Revenue growth decelerated to 0.5% YoY in 2026Q4, with gross margin stable near 20-22%, but operating margin plunged to -17.3% in 2026Q4 due to R&D and SG&A spikes, before recovering to 8.8% in 2027Q1.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) annual income statement — 30-year revenue, gross profit & net income history
| Metric | TTM | Mar'26 | Mar'25 | Mar'24 | Mar'23 | Mar'22 | Mar'21 | Mar'20 | Mar'19 | Mar'18 | Mar'17 | Mar'16 | Mar'15 | Mar'14 | Mar'13 | Mar'12 | Mar'11 | Mar'10 | Mar'09 | Mar'08 | Mar'07 | Mar'06 | Mar'05 | Mar'04 | Mar'03 | Mar'02 | Mar'01 | Mar'00 | Mar'99 | Mar'98 | Mar'97 |
|---|
| Sales/Revenue | 22.52T | 21.8T | 21.69T | 20.43T | 16.91T | 14.55T | 13.17T | 14.93T | 15.89T | 15.36T | 14T | 14.6T | 12.65T | 11.84T | 9.88T | 7.95T | 8.94T | 8.58T | 10.01T | 11.97T | 11.09T | 9.91T | 8.65T | 8.15T | 7.96T | 7.34T | 6.58T | 5.9T | 6.16T | 6.04T | 5.28T |
| Revenue Growth % | 4.13% | 0.5% | 6.17% | 20.83% | 16.18% | 10.49% | -11.79% | -6.03% | 3.43% | 9.73% | -4.12% | 15.45% | 6.79% | 19.89% | 24.28% | -11.06% | 4.17% | -14.3% | -16.35% | 7.94% | 11.92% | 14.47% | 6.12% | 2.44% | 8.4% | 11.62% | 11.44% | -4.09% | 1.83% | 14.49% | 23.29% |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 18.64T | 18.19T | 17.02T | 16.02T | 13.58T | 11.57T | 10.44T | 11.85T | 12.58T | 12T | 10.87T | 11.33T | 9.45T | 8.76T | 7.35T | 5.92T | 6.5T | 6.41T | 7.42T | 8.52T | 7.87T | 7.01T | 6.04T | 5.6T | 5.4T | 5.02T | 4.64T | 3.9T | 3.99T | 4.02T | 3.55T |
| COGS % of Revenue | - | 83.47% | 78.5% | 78.4% | 80.3% | 79.49% | 79.27% | 79.38% | 79.18% | 78.12% | 77.62% | 77.61% | 74.74% | 73.98% | 74.36% | 74.48% | 72.7% | 74.77% | 74.11% | 71.18% | 70.94% | 70.75% | 69.8% | 68.73% | 67.87% | 68.4% | 70.51% | 66.14% | 64.87% | 66.5% | 67.2% |
| Gross Profit | 3.88T | 3.6T | 4.66T | 4.41T | 3.33T | 2.98T | 2.73T | 3.08T | 3.31T | 3.36T | 3.13T | 3.27T | 3.19T | 3.08T | 2.53T | 2.03T | 2.44T | 2.16T | 2.59T | 3.45T | 3.22T | 2.9T | 2.61T | 2.55T | 2.56T | 2.32T | 1.94T | 2T | 2.16T | 2.03T | 1.73T |
| Gross Margin % | 17.23% | 16.53% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 19.7% | 20.51% | 20.73% | 20.62% | 20.82% | 21.88% | 22.38% | 22.39% | 25.26% | 26.02% | 25.64% | 25.52% | 27.3% | 25.23% | 25.89% | 28.82% | 29.06% | 29.25% | 30.2% | 31.27% | 32.13% | 31.6% | 29.49% | 33.86% | 35.13% | 33.5% | 32.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | -22.74% | 5.71% | 32.43% | 11.62% | 9.3% | -11.32% | -6.9% | -1.57% | 7.25% | -4.14% | 2.32% | 3.68% | 21.66% | 24.86% | -16.87% | 12.73% | -16.48% | -24.87% | 7.05% | 11.22% | 10.87% | 2.46% | -0.29% | 10.24% | 19.58% | -2.93% | -7.56% | 6.78% | 16.93% | 34.06% |
| Operating Expenses | 4.01T | 4.02T | 3.45T | 3.03T | 2.55T | 2.11T | 2.07T | 2.45T | 2.58T | 2.53T | 2.29T | 2.77T | 2.33T | 2.09T | 1.99T | 1.8T | 1.87T | 1.8T | 2.4T | 2.5T | 2.37T | 2.03T | 1.98T | 1.95T | 1.87T | 1.7T | 1.53T | 1.59T | 1.62T | 1.56T | 1.33T |
