Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing PAAS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 24 covering PAAS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+29.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$0 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.4B
PAAS price targets
Three scenarios for where PAAS stock could go
Current
~$58
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $58
Bear
$0
Base
$88
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$88+51.9%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$0-99.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push PAAS down roughly 100% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS · NASDAQBasic MaterialsSilverDecember year-end
Pan American Silver is a primary silver mining company that operates mines across the Americas to produce silver, gold, and base metals. It generates revenue primarily from selling silver and gold bullion — with silver contributing roughly 40-50% of revenue and gold 30-40% — along with smaller contributions from zinc, lead, and copper. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines in stable jurisdictions and its position as one of the world's largest primary silver producers.
Market Cap
$24.4B
Revenue TTM
$4.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
31.7%
PAAS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.40
Revenue
$812M/$861M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.49
Revenue
$855M/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.11/$0.90
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.06
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.43/$0.40 | +7.5% | $812M/$861M | -5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.48/$0.49 | -2.0% | $855M/$1.2B | -26.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11/$0.90 | +23.3% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09/$1.06 | +2.8% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -5.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+32.9% YoY
FY2
$6.0B
+23.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.33
+42.7% YoY
FY2
$3.96
+19.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 34.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PAAS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PAAS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refined Silver and Gold
81.0%
+23.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Refined Silver and Gold is the largest disclosed segment at 81.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.7% YoY.
PAAS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $56 — implies +7.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAAS
22.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
12% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
PAAS
22.1x
vs
Basic Materials
23.4x
5% discount
vs PAAS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.1x
vs
5Y Average
46.5x
52% discount
Forward PE
12.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Basic Materials
15.3x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-12%
Basic Materials
23.4x
-5%
5Y Avg
46.5x
-52%
PEG Ratio
0.88x
S&P 500
1.70x
-48%
Basic Materials
1.19x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-9%
Basic Materials
11.2x
+25%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-32%
Price/FCF
22.5x
S&P 500
21.4x
+5%
Basic Materials
28.0x
-20%
5Y Avg
36.7x
-39%
Price/Sales
6.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+115%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+229%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+109%
Dividend Yield
0.81%
S&P 500
1.90%
-57%
Basic Materials
1.39%
-42%
5Y Avg
1.89%
-57%
| Metric | PAAS | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg PAAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.4x | 19.1x-35% | 15.3x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.1x | 25.1x-12% | 23.4x | 46.5x-52% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.88x | 1.70x-48% | 1.19x-26% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 15.3x | 11.2x+25% | 20.6x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 22.5x | 21.4x | 28.0x-20% | 36.7x-39% |
| Price/Sales | 6.6x | 3.1x+115% | 2.0x+229% | 3.2x+109% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.81% | 1.90% | 1.39% | 1.89% |
PAAS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAAS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PAAS generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 34.0% margin — 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+34.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
37.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$277M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$47M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
421M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAAS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Precious Metals Price Volatility
Pan American Silver's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in silver and gold prices. A significant drop in these prices, potentially triggered by rising interest rates or broader economic downturns, could lead to substantial declines in PAAS stock.
High Risk
Execution Risk
There is a risk that Pan American Silver may not meet its production targets or that projected cost efficiencies might not materialize, particularly during significant production ramp-ups. This could adversely affect the company's financial performance.
High Risk
Geographic Concentration
A significant portion of Pan American Silver's mines are located in Mexico, Guatemala, and South America, exposing the company to country-specific political and economic risks. Any instability in these regions could negatively impact operations and profitability.
Medium
Broader Market Pullbacks
The stock can be affected by general market sentiment and economic trends, even if the company itself is performing well. Broader market pullbacks can lead to declines in PAAS stock irrespective of its fundamentals.
Medium
Inflation and Operating Costs
Rising inflation can increase operating costs for miners, including fuel, chemicals, steel, and labor. This can pressure profit margins and impact overall profitability for Pan American Silver.
