin
35.6%
HL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+70.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$261M/$249M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.05
Revenue
$304M/$258M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.10
Revenue
$410M/$295M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.16
Revenue
$448M/$401M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.04/$0.03 | +33.3% | $261M/$249M | +5.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.05 | +60.0% | $304M/$258M | +18.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12/$0.10 | +23.7% | $410M/$295M | +38.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.19/$0.16 | +16.6% | $448M/$401M | +11.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.1B
+30.3% YoY
FY2
$2.7B
+29.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.02
+22.5% YoY
FY2
$1.25
+23.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$472M
FCF Margin: 30.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.27
Expected Revenue
$420M
HL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $951M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Silver Contracts
43.5%
+37.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
50.4%
+21.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Silver Contracts is the largest disclosed segment at 43.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 37.0% YoY.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 50.4%, up 21.9% YoY.
HL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $16 — implies -8.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HL
37.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+47% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
HL
37.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+62% premium
vs HL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.0x
vs
5Y Average
69.0x
46% discount
Forward PE
19.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+0%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+47%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+62%
5Y Avg
69.0x
-46%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+13%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+52%
5Y Avg
19.5x
-11%
Price/FCF
39.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+84%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+43%
5Y Avg
33.0x
+19%
Price/Sales
8.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+173%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+335%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+78%
Dividend Yield
0.08%
S&P 500
1.88%
-96%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-94%
5Y Avg
0.51%
-84%
| Metric | HL | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg HL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.1x | 19.1x | 15.4x+24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.0x | 25.2x+47% | 22.9x+62% | 69.0x-46% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.3x | 15.3x+13% | 11.4x+52% | 19.5x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 39.2x | 21.3x+84% | 27.5x+43% | 33.0x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 8.6x | 3.1x+173% | 2.0x+335% | 4.8x+78% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.08% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 0.51% |
HL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HL generates $472M in free cash flow at a 30.0% margin — 15.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+57.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$472M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$242M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$57M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.1× FCF
~0.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$885000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
671M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Production Guidance and Costs
Concerns around softer 2026 production guidance and higher costs have recently impacted the stock. A guided production decline in 2026 implies lower near-term revenue and cash flow, increasing reliance on cost control or higher metal prices to maintain margins.
High Risk
Market and Commodity Volatility
The stock has high beta and can experience sharp declines if commodity prices fall. Historical downturns show HL stock has fallen more significantly than the S&P 500 during economic crises.
High Risk
Valuation
Some analyses suggest the stock may be overvalued, with elevated P/E and price-to-sales ratios compared to peers. This raises the risk of multiple compression if silver prices stall or a metals rally reverses.
Medium
Cyclicality and Consistency
The company's financial performance can be cyclical, with prior years showing weaker or negative profitability and inconsistent free cash flow. This cyclicality can lead to unpredictable financial results.
Medium
Project Timelines and Capital Demands
Risks include rising capital and operating demands at assets like Keno Hill, where cost creep or delays could offset balance sheet benefits. Project timelines, such as the Keno Hill ramp-up, are also a consideration.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
This involves challenges in converting assets to cash quickly and the potential inability to meet short-term financial obligations. Such liquidity constraints can impact operational flexibility.
Lower
Issuer Risk
This general financial risk refers to potential declines in value due to factors like insolvency, financial performance, financing availability, financial leverage, and reputation of the issuer.
Lower
Interest Rate Risk
Fluctuations in interest rates can impact the value of financial instruments. Changes in rates may affect the company's cost of capital and overall financial health.
Lower
Credit Risk
This is the risk of financial loss from a borrower defaulting on their obligations. Credit risk can affect the company's ability to secure financing or manage debt.
Lower
Operational Risk
Potential losses can arise from internal process failures, inadequate systems, human error, or external events. These risks can disrupt operations and affect profitability.
Lower
Sale of Assets
The sale of the Casa Berardi mine may put pressure on near-term cash flow and long-term mine life. This divestiture could impact the company's revenue generation capabilities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Resilient Fundamentals and Growth
Haleon has strong underlying momentum with resilient fundamentals, maintaining a 'Buy' rating from analysts like Sarah Simon at Morgan Stanley. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for mid-to-high single-digit operating profit growth despite a slight miss on first-quarter organic sales.
Strong Oral Health Performance
The Oral Health franchise is a key driver for Haleon, growing significantly ahead of both the group and the market. This segment is expected to support durable, innovation-led expansion and margin improvements.
Innovation and Investment
Haleon is increasing its investment in Advertising & Promotion (A&P) and Research & Development (R&D) by over 7% each. This strategic investment is crucial for driving brand growth and fostering innovation.
Financial Stability and Shareholder Returns
The company targets 4-6% annual organic revenue growth and high single-digit adjusted operating profit growth in the medium term. Haleon returned over £1.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 and announced a £500 million share buyback for 2026.
Positive Analyst Ratings
Multiple analysts maintain 'Buy' ratings for Haleon, with Zacks Investment Research awarding it a 'Growth Score A,' 'Value Score A,' 'Momentum Score A,' and 'VGM Score A.' This reflects strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.
Operational Turnaround and Production Growth
Hecla Mining has executed a significant operational turnaround, achieving silver production of 17 million ounces with projections to reach 20 million ounces annually. This turnaround has led to substantial improvements in free cash flow and a reduction in leverage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$18.15
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.65
+290.3% from the low
52-Week High
$34.17
-46.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.07%
3 Month
-20.29%
YTD
-3.8%
1 Year
+268.2%
3Y CAGR
+43.4%
5Y CAGR
+20.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.1x
vs 11.0x median
+73% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+30.3%
vs +32.9% median
-8% below peer median
Net Margin
35.6%
vs 27.6% median
+29% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $12.2B | 19.1x | +30.3% | 35.6% | Hold | +31.3% |
PAA PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | $23.8B | 12.1x | +32.9% | 27.1% | Buy | +32.5% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $12.0B | 9.4x | +66.3% | 31.1% | Buy | +54.7% |
EXK EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. | $2.7B | 13.2x | +29.1% | -28.4% | Buy | +36.9% |
FSM FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. | $3.0B | 6.7x | +9.7% | 27.6% | Buy | +42.3% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HL Dividend and Capital Return
HL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.09%
Payout Ratio
3.1%
How HL Splits Its Return
Div 0.09%
Dividend 0.09%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-12.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$885000
Estimated Shares Retired
48.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
671M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.01 | -62.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2024 | $0.04 | +60.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $0.03 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2022 | $0.02 | -40.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hecla Mining Company (HL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hecla Mining Company (HL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $24, implying +31.3% from the current price of $18.
02What is the HL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HL is $24 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $37 (+101.1% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (-28.4%). The base case model target is $46.
03Is Hecla Mining Company (HL) stock overvalued in 2026?
HL trades at 19.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hecla Mining Company (HL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HL in 2026 are: (1) Production Guidance and Costs — Concerns around softer 2026 production guidance and higher costs have recently impacted the stock. (2) Market and Commodity Volatility — The stock has high beta and can experience sharp declines if commodity prices fall. (3) Valuation — Some analyses suggest the stock may be overvalued, with elevated P/E and price-to-sales ratios compared to peers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hecla Mining Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HL will report consensus revenue of $2.1B (+30.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.02 (+22.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.7B in revenue.
06When does Hecla Mining Company (HL) report its next earnings?
Hecla Mining Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.27 and revenue of $420M. Over recent quarters, HL has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Hecla Mining Company generate?
Hecla Mining Company (HL) generated $472M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.0%. HL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($885000 TTM).