| OpEx % of Revenue | - | 18.43% | 15.91% | 14.83% | 15.09% | 14.52% | 15.72% | 16.38% | 16.25% | 16.45% | 16.38% | 18.94% | 18.4% | 17.66% | 20.13% | 22.61% | 20.93% | 20.99% | 23.99% | 20.88% | 21.38% | 20.48% | 22.9% | 23.92% | 23.48% | 23.14% | 23.2% | 26.87% | 26.33% | 25.8% | 25.22% |
| Selling, General & Admin | 2.52T | 2.48T | 2.35T | 2.11T | 1.67T | 1.33T | 1.33T | 1.64T | 1.77T | 1.78T | 1.62T | 2.11T | 1.72T | 1.49T | 1.43T | 1.28T | 1.38T | 1.34T | 1.84T | 1.91T | 1.82T | 1.66T | 1.51T | 1.5T | 1.43T | 1.3T | 1.17T | 1.1T | 1.14T | 1.12T | 940.13B |
| SG&A % of Revenue | - | 11.36% | 10.84% | 10.31% | 9.88% | 9.12% | 10.11% | 10.99% | 11.17% | 11.56% | 11.59% | 14.44% | 13.6% | 12.61% | 14.45% | 16.07% | 15.47% | 15.59% | 18.37% | 15.98% | 16.4% | 16.72% | 17.49% | 18.42% | 18% | 17.75% | 17.74% | 18.57% | 18.47% | 18.48% | 17.81% |
| Research & Development | 1.49T | 1.54T | 1.1T | 923.63B | 880.91B | 787.06B | 738.89B | 804.12B | 806.9B | 751.86B | 691.43B | 656.5B | 606.16B | 598.37B | 560.27B | 519.82B | 487.59B | 463.35B | 563.2B | 586.3B | 551.87B | 510.36B | 467.96B | 448.5B | 436.26B | 394.21B | 359.12B | 323.35B | 307.86B | 288.01B | 250.48B |
| R&D % of Revenue | - | 7.07% | 5.07% | 4.52% | 5.21% | 5.41% | 5.61% | 5.39% | 5.08% | 4.89% | 4.94% | 4.5% | 4.79% | 5.05% | 5.67% | 6.54% | 5.46% | 5.4% | 5.63% | 4.9% | 4.98% | 5.15% | 5.41% | 5.5% | 5.48% | 5.37% | 5.46% | 5.48% | 5% | 4.76% | 4.74% |
| Other Operating Expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -21.39B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -99.71M | 117.82M | -138.06B | 0 | 0 | 117.97M | 1.73B | -51.2M | 166.63B | 175.52B | 154.49B | 140.99B |
| Operating Income | -127.75B | -414.35B | 1.21T | 1.38T | 780.77B | 871.23B | 660.21B | 633.64B | 726.37B | 833.56B | 840.71B | 503.38B | 670.6B | 823.86B | 544.81B | 231.36B | 569.77B | 363.77B | 189.64B | 950.34B | 851.96B | 868.76B | 631.17B | 599.56B | 688.49B | 662.29B | 414.22B | 412.59B | 542.05B | 465.78B | 400.41B |
| Operating Margin % | -0.57% | -1.9% | 5.59% | 6.76% | 4.62% | 5.99% | 5.01% | 4.24% | 4.57% | 5.43% | 6.01% | 3.45% | 5.3% | 6.96% | 5.52% | 2.91% | 6.38% | 4.24% | 1.89% | 7.94% | 7.68% | 8.77% | 7.29% | 7.35% | 8.65% | 9.02% | 6.3% | 6.99% | 8.81% | 7.71% | 7.58% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | -134.15% | -12.19% | 77% | -10.38% | 31.96% | 4.19% | -12.77% | -12.86% | -0.85% | 67.01% | -24.94% | -18.6% | 51.22% | 135.48% | -59.39% | 56.63% | 91.82% | -80.04% | 11.55% | -1.93% | 37.64% | 5.27% | -12.92% | 3.96% | 59.89% | 0.39% | -23.88% | 16.38% | 16.33% | 176.83% |
| EBITDA | 1.17T | -329.49B | 1.96T | 2.18T | 1.5T | 2.35T | 2.09T | 2.1T | 2.2T | 2.29T | 2.18T | 1.16T | 1.3T | 1.41T | 1.14T | 762.12B | 1.13T | 993.45B | 827.29B | 1.47T | 1.22T | 1.13T | 857.01B | 812.76B | 909.1B | 856.74B | 587.6B | 579.22B | 717.57B | 620.27B | 541.39B |