Medium
Capital Expenditures
Pan American Silver has significant capital expenditure projections for maintaining and expanding operations, which can impact free cash flow. High capital costs may limit financial flexibility and growth opportunities.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
At times, PAAS stock has traded at stretched valuations, with price-to-earnings ratios considered high compared to industry peers. This suggests the stock might be priced for perfection, increasing the risk of a valuation correction.
Lower
Insider Selling
Heavy insider selling can sometimes signal limited upside potential for the stock. If insiders are selling shares, it may indicate a lack of confidence in future performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAAS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Extensive Silver Reserves
Pan American Silver holds the largest silver reserves globally, significantly more than competitors like Hecla Mining. This extensive reserve base provides a strong foundation for long-term production and value creation.
Production Growth and Cost Efficiency
The company is on track to produce 25-27 million ounces of silver annually, with a projected 14% increase in attributable silver production for 2026. Furthermore, they have achieved low costs per ounce of silver, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $17/oz at current silver prices.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of MAG Silver Corp. in September 2025, which included a 44% interest in the Juanicipio mine, has been a significant positive development. This acquisition has bolstered production and reserves, contributing to the company's growth trajectory.
Favorable Market Conditions
The precious metals market, particularly silver, is experiencing a bull run. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit for silver in 2026, supporting a bullish outlook for silver prices.
Financial Strength and Growth Catalysts
Pan American Silver maintains a strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and liquidity, enabling it to fund growth initiatives like the La Colorada expansion. This expansion is expected to drive significant free cash flow and industry-leading scale.
AI-Driven Strong Buy Rating
An AI model from Danelfin has assigned Pan American Silver a 'Strong Buy' rating with an AI Score of 10/10, indicating a 66% probability of outperforming the market in the next three months.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAAS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$57.81
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.08
+161.8% from the low
52-Week High
$69.99
-17.4% from the high
1 Month
+2.86%
3 Month
-1.97%
YTD
+13.3%
1 Year
+135.3%
3Y CAGR
+47.8%
5Y CAGR
+10.6%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAAS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.4x
vs 14.3x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.9%
vs +34.6% median
-5% below peer median
Net Margin
31.7%
vs 30.5% median
+4% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAA PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | $24.4B | 12.4x | +32.9% | 31.7% | Buy | +29.7% |
AG AG First Majestic Silver Corp. | $10.6B | 20.4x | +34.6% | 13.7% | Hold | +24.0% |
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $12.1B | 19.1x | +30.3% | 35.6% | Hold | +31.7% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $11.6B | 9.1x | +48.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +60.1% |
EXK EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. | $3.0B | 14.3x | +29.1% | -28.4% | Buy | +25.6% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $125.7B | 10.9x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +21.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAAS Dividend and Capital Return
PAAS returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.81% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.81%
Payout Ratio
17.9%
How PAAS Splits Its Return
Div 0.81%
Dividend 0.81%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.7%
5Y Div CAGR
15.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$47M
Estimated Shares Retired
809.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
421M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.46 | +15.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | -11.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $0.45 | +32.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAAS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +29.7% from the current price of $58.
02What is the PAAS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAAS is $75 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $94 (+62.6% from today), and the low-end target is $54 (-6.6%). The base case model target is $88.
03Is Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAAS trades at 12.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAAS in 2026 are: (1) Precious Metals Price Volatility — Pan American Silver's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in silver and gold prices. (2) Execution Risk — There is a risk that Pan American Silver may not meet its production targets or that projected cost efficiencies might not materialize, particularly during significant production ramp-ups. (3) Geographic Concentration — A significant portion of Pan American Silver's mines are located in Mexico, Guatemala, and South America, exposing the company to country-specific political and economic risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Pan American Silver Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAAS will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+32.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.33 (+42.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.0B in revenue.
06When does Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PAAS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Pan American Silver Corp. generate?
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.0%. PAAS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($47M TTM).