Upside case
Bull case
$66+34.8%
PAAS would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
13 bullish · 2 bearish · 25 covering PAAS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$74
+51.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$32 – $66
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.6B
PAAS price targets
Three scenarios for where PAAS stock could go
Current
~$49
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $49
Bear
$32
Base
$50
Bull
$66
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$50+2.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PAAS — at roughly 11x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$32-35.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PAAS down roughly 36% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS · NASDAQBasic MaterialsSilverDecember year-end
Pan American Silver is a primary silver mining company that operates mines across the Americas to produce silver, gold, and base metals. It generates revenue primarily from selling silver and gold bullion — with silver contributing roughly 40-50% of revenue and gold 30-40% — along with smaller contributions from zinc, lead, and copper. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines in stable jurisdictions and its position as one of the world's largest primary silver producers.
Market Cap
$20.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
31.7%
PAAS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.40
Revenue
$812M/$861M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.49
Revenue
$855M/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.11/$0.90
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.06
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.43/$0.40 | +7.5% | $812M/$861M | -5.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.48/$0.49 | -2.0% | $855M/$1.2B | -26.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11/$0.90 | +23.3% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09/$1.06 | +2.8% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -5.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.6B
+13.4% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.92
-3.3% YoY
FY2
$2.72
-6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 34.0%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.06
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
PAAS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PAAS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refined Silver and Gold
81.0%
+23.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Refined Silver and Gold is the largest disclosed segment at 81.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.7% YoY.
PAAS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $83 — implies +70.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
70.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAAS
18.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
PAAS
18.8x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
20% discount
vs PAAS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.8x
vs
5Y Average
46.5x
60% discount
Forward PE
10.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-44%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-20%
5Y Avg
46.5x
-60%
PEG Ratio
0.75x
S&P 500
1.66x
-55%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-39%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-22%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+8%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-43%
Price/FCF
19.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-8%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-34%
5Y Avg
36.7x
-48%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+81%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+198%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+77%
Dividend Yield
0.95%
S&P 500
1.91%
-50%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-32%
5Y Avg
1.89%
-50%
| Metric | PAAS | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg PAAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.6x | 18.8x-44% | 14.9x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.8x | 24.4x-23% | 23.6x-20% | 46.5x-60% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.75x | 1.66x-55% | 1.23x-39% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8x | 15.2x-22% | 11.0x | 20.6x-43% |
| Price/FCF | 19.1x | 20.7x | 29.0x-34% | 36.7x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+81% | 1.9x+198% | 3.2x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.95% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.89% |
PAAS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAAS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PAAS generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 34.0% margin — 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+34.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
37.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$277M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$47M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.47
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
421M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAAS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Production Guidance Risk
Pan American Silver's 2026 guidance indicates significant growth targets (14% at midpoint for silver), which may be challenging to achieve and could lead to disappointment if unmet.
Medium
Cost Inflation Pressure
The company's outlook includes capital investments and expenditures, suggesting exposure to rising operational and capital costs in the mining sector.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
As a silver and gold producer, Pan American Silver is vulnerable to fluctuations in precious metal prices, impacting revenue and profitability.
Lower
Regulatory Compliance
Changes in PAN application forms (e.g., Form 49A) from 2026 may introduce administrative hurdles, though likely minor for an established company.
High Risk
Execution Risk
The ambitious production growth targets (25-27Moz silver, 700-750koz gold) carry execution risks, including delays or operational setbacks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAAS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Silver revaluation optionality
Pan American Silver Corp. is highlighted for its potential to benefit from a revaluation of silver prices, offering significant upside.
Leading producer in Americas
PAAS is the top producer of silver and gold in the Americas, with 12 operating projects and 2 in development, providing strong operational scale.
Exposure to high metal prices
The company is well-positioned to capitalize on sustained high gold and silver prices, driving revenue and profitability.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses from sources like r/wallstreetbets and X.com highlight growing investor confidence in PAAS's growth potential.
Strategic project pipeline
With projects spanning from Eastern Canada to Argentina, PAAS has a diversified and strategic pipeline to support long-term production growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAAS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$49.00
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$26.77
+83.0% from the low
52-Week High
$69.99
-30.0% from the high
1 Month
-11.22%
3 Month
-5.39%
YTD
-4.0%
1 Year
+69.1%
3Y CAGR
+49.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.7%
10Y CAGR
+12.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAAS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.6x
vs 10.3x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.4%
vs +12.9% median
+4% above peer median
Net Margin
31.7%
vs 30.5% median
+4% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAA PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | $20.6B | 10.6x | +13.4% | 31.7% | Buy | +51.8% |
AG AG First Majestic Silver Corp. | $8.9B | 20.3x | +9.9% | 19.7% | Hold | +49.3% |
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $10.7B | 19.0x | +8.9% | 35.6% | Hold | +46.3% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $11.4B | 10.2x | +12.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +55.3% |
EXK EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. | $2.5B | 10.3x | +12.9% | -3.5% | Buy | +48.1% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAAS Dividend and Capital Return
PAAS returns 1.2% total yield, led by a 0.95% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.95%
Payout Ratio
17.9%
How PAAS Splits Its Return
Div 0.95%
Dividend 0.95%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.47
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.7%
5Y Div CAGR
15.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$47M
Estimated Shares Retired
955.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
421M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.46 | +15.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $0.40 | -11.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $0.45 | +32.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAAS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $74, implying +51.8% from the current price of $49. The bear case scenario is $32 and the bull case is $66.
02What is the PAAS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAAS is $74 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $94 (+91.8% from today), and the low-end target is $54 (+10.2%). The base case model target is $50.
03Is Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAAS trades at 10.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAAS in 2026 are: (1) Production Guidance Risk — Pan American Silver's 2026 guidance indicates significant growth targets (14% at midpoint for silver), which may be challenging to achieve and could lead to disappointment if unmet. (2) Execution Risk — The ambitious production growth targets (25-27Moz silver, 700-750koz gold) carry execution risks, including delays or operational setbacks. (3) Cost Inflation Pressure — The company's outlook includes capital investments and expenditures, suggesting exposure to rising operational and capital costs in the mining sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Pan American Silver Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAAS will report consensus revenue of $4.6B (+13.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.92 (-3.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) report its next earnings?
Pan American Silver Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.06 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, PAAS has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Pan American Silver Corp. generate?
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.0%. PAAS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($47M TTM).