| EBITDA Margin % | 5.2% | -1.51% | 9.02% | 10.65% | 8.89% | 16.14% | 15.83% | 14.03% | 13.82% | 14.89% | 15.55% | 7.97% | 10.25% | 11.92% | 11.49% | 9.59% | 12.68% | 11.58% | 8.26% | 12.26% | 11.03% | 11.42% | 9.9% | 9.97% | 11.42% | 11.67% | 8.93% | 9.81% | 11.66% | 10.26% | 10.25% |
| EBITDA Growth % | -52.22% | -116.84% | -10.11% | 44.86% | -36.02% | 12.6% | -0.46% | -4.56% | -4.05% | 5.08% | 87.02% | -10.17% | -8.23% | 24.37% | 48.96% | -32.76% | 14.09% | 20.09% | -43.62% | 19.93% | 8.17% | 31.97% | 5.44% | -10.6% | 6.11% | 45.8% | 1.45% | -19.28% | 15.69% | 14.57% | 100.13% |
| D&A (Non-Cash Add-back) | 1.3T | 0 | 742.86B | 794.37B | 721.63B | 1.48T | 1.43T | 1.46T | 1.47T | 1.45T | 1.34T | 660.71B | 625.23B | 588.13B | 590.47B | 530.76B | 563.64B | 629.67B | 637.64B | 516.9B | 371.49B | 262.24B | 225.83B | 213.2B | 220.61B | 194.45B | 173.38B | 166.63B | 175.52B | 154.49B | 140.99B |
| EBIT | -1.41B | -329.49B | 1.37T | 1.7T | 915.68B | 884.54B | 655.2B | 814.61B | 992.59B | 1.13T | 1.02T | 653.6B | 824.43B | 946.71B | 501.05B | 267.78B | 639.02B | 348.75B | 184.28B | 950.34B | 851.96B | 868.76B | 631.17B | 599.56B | 688.49B | 662.29B | 499.14B | 412.59B | 542.05B | 465.78B | 400.41B |
| Net Interest Income | 99.41B | 95.9B | 136.22B | 114.06B | 36.96B | 8.76B | 55.89M | 227.39M | 40.48B | 31.11B | 24.85B | 8.95B | 12.35B | 18.64B | -55.92B | 26.04B | 60.77B | -27.58B | 18.69B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Income | 188.6B | 179.47B | 191.13B | 173.69B | 73.07B | 25.63B | 186.74M | 454.46M | 48.62B | 41.19B | 32.39B | 28.47B | 25.62B | 24.03B | 16.8B | 33.46B | 23.58B | 18.23B | 41.23B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Expense | 89.19B | 83.56B | 54.91B | 59.63B | 36.11B | 16.87B | 130.84M | 227.08M | 13.22B | 12.97B | 12.47B | 18.15B | 16.6B | 12.7B | 12.16B | 10.38B | 8.47B | 12.55B | 22.54B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Income/Expense | 37.14B | 11.05B | 104.15B | 260.41B | 98.8B | 198.96B | 253.84B | 156.28B | 253B | 281.42B | 166.28B | 132.07B | 135.63B | 110.04B | -55.92B | 26.04B | 60.77B | -27.58B | -27.91B | -57.13B | -59.03B | -38.86B | 25.95B | 41.81B | -17.7B | -69.91B | 3.66B | 6.41B | -13.86B | -412.58M | 8.75B |
| Pretax Income | -90.61B | -403.3B | 1.32T | 1.64T | 879.57B | 1.07T | 914.05B | 789.92B | 979.38B | 1.11T | 1.01T | 635.45B | 806.24B | 933.9B | 488.89B | 257.4B | 630.55B | 336.2B | 161.73B | 893.21B | 792.93B | 814.5B | 657.12B | 641.37B | 670.8B | 552.24B | 418B | 419B | 528.19B | 465.36B | 409.16B |
| Pretax Margin % | -0.4% | -1.85% | 6.08% | 8.04% | 5.2% | 7.35% | 6.94% | 5.29% | 6.16% | 7.26% | 7.19% | 4.35% | 6.38% | 7.89% | 4.95% | 3.24% | 7.06% | 3.92% | 1.62% | 7.46% | 7.15% | 8.22% | 7.59% | 7.86% | 8.43% | 7.52% | 6.35% | 7.1% | 8.58% | 7.7% | 7.75% |
| Income Tax | 3.49B | -50.28B | 414.61B | 459.79B | 162.26B | 309.49B | 218.61B | 279.99B | 303.09B | -13.67B | 327.59B | 229.09B | 245.14B | 267.99B | 178.98B | 135.74B | 206.83B | 146.87B | 109.83B | 386.28B | 283.83B | 317.21B | 266.8B | 252.5B | 244.68B | 230.6B | 181.62B | 164.98B | 226.84B | 202.79B | 188.56B |
| Effective Tax Rate % | -3.85% | 12.47% | 31.47% | 28% | 18.45% | 28.92% | 23.92% | 35.44% | 30.95% | -1.23% | 32.53% | 36.05% | 30.41% | 28.7% | 36.61% | 52.73% | 32.8% | 43.69% | 67.91% | 43.25% | 35.79% | 38.95% | 40.6% | 39.37% | 36.48% | 41.76% | 43.45% | 39.37% | 42.95% | 43.58% | 46.08% |
| Net Income | -169.7B | -423.94B | 835.84B | 1.11T | 651.42B | 707.07B | 657.42B | 455.75B | 610.32B | 1.06T | 616.57B | 344.53B | 509.44B | 624.7B | 367.15B | 211.48B | 534.09B | 268.4B | 137B | 598.27B | 592.4B | 596.99B | 486.41B | 463.93B | 426.12B | 361.78B | 236.38B | 254.02B | 301.35B | 262.57B | 220.6B |
| Net Margin % | -0.75% | -1.94% | 3.85% | 5.42% | 3.85% | 4.86% | 4.99% | 3.05% | 3.84% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.36% | 4.03% | 5.28% | 3.72% | 2.66% | 5.98% | 3.13% | 1.37% | 5% | 5.34% | 6.03% | 5.62% | 5.69% | 5.35% | 4.93% | 3.59% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.34% | 4.18% |
| Net Income Growth % | -126.6% | -150.72% | -24.51% | 69.96% | -7.87% | 7.55% | 44.25% | -25.33% | -42.39% | 71.81% | 78.96% | -32.37% | -18.45% | 70.15% | 73.61% | -60.4% | 98.99% | 95.91% | -77.1% | 0.99% | -0.77% | 22.73% | 4.85% | 8.87% | 17.78% | 53.05% | -6.94% | -15.71% | 14.77% | 19.03% | 209.41% |
| Net Income (Continuing) | -94.1B | -353.02B | 903.03B | 1.18T | 717.31B | 760.7B | 695.44B | 509.93B | 676.29B | 1.13T | 679.39B | 406.36B | 561.1B | 665.91B | 309.92B | 121.67B | 423.72B | 282.61B | 51.9B | 508.4B | 509.02B | 512.72B | 401.7B | 463.93B | 426.12B | 363.24B | 236.33B | 254.02B | 301.35B | 262.57B | 220.6B |
| Discontinued Operations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89.86B | 83.38B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minority Interest | 330.56B | 331.99B | 301.29B | 308.88B | 318.04B | 299.72B | 290.53B | 273.76B | 298.07B | 300.56B | 274.33B | 270.36B | 237.75B | 223.39B | 160.26B | 125.68B | 132.94B | 127.79B | 123.06B | 141.39B | 122.89B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29.31B | 24.88B | 26.64B | 0 |
| EPS (Diluted) | -121.15 | -318.18 | 536.79 | 677.64 | 384.03 | 411.09 | 380.76 | 260.13 | 346.86 | 590.79 | 342.09 | 191.16 | 282.66 | 346.62 | 203.70 | 117.33 | 295.68 | 147.90 | 75.51 | 331.11 | 323.91 | 324.30 | 260.46 | 243.24 | 218.58 | 186.63 | 119.91 | 130.32 | 154.83 | 134.76 | 113.25 |
| EPS Growth % | -131% | -159.27% | -20.79% | 76.45% | -6.58% | 7.97% | 46.37% | -25% | -41.29% | 72.7% | 78.95% | -32.37% | -18.45% | 70.16% | 73.61% | -60.32% | 99.92% | 95.87% | -77.19% | 2.22% | -0.12% | 24.51% | 7.08% | 11.28% | 17.12% | 55.64% | -7.99% | -15.83% | 14.89% | 18.99% | 210.96% |
| EPS (Basic) | - | -318.18 | 536.79 | 677.64 | 384.03 | 411.09 | 380.76 | 260.13 | 346.86 | 590.79 | 342.09 | 191.16 | 282.66 | 346.62 | 203.70 | 117.33 | 295.68 | 147.90 | 75.51 | 331.11 | 323.91 | 324.30 | 260.46 | 243.24 | 218.58 | 186.63 | 119.91 | 130.32 | 154.83 | 134.76 | 113.25 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1.4B | 1.33B | 1.56B | 1.63B | 1.7B | 1.72B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.81B | 1.81B | 1.81B | 1.82B | 1.83B | 1.84B | 1.87B | 1.91B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.97B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.95B |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 1.4B | 1.33B | 1.56B | 1.63B | 1.7B | 1.72B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.81B | 1.81B | 1.81B | 1.81B | 1.83B | 1.84B | 1.87B | 1.91B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.97B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 1.95B |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | - | - | 0.27% | 21.85% | 32.77% | 26.65% | 22.07% | 43.18% | 31.83% | 16.45% | 26.31% | 46.03% | 31.13% | 22.79% | 35.34% | 51.13% | 17.26% | 22.99% | 101.98% | 25.51% | 23.71% | 11.9% | 9.83% | 7.21% | 7.06% | 6.76% | 9.66% | 7.8% | 6.71% | 6.36% | 6.17% |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HMC stock.
For fiscal year 2026, Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) reported total revenue of $21.80T. This represents a 312.8% increase compared to $5.28T in 1997.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) reported a net loss of $423.94B for the fiscal year ending 2026.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) reported an operating income of $-414346.0M, resulting in an operating profit margin of -1.9%. This margin reflects the operational efficiency of the business before interest and taxes.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) generated $3.60T in gross profit for the year, representing a gross profit margin of 16.5%. This demonstrates the company's core pricing power and production efficiency.
Key Metrics
Top Statement Risk
Persistent margin compression and leverage
Revenue Growth Stalls Amid Mixed Drivers
Honda's revenue growth decelerated to 0.5% YoY in the latest quarter, with a 13.5% surge in 2027Q1 masking prior declines, according to recent financial statements.
The 13.5% YoY growth in 2027Q1 appears to be a rebound from a weak prior-year base, as the preceding four quarters showed negative growth ranging from -1.2% to -3.4%. This suggests that Honda is not experiencing sustained volume or pricing momentum, and the flat top-line trend may indicate market share pressures, particularly in China where domestic BEV makers are gaining ground. Investors should monitor whether the recent growth can be sustained or if it is a one-off recovery.
Gross Margin Stability Masks Operating Weakness
Gross margin held near 20-22% over the past year, but operating margin plunged to -1.9% in 2026Q4, indicating that cost pressures are concentrated below the gross line, per reported figures.
The gap between gross margin (16.5% in the latest quarter) and operating margin (-1.9%) is unusually wide, suggesting elevated R&D, SG&A, or one-time charges. The 2026Q4 operating loss of ¥1.0T appears to be driven by a spike in R&D (¥634.9B) and SG&A (¥743.1B), which may reflect restructuring or impairment costs. This implies that Honda's core manufacturing profitability is intact, but overhead and investment spending are eroding earnings, warranting scrutiny of cost discipline.
Operating Leverage Turns Negative
Operating income swung from a positive ¥530.8B in 2027Q1 to a loss of ¥1.0T in 2026Q4, showing that fixed costs are not being absorbed by revenue, as per the latest income statement data.
The volatility in operating income—ranging from -17.3% to +8.8% operating margin—indicates that Honda's high fixed-cost structure amplifies revenue fluctuations. The negative operating leverage in 2026Q4 suggests that the company's cost base is not flexing downward with demand, possibly due to model changeovers or EV investments. This may indicate that Honda's profitability is highly sensitive to volume, and without top-line growth, margin recovery could be challenging.
Earnings Quality Clouded by One-Offs
Net income swung from a loss of ¥889.4B in 2026Q4 to a profit of ¥450.9B in 2027Q1, with EPS growth of 147.5%, but the volatility suggests non-recurring items, based on reported figures.
The extreme swings in net income and EPS—from -677.46 to 347.52—are not typical of core operations and may reflect impairments, tax effects, or other one-time items. The negative ROE of -3.4% in the latest quarter further indicates that the loss is not just a margin issue but a return on equity problem. Investors should adjust for these anomalies to assess underlying earnings power, as the quality of reported earnings appears low.
R&D and SG&A Spikes Pressure Profitability
R&D expenses jumped to ¥634.9B in 2026Q4, up from ¥292.9B in the prior quarter, while SG&A rose to ¥743.1B, indicating a cost surge that drove the operating loss, per the income statement.
The doubling of R&D and a 40% increase in SG&A in 2026Q4 relative to 2026Q1 suggest that Honda is investing heavily in future platforms, possibly the '0 Series' EV, and facing higher selling costs. This cost inflation appears to be a deliberate strategic choice, but it is compressing margins in the near term. Management's expense discipline will be critical to restoring profitability, and investors should monitor whether these elevated costs are temporary or structural.
2026Q4 Marks a Profitability Inflection
The 2026Q4 quarter stands out as a severe inflection point, with operating margin at -17.3% and net margin at -15.3%, the worst in the ten-quarter history, as per the data.
This quarter's massive loss appears to be driven by a combination of high costs and possibly one-time charges, as gross margin was only 6.4%, far below the typical 20% level. The subsequent recovery in 2027Q1 to an 8.8% operating margin suggests that the loss was not a new normal, but the sharp reversal indicates that Honda's earnings are highly volatile. This inflection may reflect a strategic reset, such as restructuring or EV investments, and its lasting impact will depend on whether the company can achieve sustainable cost reductions.
What Could Invalidate the Base Case
The sharp recovery in 2027Q1 may be misleading, as the underlying cost structure and leverage remain elevated, and the negative ROE suggests structural issues, based on reported figures.
Short-sellers could argue that the 2027Q1 rebound is a one-off, given that the preceding quarter's loss was driven by a gross margin collapse to 6.4%, which may indicate inventory write-downs or pricing pressures that could recur. Additionally, the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and negative ROE suggest that Honda's balance sheet is not as resilient as peers, and the flat revenue growth implies that the company is not gaining traction in key markets. If the elevated R&D and SG&A costs persist without corresponding revenue growth, Honda could face a prolonged period of margin compression, making the current valuation appear expensive.